The preseason AP Top 25 college football rankings will officially be released on Monday, Aug. 17 at Noon ET. That will mark just under two weeks until Week 0 gets underway and, thus, slightly less than three weeks before we get to Labor Day weekend and a loaded Week 1 in college football. But that's not going to stop of us from predicting how the AP voters will construct the Top 25 rankings.
At the end of the day, preseason college football rankings are essentially a group think of what people believe will happen. The rankings and our thoughts will evolve over the first month of the season as we get to see the best teams in the country compete. For now, though, this is what we're projecting the preseason AP Top 25 to look like based on everything we know leading into the season.
25. Louisville Cardinals
Especially in a wide-open ACC, the Louisville Cardinals have to feel good about Jeff Brohm leading the way given the talent he now has. Lincoln Kienholz could be a revelation, especially with star running back Isaac Brown and transfer receiver Tre Richardson aiding the cause. I do still worry about this Louisville defense in terms of the ceiling, but this is a team with a clear path to Charlotte.
24. Missouri Tigers
It absolutely feels like you can believe in the floor of Eli Drinkwitz's Missouri Tigers this year. Austin Simmons feels like a terrific fit in this system, and when Ahmad Hardy is healthy, we know he's one of the best running backs in college football. The ceiling for Mizzou may come down to when Hardy is fully cleared to play and, more crucially, if the transfers can gel on the defensive side of the ball.
23. Clemson Tigers
The vibes in Clemson, South Carolina are currently horrendous, and Dabo Swinney isn't doing all that much to help himself. At the same time, Christopher Vizzina ultimately represents a large-scale reset for the Tigers this season, something they probably need. The one thing that Clemson can't afford is to continue the tailspin of a team that fell woefully short of expectations last year, but I'm confident they'll bounce back, even if not to title-caliber levels.
22. Iowa Hawkeyes
Especially with seemingly dire questions at quarterback, I'm not sure that Iowa should enter the season as one of the 25 best teams in the country according to the rankings. But I also think that Kirk Ferentz's level of consistency, especially with Phil Parker's defense, will earn them a spot in the rankings. If either Hank Brown or Jeremy Hecklinski is anything viable, the Hawkeyes have the talent to be frisky.
21. Utah Utes
Utah quarterback Devon Dampier should be one of your favorite players in the country. The guy is absolutely electric as a runner and improviser. The problem is that Kyle Whittingham's departure has left the Utes a bit barren in terms of returning talent. Morgan Scalley has long been the coach in waiting, but he'll have to get quite a lot of new pieces to coalesce. That's not to say he can't, but it does present a challenge for Utah as they try to keep pace with Texas Tech and BYU in the Big 12.
20. Tennessee Volunteers
Mark me down as someone who simply doesn't believe in this year's Tennessee team. Whether it's Faizon Brandon or George MacIntyre at quarterback, Josh Heupel's offense is bankable. At the same time, I'm not ready to say it'll be lethal firepower just yet. But the bigger concern is on defense. Jim Knowles is a stud coordinator, but history says his scheme can take a year or so to click. For a unit that declined drastically from 2024 to 2025, that timeline could be a hindrance this season.
19. SMU Mustangs
The return of Kevin Jennings as a third-year starter for SMU is a great place to start. And let's not forget, this is a team that actually toppled Miami in the regular season last year. So there's good reason to take Rhett Lashlee's Mustangs seriously again. There has been coaching turnover along with the transfer turnover we've come to expect in the DFW, but there's a track record here to believe in.
18. Penn State Nittany Lions
On the one hand, Penn State has a bevy of opportunities ahead of them with an easy Big Ten schedule. Furthermore, Matt Campbell is a proven Power Four head coach who brought Rocco Becht and the majority of the top end of his Iowa State roster from last season. But my question remains: What's the ceiling of this team? Everything mentioned gives the Nittany Lions a high floor, but there might be some trepidation about if Penn State can truly compete atop the conference.
17. Washington Huskies
Make no mistake, Demond Williams is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country who is joined by a strong defense, good offensive line and a skill-position group that lost big names but has done a quality job replacing them. But Jedd Fisch's Washington still needs to prove its ceiling, as well as prove that Williams' will-he, won't-he transfer saga doesn't have any lingering ill effects in the locker room. Still, the best version of the Huskies is highly intriguing.
16. Michigan Wolverines
Kyle Whittingham was probably the best that Michigan could get given the unceremonious and untimely exit of Sherrone Moore. He brings an exciting offense for Bryce Underwood to operate, as well as having a defense that should have a say in who is the Big Ten's best on that side of the ball. Still, given all of the turmoil and the development still needed for Underwood, one does have to wonder how good the Wolverines will actually be this season or if this is a build for the 2027 season.
15. BYU Cougars
BYU was scratching at the door of the College Football Playoff and the Big 12 Championship Game last season, but came up a step short of Texas Tech. The returnees for the Cougars, however, make them a real threat again. Bear Bachmeier will need to take a realistic step forward in the passing game to reach a new level, but the rushing attack alongside L.J. Martin and a good defense should have them threatening to win the conference once again.
14. USC Trojans
Admittedly, I'm a bit more bullish on USC than most. While some offensive line injuries have caused that belief to waver at least slightly, Jayden Maiava and this collection of skill talent is enticing in the Lincoln Riley offense. The hope is that the Trojans defense can continue establishing its new identity without D'Anton Lynn in the building, but the pieces are there for USC to play spoiler in the Big Ten this year.
13. Alabama Crimson Tide
The flip side of USC for me is this Alabama team. Signs point to Keelon Russell being QB1, which I believe is the right choice for the Crimson Tide to reach a meaningful ceiling. Even then, though, the number of questions on both lines coming into the season is both unfamiliar in Tuscaloosa and quite concerning for a team that struggled to run the ball last year and could be breaking in a fresh quarterback. Especially in the SEC, Alabama could be knocked down a peg if things don't all break right at once.
12. LSU Tigers
Just a simple path to get to the 2026 LSU football season, right? Oh wait, it was exceptionally tumultuous to get Lane Kiffin to Baton Rouge. Two things that can't be denied, however, are the talent of this Tigers roster amid a multitude of transfers and the prowess that Kiffin and his coaching cohorts proved at Ole Miss. LSU has the goods to win a national championship from where I'm sitting, but that's only if they avoid the pitfalls of the three-ring circus of their own creation.
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Brendan Sorsby ordeal has seemingly taken up all the oxygen around Texas Tech this season. But let's not pretend that, even with Will Hammond instead of Sorsby, this isn't the favorite to win the Big 12 this season. Even if the defense takes a step back from the historic unit the Red Raiders boasted a year ago, it will only be a slight one. But the offense should make a meaningful progression to help either even that out or, as is the hope in Lubbock, help them make a leap into true national contender status.
10. Ole Miss Rebels
There's precisely no questioning what the lead duo at Ole Miss of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy are made of. They were legitimate superstars in the Rebels' run through the CFB Playoff last year and are now back in Oxford after electing not to follow Lane Kiffin to LSU. Even with the coaching turnover, the talent of these two studs should be considered a bankable commodity for this team — the problem is I'm not sure what else is bankable.
In a small sample size, you have to like what you've seen from Pete Golding, but that's without a full offseason and coaching a full season. That's a question mark, as is the coaching turnover around him. Furthermore, the defense is likely to take a step back after some critical departures, which was a sneaky big boon for the Rebels last season. I still think Ole Miss is going to be good, but it's rather a question of how good they can be given everything they've lost.
9. Texas A&M Aggies
There are few teams in college football season I'm more comfortable in the floor of than the Texas A&M Aggies. Head coach Mike Elko has more than earned the benefit of the doubt, particularly on defense, as he's proven he's able to make good on the big-time talent that he and his staff have been able to get to College Station. It's also a situation in which Holmon Wiggins getting the reins on offense could be an upgrade from Collin Klein.
In any case, however, there are still some concerns about Marcel Reed. He's a dynamic dual-threat player, but he also left a ton of meat on the bone in the passing offense last year. A&M has the weapons to be a dangerous team at all levels, but it all depends on the progression that Reed makes from last year. That causes some concern about this team's overall ceiling on a national scale, but there's plenty of proof that they seem pretty safe from any kind of regression.
8. Oklahoma Sooners
In some ways, Oklahoma and Texas A&M are similar — namely in the fact that there's enough evidence to bank on a high floor for this team. Since Brent Venables took over in Norman, the Sooners have put forth one of the best defenses in the country. That's not something that anyone should expect to subside in the 2026 season. But also similar to the Aggies is the fact that the offense has some worries as well.
Admittedly, John Mateer having two fully functional hands should be a good starting point for offensive improvement. However, both the quarterback and young offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle still have a plethora of questions to answer after wild inconsistency on that side of the ball a year ago. That being said, if things truly click in year two on that side of the ball, Oklahoma should be able to compete with almost anyone in the country.
7. Miami Hurricanes
On the heels of their CFP National Championship Game appearance last season, there's still quite a lot to like about the Miami Hurricanes. With the dynamic ability of Darian Mensah, it's not hard to see a path to this offense being even more explosive than it was a year ago, especially with Mark Fletcher Jr. and Malachi Toney back in the fold. And retaining both coordinators is huge for Mario Cristobal.
The big concern for the Hurricanes this season, though, is the defense. That's not to say it's going to be a problem — far from it. However, the tone-setting force that Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor provided is hard to replace. Damon Wilson should be a big help in that department, but it's likely that we see Miami take a step back there. That shouldn't hinder this team from winning the ACC (though it would be for the first time since joining the league), but it does raise questions about whether a national title game repeat is in the cards.
6. Indiana Hoosiers
Obviously, expecting TCU transfer Josh Hoover to come to Bloomington and be Fernando Mendoza is just flat-out unfair. The bigger question for Indiana on the heels of their undefeated national championship is whether Hoover can be good enough to keep the Hoosiers in the same mix. He certainly has the talent around him with Nick Marsh joining Charlie Becker and with Turbo Richard coming in from Boston College.
However, that offensive upside is paired with a surer bet on Bryant Haines' defense, which is why the Hoosiers are this high. Indiana lost some studs in the likes of D'Angelo Ponds, but they're still largely returning last year's defense and have added even more to the fray. Oh, and let's not forget that if you Google Curt Cignetti, it's going to tell you what he told you: He wins. It's becoming harder and harder to bet against the Hoosiers keeping this thing rolling.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
While C.J. Carr was quite impressive last season with Notre Dame, much more is going to be asked of the quarterback in South Bend this season as the Fighting Irish face the departures of both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The rushing attack will be less the heart of this offense in the 2026 season, but the real truth of the matter is that Boubacar Taore and Leonard Moore, among several others, leading the defense will be the calling card of Marcus Freeman's team this year.
What's going to be interesting for Notre Dame this season is how they navigate the schedule. There are truthfully only three games throughout the entire season (at BYU, vs. Miami, vs. SMU) that fans are even threatened by. That's both a gift and a curse for this team, but it could be a case where we are still uncertain about how the Irish stack up against the truly elite teams in the country until we get to the College Football Playoff.
4. Georgia Bulldogs
One of the most fascinating aspects of this year's Georgia team is that we probably don't have a viable Heisman Trophy contender on the roster. However, the reason behind that isn't a lack of talent for Kirby Smart in Athens. Instead, it's how this team is constructed. The Bulldogs figure to have one of the most lethal and multi-faceted rushing offenses in the country, led by Gunner Stockton and Nate Frazier, but with several others involved. That will limit the passing attack, but it's going to be hard for most teams to stop.
More than that, this feels like a true Georgia identity in that they'll win with controlling the game on the ground and then having elite defensive talent. That's the big question for me, though: Will this Dawgs defense actually live up to its talent? I remain dubious of defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann at this point, but if he can get this group to play to its ceiling, then Georgia is a clear national title contender.
3. Texas Longhorns
Look for a more talented roster in the country than Texas. Oregon is probably the only team, top-to-bottom, that even has an argument to challenge the Longhorns for that title. However, if we're projecting the behavior of the AP Top 25 and the voters, there is always going to be some hesitancy to trust Texas because they've been burned so many times, including last year. That's why they end up as the No. 3 in these predictions rather than as the No. 1 team.
And to be fair, those concerns are warranted. "Big Game Sark" is still the largely deserved derogatory moniker for head coach Steve Sarkisian, Arch Manning needs to put together an entire season, there's a defensive coordinator change to Will Muschamp that could constitute a learning curve, and the Longhorns certainly need Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers to spark their run game. The thing is, Texas has the talent in the building to answer all those questions with aplomb and finally end the year as national champs once again.
2. Oregon Ducks
As mentioned, Oregon is a monster on paper. That's what happens when a quarterback who many projected to be the No. 2 overall pick in last year's draft had he not returned to Eugene, Dante Moore, comes back to school. Throw in the highly touted skill position talent and a defense that has been on an upward trajectory, both performance and talent-wise, since Dan Lanning's arrival, and the Ducks look the part of a national contender.
Here's the thing, though: There's still an underlying lack of trust, at least on my part, in Oregon. Lanning's issues in rematches are a glaring issue, and there's a small track record of postseason success at this point. This roster is better, no doubt, but now Lanning tries to get over the hump while replacing both Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi at the coordinator spots. Again, the players are more than capable, but the Ducks still have to prove that between the chalk.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Point blank, it's incredibly hard to find paths that lead to Ohio State not being damn good this season. Julian Sayin may have been mediocre in big games last year, but he has more experience under his belt and the help of Jeremiah Smith and running back Bo Jackson working with him. And if Chris Henry Jr. hits as a true freshman, that's going to make the offense even more dangerous. That's especially true with an offensive line that made strides throughout last season.
Furthermore, the defense should be well above average, and you can't discount the notion that having two NFL coordinators in Arthur Smith and Matt Patricia won't be a huge advantage for the Buckeyes this season. At the same time, this feels so much like a similar team to last year's, which obviously fell short of the national championship game. Maybe we see them elevate with the new OC and progress from Sayin, but that is a lingering question, no doubt.
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