Transfer Jayden Epps could be a difference-maker for Georgetown

Jayden Epps was mostly overlooked with Illinois but he could be in for a breakout season after transferring to Georgetown.

As Ed Cooley retools his new roster at Georgetown on the fly the Hoyas picked up a transfer commitment from Jayden Epps, one of the top combo guards in the portal this offseason. Epps went through an up-and-down freshman year at Illinois; however, there’s no denying his ability to create his own offense and score from multiple levels of the floor. Let’s dive a little deeper.

Jayden Epps has a game that ebbs and flows

During his freshman campaign, Epps averaged 9.5 points (on 8.6 field goal attempts) and 1.5 assists per game, while shooting 41.4 percent from the floor, 51.0 percent on 2s, 30.1 percent from beyond the arc (9.2 3-point attempts per 100 possessions) and 77.8 percent from the line.

Illinois had some of its best stretches of the season with Epps taking on a larger share of the offense, but his role fluctuated at times. Unfortunately, Epps also missed time late in the season after suffering a concussion.

Brad Underwood’s offense — which featured a lot of Shuffle action and high-post activity — was often led by veteran wing/forward initiators: Terrence Shannon Jr., Coleman Hawkins and Matthew Mayer. That’s a really talented trio; Shannon and Hawkins are legit NBA prospects. However, as the team tried to incorporate three rookie guards, including Sincire Harris (one of the best young perimeter defenders in the country), Illinois never quite found its half-court blend.

That said, there are reasons to be optimistic on Epps as he continues to evolve as a talented shot-maker with plus-scoring upside. Look at his pacing here vs. Virginia: Epps waits out the hedge, then snakes back against UVA’s rotating coverages before finishing with touch at the rim.

Epps was one of only 17 players 6-foot-2 or shorter that shot at least 50 percent on 2-point attempts this season. He’s joined on that list by some rather impressive company, like NBA prospects Marcus Sasser, Mike Miles, Jalen Cook and Bruce Thornton.

Here, Epps relocates behind Kris Murray, another NBA prospect, takes the pass from Hawkins and flows into an empty-corner screen-roll. Iowa switches the action, but Epps is too quick and out-flanks the center.

According to Bart Torvik’s shot data, 78.4 percent of Epps’ 2-point field goals this season were unassisted. Epps isn’t a burner with the basketball, but he’s quick and shifty. When defenders press up, Epps can use his handle and hesitation moves to create pockets of space to attack. There’s some impressive craft to his game. When he’s at his best, Epps flashes a functional handle that allows him to beat guys in space and get north-south.

If the opponent deploys drop coverage, Epps has shown a willingness to chew up that space and attack the rim with good body control. On this possession, Illinois runs Horns Out into slot pick-and-roll for Epps. He attacks talented 6-foot-10 freshman Kebba Njie (3.6 percent block rate) and finishes at the rim.

On this possession, Illinois runs its Shuffle offense into pick-and-roll for Epps, who hits Dain Dainja’s screen at the elbow on the move and scores over the drop coverage with a runner. When Epps is patient but decisive (mixing tempo) coming off the ball screen, he can really do damage as a score.

Getting crafty in the floater zone

Epps isn’t an explosive leaper; in fact, he didn’t record a single dunk this season with Illinois. He’s a below-the-rim finisher, which is why — when faced with a contest at the rim — Epps must use angles and touch to score around length.

If Epps is able to get downhill driving left, he likes to use inside-hand finishes with his right hand, which help shield his layup attempts from shot-blockers. Here, Epps starts double-drag action for Illinois and catches a switch. Epps beats the mismatch, gets skinny enough to get into a cap and, again, uses that inside hand. This is a clever and effective move from Epps.

According to CBB Analytics, Epps attempted 2.0 field goals per game at the rim (within 4.5 feet), which translates to 23.1 percent of his field goal attempts. Epps shot an impressive 72.6 percent on these looks — again on mostly so-so volume.

If he’s unable to gather enough steam and slice his way to the restricted area, Epps has the touch to finish in the short midrange area: inside the paint but away from the rim. Over 19.0 percent of Epps’ field goal attempts came in the paint by away from the rim (outside of 4.5 feet away), which ranked in the 66th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics. Epps shot 40.4 percent on these looks.

Obviously, there’s a bit of a delta between rim field goal percentage and paint field goal percentage. One of those shots is inherently more efficient. So while it’s great that Epps is capable of scoring in weird in-between spaces, it’d be a real boon if he could work to pressure the rim with greater volume. (Cooley’s scheme should help.)

Of course, that’s easier said than done, especially given his size limitations, but it would open up so much other stuff — namely more trips to the line, easier passing opportunities and his step-back jumper.

Illinois scored 107.4 points per 100 possessions and attempted 16.9 field goal attempts at the rim per 40 minutes with Epps on the floor this season, according to CBB Analytics. With Epps on the bench, the offensive rating jumps to 108.8 points per 100 possessions, featuring 21.3 field goal attempts at the rim per 40 minutes. That’s not all on Epps, and there’s plenty of randomness baked into these numbers, but it’s worth nothing.

Say what you will about the foibles of the Illinois offense, but Epps had his share on-ball reps in an offense that played 4 or 5 out. Even then, Epps drew only 2.7 fouls per 40 minutes, according to KenPom, a rate that’s more indicative of a spot-up player, not a primary or secondary initiator. Epps was one of only eight players in the Big Ten this season with a usage rate of 20.0 percent and a FTA rate (the percentage of FTA to FGA) under 20 percent.

Creating more foul-shooting opportunities is critical for a player like Epps. When Epps’ 3-point stroke slipped during Big Ten play (24.6 percent), his overall efficiency took a big hit. It’s hard to sustain on a steady diet of tough off-dribble shots, especially without some avenue of cheap, easy points to buoy things up.

Jayden Epps: The special stuff

The foundational elements of Epps’ offensive profile — just as a baseline — are valuable: pick-and-roll offense requires having guys who can make plays off the bounce. That’s why Epps was once again coveted by Kevin Keatts and NC State, one of the country’s high-volume pick-and-roll offenses, in the portal — before Georgetown won out.

There are times, though, when Epps flashes something beyond decent scoring output on average efficiency. He’ll bust out an isolation or pick-and-roll scoring move with his handle that makes you wonder: “There’s something special here, right?”

I mean, look at Epps bust out this little mid-drive hesitation/stutter move to create separation.

During his prep career, Epps was a prolific scorer. Combine that pedigree with some of his space-creating moves, his ability to heat up and some low-hanging fruit/places to improve, and you must at least consider Epps having an elevated ceiling as a scorer. Just how high does that thing go? The answer to that question is central to Epps’ archetype.

Growth with his 3-point jumper would go a long way for unlocking these interior elements. Epps has a good-looking jumper, and he showed some positive off-ball relocation skills. The results just weren’t necessarily there.

Here’s that same shuffle/elbow action — this time, though, Hawkins touches it out to Epps for a 3.

That development would be a game-changer, though. In the pick-and-roll, with a pull-up 3, defenders wouldn’t be able to go under screens. Once you force defenses to fight over, put two on the ball or switch, so many other things open up.

And in spot-up situations, a hard closeout could allow Epps to tape into more of his catch-and-go game, which makes it easier to get downhill and all the way to the rim: attacking a bent defense instead of set coverages.

Playmaking: Room for growth

Given his craftiness and rhythm with the basketball, Epps profiles as a player who should make plays for others, too. That’s not exactly the case, though. Assists are the ideal indicator to determine a player’s passing ability, but Epps dished out only 2.4 assists per 40 minutes this past season (sub-12 percent assist rate).

Now, part of this can be attributed to offensive systems and personnel. Epps played in an Illinois offense that was organized around a decentralized playmaking environment. Epps certainly got opportunities, but this wasn’t the Illinois team of two seasons ago that flowed through guards Ayo Dosunmu, pass-happy Andre Curbelo and Adam Miller. Again, a lot of activity this season was routed through the post or it was up to Shannon, primarily, to cook when the offense needed some off-dribble juice.

Plus, it certainly didn’t help that Illinois — despite shooting plenty of 3s (41.9 percent of total field goal attempts) — dealt with a season-long power outage from deep: 30.8 percent from beyond the arc (No. 335 nationally). If a few more spot-up 3s go down, various assist and efficiency numbers would perk up.

Epps is obviously wired to score. With that, his best set-up possessions come when he’s able to leverage his scoring gravity pass to an open teammate. Draw two and kick-out or lay it down.

There’s actually some nice visual manipulation here from Epps. Illinois moves its Horns set around so Epps can run pick-and-roll with Dainja while Mayer leaks up to keep the floor spaced. With Iowa switching, Dainja is able to seal and dive, which forces Connor McCaffery to pinch in off the corner shooter. Epps uses his eyes to keep the defense worried about Dainja’s role, and then with everyone sucked in the paint, Epps kicks out for an open corner 3 to Hawkins.

The expectation shouldn’t be for Epps to immediately turn into an A-1 engine of offense, someone who spends most of the game looking set dudes up. He’s a scorer, let him cook and do what he does best. However, given his talent and feel, Epps should be able to take on a larger playmaking share. Epps should push for an assist rate that’s closer to an assist rate of 15-20 percent.

Of course, there’s some risk, too. This scenario could create a potential push-and-pull with NC State’s spread ball screen offense. In theory, Epps would have more funneled playmaking opportunities and reads. On the other hand, things could stall out if it leads to him taking a larger volume of long 2s, without the advanced passing reads to get other guys going.

Ed Cooley and the Georgetown offense

During the 2022-23 season, Cooley assembled the most efficient offense of his coaching career: an adjusted efficiency mark of 116.2 points per 100 possessions, according to KenPom, good for No. 18 in Division I. Obviously, it helped to have an NBA prospect like Bryce Hopkins as a scoring hub in his frontcourt, but the team’s process was very good, too: Providence ran excellent half-court offense.

While it’s an absolute treat to see Cooley, who served as an assistant coach under Al Skinner at Boston College, breakout the tight flex offense in the year 2023, there’s so much more to this playbook than flex, including plenty of pick-and-roll activity for Epps. (Plus, the Friars did a nice job disguising those sets.)

Cooley’s teams will find pick-and-roll action in a variety of contexts: Drag (transition), Horns (Twist and 77), Pistol and continuity ball-screen offense, among others.

Another way to get Epps going is by flowing him into screen-roll exchanges with “Zoom” (or “Chicago”) action: pindown screens into a dribble-handoff (DHO). This allows players to start off ball and then gather some steam and advantage before hitting the handoff screen.

Illinois runs Horns Out, enters the ball to the elbow and then flows Epps into the zoom action. Epps gets the switch and creates an open 3-point attempt.

Here’s a Providence baseline out-of-bounds (BLOB) set: a 1-4 look and the in-bounds passer, Noah Locke, lobbing the ball into play and then immediately sprinting into the Zoom action for a 2.

So far, it’s been an active transition period for Georgetown as the Hoyas tap into the portal to rebuild on the fly. Former UNC hybrid forward Dontrez Styles, who was also targeted by NC State in the portal, is a multi-positional defender with a good frame and upside. After redshirting this season at Texas, Rowan Brumbaugh brings size and a steady handle to the point guard position.

Add in the creation and scoring from Epps, and Cooley is on his way to piecing something real together at his next stop.

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