The College Football Playoff selection committee is just making things up as it goes at this point. The Week 11 rankings were a clear attempt at course correcting from the previous week's edition, but it may have just made things even worse.
Some teams were dropped more than they probably deserved (Miami fell from No. 1 to No. 7 after a close loss at Notre Dame without its top wideout) and others were positioned to sneak into the 12-team bracket with the right conditions. It also feels like the SEC was given insulation from having two or three-loss teams excluded. Let's start there, by breaking down teams which have had their stocks overinflated.
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama was too high last week and it's too high again despite a win over LSU. There's just no way to justify a two-loss team (that got blown out 26-10 by Tennessee) being five spots ahead of the Volunteers, let alone in position to receive a first-round bye. The Crimson Tide have a cupcake remaining schedule against Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn with the Iron Bowl being the only possible threat to derailing the season. Alabama will have its reckoning, however.
This looks like a team that will get bounced in the quarterfinal. The offense is beyond erratic and inconsistent with quarterback Keelon Russell throwing three interceptions in his last three games and getting sacked nine times in that same span. His offensive line is not a dominant force, and given another serious matchup against an unfamiliar opponent, the Tide are going to run into a similar situation as last year's Rose Bowl.
No. 11 Kentucky Wildcats
Dropping five spots from No. 6 should be the first sign that Kentucky just isn't ready for the Playoff spotlight yet. Head coach Will Stein has over-delivered in his first year at the helm, but this isn't a team that should be positioned as high as it is. The Wildcats were humbled against Tennessee in Week 10 and were coming off a cupcake matchup with Vanderbilt the week before.
Kentucky's two ranked wins are of high quality, but the remaining stretch of its schedule looks more grueling than meets the eye. Florida, No. 22 Missouri and Louisville still await, and there's a high chance Stein's team is going to lose at least one of those contests — if not two. QB Kenny Minchey has been impressive, throwing only two interceptions all year, but the 34-6 drubbing by the Volunteers exposed his and the team's biggest flaws. Kentucky reeks of a team that will be the first left out of the Playoff field.
No. 18 USC Trojans
Their Week 10 "upset" over Ohio State single-handedly saved their season and the job of head coach Lincoln Riley at the same time. It's the only reason the committee is paying them any attention this late in the season. Don't let the bubble talk fool you, though: Two of USC's remaining three games this year are against top-10 foes.
First up is No. 9 Indiana. The Hoosiers inexplicably dropped five spots during their bye week, so don't let that factor in beyond Indiana being better than the committee thinks it is. After an easy matchup with Maryland, the Los Angeles rivalry comes to a head in the final weekend of the regular season when No. 4 UCLA hosts the Trojans at the Rose Bowl. It's entirely likely USC drops one or both of those tough matchups, eliminating it from playoff contention entirely. If the Trojans pull off a perfect 3-0 finish to the year, then we'll talk about their title chances.
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