It's only natural to overreact to the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year. After sitting in silence for two months, it's our first glimpse into what the selection committee is thinking, and how highly (or not so highly) they view all the teams jockeying for a spot in the final 12-team bracket. Find out you're suddenly lower than expected, and you're bound to think the sky is falling.
But it's important to remember that these CFP rankings are really just theater for the benefit of ESPN, a non-binding snapshot of a moment in time. Where you rank at the start of November might have very little to do with where you wind up come the final reveal in December. In fact, several Playoff hopefuls wringing their hands on the bubble right now — hi, Notre Dame! — should rest easy knowing that everything will sort itself out as long as they take care of some very standard business.
Ole Miss
- Current CFP rank: No. 10
- Remaining schedule: vs. No. 2 Georgia, at Oklahoma, vs. Wofford, vs. Mississippi State
Granted, beating Georgia is never a walk in the park. But if anybody knows the recipe, it's Ole Miss, which just saw Trinidad Chambliss drive Kirby Smart's defense crazy in last year's Playoff. Plus, Saturday's showdown will take place in Oxford, where the Rebels haven't lost since September of 2024. They'll have the best quarterback, and maybe the best player, on the field, and it's not like Georgia's offense is setting the world on fire right now.
Plus, if the Rebels do find a way to get a win this weekend, their CFP odds will skyrocket. The closing schedule is a walk in the park, from a trip to a 4-4 Oklahoma to a SoCon Saturday spot against Wofford to the Egg Bowl against a Mississippi State team that's drawing dead without Kamario Taylor. And even if Ole Miss were to take a third loss in the SEC title game, we know from recent history that the committee won't hold it against them.
Notre Dame
- Current CFP rank: No. 11
- Remaining schedule: vs. No. 1 Miami, vs. Boston College, vs. SMU, at Syracuse
Notre Dame is in largely the same boat, minus the conference considerations. For all the gnashing of teeth about the Irish landing right on the edge of the bracket at No. 11, everything is still very much in front of them. Beat top-ranked Miami in South Bend on Saturday night, and there's very little standing between you and a return to the Playoff.
With SMU proving as unreliable as ever, only a trip to Syracuse looms as a potential road block, and it's hard to take that threat too seriously. Of course, the flip side of that easy road is that a loss to the Canes would essentially lock Notre Dame out; a 10-2 finish with likely zero ranked wins wouldn't move the committee much in such a crowded year. But if they simply take care of business one time on the field, none of the rest matters. That shouldn't be too hard for a title contender, right?
Ohio State
- Current CFP rank: No. 12
- Remaining schedule: vs. No. 23 Oregon, vs. Northwestern, at Nebraska, vs. Michigan
Ohio State is no doubt the shakiest entry on this list, as anyone who watched their loss to USC on Saturday night can attest. Luke Fahey's first career start in place of Julian Sayin was less than auspicious, and the lack of help he got from the rest of his team hardly inspired confidence moving forward. But the fact remains that the Buckeyes should be favored in all four of their remaining games if they were played today, and if they win out, they'll no doubt have a spot in the final bracket — even if they take a third loss in the Big Ten title game.
Of course, if you don't have much faith in a 4-0 finish, I can't really blame you. None of Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan are overwhelming, but all of them are at least solid, and certainly good enough to beat Ohio State if they play the way they did last weekend. Still, if Ryan Day has built the sort of program his defenders insist on, this is more than doable.
Tennessee
- Current CFP rank: No. 13
- Remaining schedule: vs. No. 6 Kentucky, at Texas A&M, vs. No. 14 LSU, at Vanderbilt
I have real questions about Tennessee's ceiling as long as their passing game remains stuck in the mud with George MacIntyre at QB. But this defense and this running game are both elite, a formula that the Vols have already ridden to a win over Alabama. And the schedule does Josh Heupel's team a slight favor, with both of their remaining ranked games coming at home.
Kentucky comes to Knoxville this Saturday at 7-1, but it's hard not to feel like the Cats are due for another loss given the high-wire act they've been pulling in recent weeks. LSU is playing as well as just about anybody at the moment, but they'll visit Tennessee after consecutive top-10 showdowns against Alabama and Texas. Neither will be easy, but both set up pretty well, and sweeping the pair will essentially guarantee the Vols a Playoff berth assuming they don't stumble at A&M (potentially) or Vanderbilt (don't count on it).
USC
- Current CFP rank: No. 20
- Remaining schedule: at No. 4 Indiana, vs. Maryland, at No. 8 UCLA
I don't trust Lincoln Riley teams as far as I can throw them just as a matter of personal policy, but the seas have parted pretty remarkably for the Trojans. They take a dreaded trip east to take on Indiana in two weeks, but they'll have a bye week to prepare and the Hoosiers appear ripe for the taking with Josh Hoover's health up in the air. And no disrespect to unbeaten UCLA, but there's still a ton we don't know about them as national contenders; would anyone really be surprised if USC won that game in front of a Rose Bowl crowd that will be at least 50-50?
And yet, both of them will count as top-10 (or, at worst, top-15) wins, at which point the Trojans will be 10-2 and likely headed to the Big Ten title game with a pretty facially impressive resume. Add in the brand equity, and that's a Playoff lock. You know, assuming Riley doesn't find a way to lay an egg first.
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