The 2026-27 college football season will offer many programs that struggled last year an opportunity at redemption. One of those teams is the Penn State Nittany Lions who finished 7-6 overall and 12th (3-6) in the Big Ten conference. That was way off the preseason projection of a College Football Playoff berth.
Their slow start cost head coach James Franklin his job and salt was rubbed in the wounds of fans when star quarterback Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury. The team now has a new head coach who brought his star QB with him and had to deal with Franklin enticing many of his old players and recruits down South to his new home at Virginia Tech. Despite a lot of hope, the odds are against Penn State this year.
3. Head coach Matt Campbell isn't ready for the pressure
Former Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is really good at what he does. The Cyclones only missed out on a bowl game twice during his nine-year tenure. He accrued a 72-55 career record in Ames, which included two trips to the Big 12 title game and a New Year's Six bowl game victory. That's admirable, but had he been with a Big Ten team like Penn State and not delivered a conference title like he failed to do for Iowa State, he would've suffered the same fate as Franklin.
Now he is with a Big Ten team and will inherit the pressure and expectations laid on Franklin's shoulders. It will be the greatest test of Campbell's career. He'll be expected to win the big games and deliver trophies every year — especially the program's first Big Ten title since 2016. If he can't adapt quickly and successfully, his tenure will be much shorter than his predecessor.
2. QB Rocco Becht can't handle Big Ten defenses
The stadium pulse is a real thing in college football and Happy Valley is known to be one of the toughest environments to play in. Thankfully, that'll be Rocco Becht's home field, but the rest of the Big Ten is well known for similar settings. Those are aided by some of the best defenses in the sport too. Becht had his fair share of turnover issues while playing in the Big 12 conference — 27 career interceptions, 18 of them in the last two seasons alone. That won't be acceptable in the Big Ten.
Last year, Big Ten defenses combined for 239 forced turnovers in 2025. Only two teams recorded less than 20 sacks and that should scare Becht who suffered a career-high 21 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Penn State lost a significant number of starters to Franklin and Virginia Tech, including on the offensive line. Campbell did his best to restock but it's not going to be enough to prevent a rough final season for Becht.
1. The schedule is tough and unpredictable
The expectation floor for Penn State always hovers at double-digit wins. Its schedule this year provides that opportunity, but the reality is there are too many unpredictable games. At a glance there are six contests that should be wins for the Nittany Lions (Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland) and two that are very likely losses (USC and Michigan).
It's the four remaining games that feel like toss ups (Wisconsin, Northwestern, Washington and Minnesota) depending on how well Campbell and Becht assimilate to the Big Ten. It's not very encouraging that Penn State would have to sweep them all to reach the 10-win threshold.
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