The Texas Longhorns tumbled from No. 1 in the nation to a two-loss team over a two-week span — and, if they were a member of any other conference other than the SEC, their postseason hopes would be on life support. Yet, there is still hope — albeit slim — for Texas to vie for a national title, even if they don't deserve it anymore.
Quarterback Arch Manning is hemorrhaging NFL Draft stock at a frightening pace, and his late fourth-quarter fumble that sealed Saturday's 27-24 loss to unranked Florida (at home, no less) was the latest example of that. He's had opportunity after opportunity to stabilize his performance, but his inconsistency is costing his team valuable games.
So, what is the path forward for Texas and head coach Steve Sarkisian? This is clearly the worst part of the season for the fans, but the program itself still has six games remaining. And the vast majority of them are not as winnable as the last two were supposed to be.
Texas' CFP path after Florida upset: Longhorns can't afford any more mistakes
Sarkisian needs to give his guys time to reset. Unfortunately, Texas already had its bye two weeks ago. A turnaround, if it's going to happen, must be quick, as the Longhorns' next six opponents all offer tough and unique challenges. Here's how things stack up going forward:
- Oct. 24 vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
- Oct. 31 vs. No. 16 Mississippi State
- Nov. 7 at No. 13 Missouri
- Nov. 14 at No. 22 LSU
- Nov. 21 vs. Arkansas
- Nov. 27 at Texas A&M
Now, the rankings on a couple of those opponents are going to change, but that doesn't make them any less dangerous. In fact, Ole Miss could deliver the knockout punch for Texas by handing it a third consecutive loss on Oct. 24.
Things could get so bad that Texas may be scraping for bowl eligibility by the time it reaches the final two weeks of the season. But if you're on the optimistic side, there is still a path for the Longhorns to reach the College Football Playoff — if only just barely.
Texas is likely to slip from No. 7 to somewhere outside the top 12 in next week's poll, maybe even the top 15, after two consecutive losses to unranked teams. Yet, pulling off an upset of its own over Ole Miss — who could take the Longhorns' old spot or higher in the next poll — would add to Texas' resume, which already contains a win over a previous No. 1 team in the nation (Ohio State). Follow that up by taking care of business against a Mississippi State team that could still be without star QB Kamario Taylor, and Texas is right back in business at 6-2. That's the benefit of having the SEC badge on your jersey to keep you afloat all year long.
The Bulldogs will probably be unranked by that point and, thus, won't boost Texas' resume with another ranked win. Missouri and LSU should still be up there by November, which will make things extremely interesting. Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz is known to choke when the fall foliage is past its peak and LSU is not the SEC juggernaut everyone thought it'd be in the preseason. Take both of those foes down, and Texas now has five ranked wins under its belt.
Assuming the Longhorns finish this final stretch undefeated, that kind of body of work — regardless of the bad losses — cannot be ignored by the CFP selection committee. There is a scenario where Texas can sneak into the 12-team bracket as high as the No. 4 seed if — and only if — it runs the table, SEC teams like Kentucky and Tennessee suffer multiple losses and the Longhorns somehow upset Georgia in the conference title game (perhaps the last one in SEC history).
That best-case scenario is extremely unlikely, of course. The one that is most probable is Texas earning the No. 10 seed and not participating in the SEC title game but finishing within the top four in the conference standings. That would also require non-conference "bid stealers" to suffer their own late-season stumbles. There is hope, Longhorns fans, but it looks like it could all go down the drain in one week's time.
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