With an expanded College Football Playoff field, there’s a greater number of really impressive teams who will have a shot at getting in and competing for a national title. But still, there's no guarantee that everyone who is really, really good will actually get in. Even with the expansion to 12 teams helping make things more accessible in theory, there’s a group of teams that will end up sitting around 9-3 to 10-2 at the end of the year and several of those teams will instead end up in a bowl.
Just ask the 2025 Texas Longhorns, who beat the Oklahoma Sooners (a CFP team) and the Texas A&M Aggies (a CFP team), but lost to Florida (a really bad team) and ended up at 9-3 and was ultimately left out of the field. And then there’s the Michigan Wolverines, who were just flat out consistently good throughout the season but couldn’t get more than nine wins and ultimately got flattened by Texas in the Citrus Bowl.
Just because you have a good season and a solid team doesn’t guarantee you anything. So, here’s a collection of teams that could certainly end up in that same sort of scenario of being on the outside looking in this coming season.
5. Utah Utes
There’s so much to be intrigued about with Utah this coming season. The Utes are getting Devon Dampier back (and he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country), but they’ll still have to navigate an interesting Big 12 schedule that includes matchups with the Houston Cougars, BYU Cougars, Arizona Wildcats, and TCU Horned Frogs.
If Utah makes it to the Big 12 championship game, then the Utes will likely be matched up with the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who were the only Big 12 team to make the College Football Playoff a season ago after beating an 11-win BYU team that got left out.
Oh, and Utah gets to navigate this sort of schedule with a first-time head coach.
I think Utah is going to be good, but there’s so little margin for error for a team from this conference.
4. Auburn Tigers
There’s a coaching change here. Like the Utah Utes, the folks over at Auburn made a coaching change (though with slightly different circumstances). And like Utah, there’s a fair bit of talent that resides at Auburn right now. With Alex Golesh leading the Tigers, there’s a real chance that Auburn becomes fun in a hurry.
But the schedules in the SEC aren’t ever really all that easy.
After starting with the Baylor Bears in Atlanta and then returning home to face the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Auburn will get to play the likes of the Florida Gators, Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Volunteers, Georgia Bulldogs, and Ole Miss Rebels. Those last three games being on the road.
Oh, and also a road at Mississippi State and then the Iron Bowl. Which is also on the road. That’s tough.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Back in the Big 12 with a team that is going to be really, really fun to keep up with: the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
While the Cowboys aren’t guaranteed any sort of success this year as they welcome a new head coach (shoutout to Eric Morris) and a bunch of new names on its roster (shoutout to everyone who left North Texas and Denton behind), there’s certainly a path for Oklahoma State to be successful this season. After all, they did just import much of what made UNT a 12-win team.
But unfortunately for Morris and the Cowboys, Oklahoma State has the Oregon Ducks on its schedule. That could be a good thing for CFP chances if they can find a way to pull off the upset. But that’s a tough thing to ask for.
Oklahoma State also has road games against West Virginia, Houston, and Arizona State to think about here and also a matchup with Texas Tech. That’s tough. And like Utah, there’s not much room to make a mistake in the Big 12 and still get into the CFP.
2. Michigan Wolverines
Hey look, another team with a new head coach. Another team with a lot of talent. Another team with a tricky schedule that makes it difficult for them to make it into the College Football Playoff field without something weird and bizarre happening.
The Michigan Wolverines are going to be good this season, but will they be good enough to overcome the likes of facing the Oklahoma Sooners, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Indiana Hoosiers? Thankfully for Michigan, those three matchups are at home.
But there are also road games against the Oregon Ducks and the Ohio State Buckeyes.
This team, like a couple of really good recent Michigan teams, could potentially accomplish quite a bit, but unless it wins double-digit games this season, making it into the College Football Playoff seems unlikely.
1. Florida Gators
And you guessed it, another team with a brand new head coach that will get the distinct pleasure of trying to get through a really tough schedule. There’s a chance that Florida drastically improves from last season to this year and still ends up on the bubble because of how good some of the Gators’ opponents are.
A road trip to the Auburn Tigers will be fun to watch because of the CFP implications at play in that matchup. Then there’s also a game at home against the Ole Miss Rebels (who look capable of getting back to the CFP again this season), a road trip to the Missouri Tigers, and a road trip to face Texas in Austin.
That’s not even counting the fact that Florida gets to play Georgia in Jacksonville and also has to play the Oklahoma Sooners before getting Florida State (who might be good but might also be a disaster) to wrap up the regular season.
Win enough through all of that and you get into the College Football Playoff without much of a problem. But is that possible? Can the Gators survive enough of that slate of games to get in?
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