NBA trade machine: A 3-team Damian Lillard trade that actually works

If Damian Lillard is traded to the Miami Heat, it will almost certainly involve a third team. Here’s what it could look like. 

The Miami Heat are the only team on Damian Lillard’s list of preferred trade destinations. That makes life difficult on Joe Cronin and the Portland Trail Blazers front office; Miami has limited assets to offer and its primary trade chip — Tyler Herro — would be largely redundant in Lillard’s stead.

The Blazers do not want Tyler Herro. If Miami is going to swing a trade, it will almost certainly have to include a third team willing to take on Herro’s four-year, $127 million contract while also giving up something of value in return. Be it a first-round pick or a young player, the Heat won’t get very far in negotiations if Herro isn’t flipped for more assets.

Otherwise, the Heat are in the hardball stage of negotiations right now. Unless a more robust market for Lillard develops, Miami may be able to get away with offering less than top value for the disgruntled All-Star. However, it the Blazers are truly willing to take this into the regular season and force Miami’s hand, the Heat should be willing to empty out their less-than-great trove of assets eventually.

3-team Damian Lillard trade between Portland Trial Blazers, Miami Heat, Toronto Raptors

How the Lillard market actually develops will be fascinating. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, Joe Cronin and the Blazers aren’t bluffing about dragging this out. Lillard has four years left on his contract and Portland needs to nail this trade; there’s no reason to rush from the Blazers’ perspective.

As for Miami, the sooner Lillard is in the building, the better. The sooner he arrives, the more time he has to develop chemistry with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The more time he has to learn Erik Spoelstra’s playbook. The more time he has to enjoy the fruits of #HeatCulture.

Lillard would like the deal done as quickly as possible too, but his opinion probably carries the least weight in negotiations.

The Tyler Herro market has been tepid by all indications. He is owed a lot of money and the Heat made it to the Finals with Herro out of commission. That said, his reputation has probably skewed too far in the wrong direction. The defensive concerns are valid, but he’s a deadly pull-up shooter with real ball-handling equity. Enter the Raptors, who desperately need to balance the offense with a guard of Herro’s nature.

Toronto doesn’t shell out precious draft picks in advance of what could be a retool/rebuild around Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby. Instead, the Blazers are furnished with a quality 3-and-D wing on a juicy expiring contract in Gary Trent Jr., who’s only 24 years old, as well as an intriguing frontcourt athlete in second-year big Christian Koloko.

Miami gives up Kyle Lowry’s expiring contract to match Lillard’s salary. Caleb Martin came up one vote shy of Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Heat don’t want to trade him, but it’s Damian Lillard — you have to give something to get something. Martin would take on a considerable role in Portland’s wing rotation. Nikola Jovic has been the star of Summer League for Miami. He’s a good young piece to further expand Portland’s young core.

The Heat give up two first-round picks and one pick swap, which is hardly anything by recent superstar trade standards. The Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, (initial) James Harden, and Kevin Durant trades all involved 4+ first-round picks. For their troubles, Miami also takes on the remaining three years and roughly $53 million on Jusuf Nurkic’s contract.

Miami will be in cap hell, but they will have Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo under the guidance of Erik Spoelstra. That’s the kind of risk Miami should take after getting so close last season. The Blazers don’t get any elite assets, but they get plenty of good players and picks. The Raptors get Tyler Herro to run DHOs with Scottie Barnes and up their putrid 3-point numbers.

This feels like a win-win-win; or at least the closest Portland can hope for under the circumstances.