NBA free agency predictions: Who signs the biggest restricted free agents?

NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign Cam Johnson?

Cam Johnson was once upon a time the very controversial No. 11 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Most folks had him pegged in the 20s. He’s not athletic enough. He’s too old. You’ve heard the story before. Flash forward, and Johnson would probably go several spots higher in a re-draft.

The Suns traded Johnson to the Nets as part of the Kevin Durant trade. Post-deadline, Johnson took his 3-and-Ding to a whole new level for Brooklyn. He averaged 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on .468/.372/.851 splits. His three-point numbers were actually way down compared to his career averages. One has to expect that will regress back to the mean. Otherwise, he was more involved than ever in the offense and the results were extremely positive. He beat closeouts with dribble pull-ups, he frequently smoked sleeping defenders backdoor for finishes at the rim, and he supplied steady resistance as a wing defender.

The league is still obsessed conceptually with 3-and-D wings. You need to do more than just shoot and defend, and Johnson has proven that there’s more to his skill set than meets the eye when the opportunities are provided. The Nets want to keep him, but the price tag could get high. He might be the most expensive restricted free agent on the market.

The Spurs have a lot of wing depth. So do the Magic. Johnson would look great in OKC, but how eager is OKC to deplete its financial flexibility? And thus we arrive at the Houston Rockets, who are plainly looking to leave their rebuild behind and start winning games. With or without James Harden, Johnson could appeal to that team in the prime of his career.

Prediction: Rockets offer sheet — four years, $90 million