Wisconsin vs. North Texas prediction and odds for NIT Semifinals

North Texas guard Tylor Perry (5) celebrates in overtime during a college basketball game in the quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (OSU) and the North Texas Mean Green at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Tuesday, March 21, 2023.Osu Vs Nt /

The NIT semifinals are on Tuesday, March 28th and pits the only high major team still left in the field, Wisconsin, against Conference USA foe North Texas, who is led by the league’s Player of the Year, Tylor Perry.

The Badgers rallied to beat Oregon on the road last week to punch its ticket to Las Vegas while North Texas needed overtime to win at Oklahoma State to advance to the semis. These two teams had NCAA Tournament aspirations before the season, but will be happy to play for an NIT title game with a win.

Here are the odds for the first of two semifinals games on Tuesday:

Wisconsin vs. North Texas odds, spread and total

Wisconsin vs. North Texas prediction and pick

The total is low, as expected between two teams that play at the 21st (Wisconsin) and the slowest (North Texas) tempo in the entire country.

North Texas’ heavy ball pressure will make Wisconsin’s lack of isolation scoring difficult. The Badgers protect the ball better than any team in the country, but most of its possessions are either post ups or late clock three-point shots as the team’s ball handlers struggle to get separation.

That’s an issue against North Texas, who is top 10 in effective field goal percentage allowed and are elite at limiting three-point attempts. I expect a few shot clock violations from the Badgers on Tuesday night.

On the other end, Wisconsin is strong on the defensive glass (40th in the country), but the Mean Green have the three-point prowess to outpace the prodding Wisconsin offense. UNT is top 70 three-point rate and hits them at over 36%, 73rd nationally.

Not to mention, North Texas is an elite free throw shooting team, over 76% from the charity stripe, while Wisconsin clocks in at 69%, bottom third in the nation. This game is going to have limited possessions and will likely come down to who can execute down the stretch. I’ll go with the better free throw shooting with the elite defense.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.