NBA free agency predictions: Who signs the biggest restricted free agents?

NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign Rui Hachimura?

Rui Hachimura earned a lot of money with his performance in the playoffs. He was essentially the Lakers’ third or fourth-best player during a conference finals run. All the potential scouts once saw in the raw prospect from Gonzaga came bubbling to the surface and he played the best basketball of his career on the biggest possible stage.

The Lakers are reportedly willing to match any Hachimura offer sheet up to $100 million, but that’s easier said than done. The new CBA will make it very difficult for expensive teams to flesh out their rosters. The Lakers already have two max contracts in Anthony Davis and LeBron James, plus another major restricted free agent (and arguably a more important restricted free agent) in Austin Reaves.

Hachimura averaged 11.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and fewer than one assist per game in the regular season. His postseason averages weren’t much better, but he did explode in the conference finals against Denver: 15.3 points and 3.8 rebounds on .533/.333/1.000 splits across four games. Frankly, he’s not the best power forward here — I’m not even convinced he’s better than the aforementioned P.J. Washington. But he was huge in the playoffs for a marquee franchise. Those guys get paid, often far too much.

The teams to watch are Detroit and Indiana. Both teams have a need at power forward. The Pistons need a more modern four who can spread the floor and defend on the perimeter. The Pacers need a legitimate, starting-caliber forward to bolster the frontcourt around Myles Turner. That said, the Lakers continue to broadcast a desire to keep Hachimura and the most likely outcome feels like a reunion.

Prediction: Lakers extension — four years, $75 million