College football rankings: Projected AP Top 25 after Florida, Mississippi State arrive, Texas and Oregon prevail

Projected AP Top 25 College Football Rankings after Week 4

1. No. 25-21
2. No. 20-16
3. No. 15-11
4. No. 10-9
5. No. 8-7
6. No. 6-5
7. No. 4-3
8. No. 2-1

On a Saturday in which we had college football promising us six matchups between teams ranked inside the AP Top 25, we knew that chaos was going to reign. And after Florida took down Ole Miss in The Swamp, Texas narrowly survived Tennessee's upset bid, Oregon continued its ownership of USC (even while losing Dante Moore), Mississippi State announced its presence by beating Missouri and so much more, we have some big shakeups and changes coming to the college football rankings after Week 4.

That's also before we even mention LSU beating the brakes off of Texas A&M, both Louisville and Penn State getting upset and so much more from this wild, wacky week of college football. So let's dive into our projections for the AP Top 25 college football rankings to see how we believe and predict the voters will construct the latest poll.

Dropped Out of Rankings: 16 Louisville Cardinals, 23 Texas A&M Aggies

No. 25-21

25. Kentucky Wildcats

• Last Rank: Unranked
• Result: def. South Alabama, 45-21
• Record: 3-1

While beating Texas A&M may not be a win over a currently ranked team after Week 4, Kentucky has looked the part. Their one loss came against a clearly quite good Alabama team, and they have handled business against the Aggies and now South Alabama. Don’t get me wrong, I do believe there are limitations when it comes to the Wildcats’ ceiling in year one under Will Stein, but it’s becoming apparent in a hurry that this isn’t your dad’s Kentucky.

24. Missouri Tigers

• Last Rank: 19
• Result: lost to Mississippi State, 31-24
• Record: 3-1

Taking a loss this early in the season isn't good, obviously, but you can't knock Mizzou too heavily. They went on the road to Starkville and had a chance to win the game against the upstart Bulldogs. They came up short after allowing two unanswered touchdown drives late in the game, but Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers proved that they aren't going to be an easy out for just about anyone in the SEC this season.

23. Houston Cougars

• Last Rank: 25
• Result: def. Georgia Southern, 42-28
• Record: 3-1

I wouldn’t exactly say that Houston going on the road to now 1-3 Georgia Southern and scraping out a 42-28 win is what I’d call covering yourself in glory, but it was a road win on the heels of a brutal loss to Texas Tech last week. The spot on the schedule matters and the Cougars have still shown enough to be worthy of being ranked. I don’t think we see much change with them, though they might get leapt by a couple of other teams after this week.

22. Michigan Wolverines

• Last Rank: 18
• Result: lost to Iowa, 20-19
• Record: 3-1

Look, if it were me filling out an AP ballot, Michigan would not be on it. The win over Oklahoma looks less impressive with each passing week, we all know what happened against Western Michigan, and now they have an actual loss to Iowa. But the fact that they surged back into the Top 20 and lost to a ranked opponent on the final play almost surely means that the Wolverines are going to hang onto a spot in the rankings. Just know that I personally don’t believe in this team in the slightest. 

21. Penn State Nittany Lions

• Last Rank: 13
• Result: lost to Wisconsin, 24-20
• Record: 3-1

One of the things I said last week about Penn State was that I was still waiting to see what Matt Campbell’s team looked like when they played somebody. Well, I’m not even saying Wisconsin is somebody, but they were the Nittany Lions’ first Power Four opponent — and their first loss, as fate would have it. I don’t think Penn State is a bad team by any stretch, but it did feel a bit like propping them up because of the coaching change when the parts of the roster were on the fringe of Top 25 in the sport, but probably not Top 15.

No. 20-16

20. Oklahoma State Cowboys

• Last Rank: Unranked
• Result: def. West Virginia, 41-24
• Record: 3-1

Debuting in the AP Top 25 at No. 20 is quite ambitious, but I think it's possible for Oklahoma State given the big shakeups around college football. Not only did the Cowboys stave off West Virginia and then pull away while on the road in hostile Morgantown, but they were also able to do so while their upset win over Oregon now looks even better than it did before. The loss to Tulsa is still a black mark, but don't sleep on Eric Morris and this team for one second. They're for real.

19. SMU Mustangs (Still Playing vs. Missouri State)

• Last Rank: 22
• Result: TBD
• Record: 2-1

Licking their wounds after dropping a tough game to Louisville, I didn’t expect SMU to necessarily come out of the gate like gangbusters against a clearly lesser opponent like Missouri State. Still, the Mustangs most certainly need Kevin Jennings to show of his veteran experience more often than he has to this point, especially with the Cardinals now making the ACC race that much more interesting with their loss to Wake Forest on Saturday.

18. USC Trojans

• Last Rank: 12
• Result: lost to 20 Oregon, 41-27
• Record: 3-1

Disappointing. There's not really any other way to think about that result, at home, for the Trojans than that term. This was a game when it felt like Lincoln Riley and his team could put the narratives about their lack of toughness or showing up in big games to bed, and they just simply didn't have enough to keep up with Oregon for 60 minutes. I'll still maintain that this is a very good USC team, but they don't have many opportunities left to prove themselves quite like this game.

17. Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Last Rank: 24
• Result: def. 19 Missouri, 31-24
• Record: 4-0

Believe in Kamario Taylor and believe in Mississippi State. Jeff Lebby is proving week in and week out that the Bulldogs are not a fluke as they keep winning football games and doing so impressively. Missouri is a good team and put the Bulldogs to the test in this one, but Taylor and the explosive offense never relented and came through with the biggest plays of the game to keep moving forward and now vault into the Top 20 of the rankings.

16. Tennessee Volunteers

• Last Rank: 14
• Result: lost to 1 Texas, 20-17
• Record: 3-1

Tennessee won’t be penalized too heavily in terms of the AP Top 25 for a loss to Texas, even in Knoxville, especially in a game where they had the ball in the final minute with a chance to win or tie the game. At the same time, we did see a much different Volunteers offense when up against a legitimate top-tier deense, which is something to keep in mind. Faizon Brandon has crazy potential, but he and this offense might simply not be up to snuff to handle the top of the SEC just yet.

No. 15-11

15. Utah Utes

• Last Rank: 15
• Result: def. Iowa State, 31-17
• Record: 4-0

Utah certainly wasn’t overly impressive in their win over Iowa State, though Wayshawn Parker and Devon Dampier continued to look like one of the most underrated offensive duos in the country with this victory and their performance. However, we can excuse a weird trip to Ames resulting in a game like this. The important thing for the Utes is that they were able to come out with another win and preserve that zero in the loss column.

14. Oregon Ducks

• Last Rank: 20
• Result: def. 12 USC, 41-27
• Record: 3-1

Prayers up for Dante Moore, first and foremost, as the Oregon quarterback left this game in the first half after a dirty hit. But the Ducks didn't relent once Dylan Raiola came into the game to take over for Moore following the head/neck injury and this team made a big statement. While it's been anything but smooth sailing for Dan Lanning's team to begin the year, the talent has absolutely never been in question and this is what it looks like when everything is coalescing for this group. The question is how often they can conjure up this type of effort.

13. Iowa Hawkeyes

• Last Rank: 17
• Result: def. Michigan, 20-19
• Record: 4-0

Though it was not a pretty game at almost any point, credit is due to Iowa for this performance on the road in the Big House. The offense was stop-and-go for much of the contest, but Hank Brown came up with the big play when it was needed, and now the Hawkeyes are surging in what appears to be a wide-open Big Ten race behind Ohio State and Indiana. Defense and special teams are always going to travel, which is good news for Iowa as those continue to be two bankable aspects of this group. 

12. Texas Tech Red Raiders

• Last Rank: 11
• Result: def. Sam Houston, 49-14
• Record: 4-0

Texas Tech was most likely thankful to see a team like Sam Houston on the schedule after a battle with Oregon State and then a hard-fought victory over Houston last week. The Red Raiders offense was still not a world-beater as two of their scores came from the defensive side of the ball, and with Will Hammond also throwing three picks of his own in this game. But once again, I’d like to remind people that, while the Red Raiders may not be as good as they were a year ago, that still might mean they’re good enough to win the Big 12 this season.

11. BYU Cougars

• Last Rank: 9
• Result: Off
• Record: 3-0

It’s not entirely out of the question BYU experiences a real cold world situation when the AP voters submit their ballots and that LSU pushes back ahead of the Cougars. I’m not fully buying that, however, especially with Ole Miss taking a loss to Florida on Saturday afternoon in the Swamp, which does affect the Tigers’ resumé. However, it is worth noting that BYU still doesn’t have a strength of schedule that is comparable to LSU’s at this point. 

No. 10-9

10. LSU Tigers

• Last Rank: 10
• Result: def. Texas A&M, 35-6
• Record: 3-1

So we were back to the elite version of LSU this week as they made the trip back to Baton Rouge. This was a rivalry matchup with Texas A&M really in name only because the Tigers completely outclassed the Aggies in this game in every single phase. Marcel Reed was hapless and hopeless against the defense, the offense found almost whatever it wanted and the Tigers rolled to another big win for Lane Kiffin. Unfortunately, that might not be the story coming out of this one.

LSU suffered a litany of injuries to key players like Sam Leavitt, Whit Weeks and a number of others in this game. While this is a talented team that Kiffin ensured would have ample depth, losing stars when you have to face the schedule that this group does throughout the season is the last thing that they need. Keep an eye on those injury updates over the next couple of weeks, because they could legitimately make or break this group.

9. Ole Miss Rebels

• Last Rank: 4
• Result: lost to Florida, 52-28
• Record: 3-1

Unfortunately, the writing was on the wall for the Rebels coming into this game. Not only is Florida perhaps the best possible version of the Gators that we could’ve expected to see in year one under Jon Sumrall, not only is The Swamp an always difficult place to play, but Ole Miss was also coming off of the highly emotional win over LSU last week. Something like a letdown was always in the cards for this game, and we saw that pretty clearly as Florida showed no mercy. 

This is, by no means, a reason to write off the Rebs. They played this game without Kewan Lacy, which was quite clearly a hindrance to the offense, and this game wasn’t as much of a blowout as the final score looks until late. Now, Ole Miss definitely needs to look in the mirror, Pete Golding specifically, when it comes to their run defense, but this is still a team that can viably make the College Football Playoff, and this game shouldn’t change your mind on that.

No. 8-7

8. Florida Gators

• Last Rank: 21
• Result: def. 4 Ole Miss, 52-28
• Record: 4-0

Florida makes the biggest jump in the rankings that we’ll see in this early college football season and deservedly so. The Gators had been lurking over the past few weeks as a team that looked the part and just cracked the AP Top 25 last week. But for Aaron Philo, Jadan Baugh and this Buster Faulkner offense to put on the show that they did against an Ole Miss team that just beat LSU last week, that speaks volumes about what this Florida team is actually capable of. 

Baugh has earned the title of the best running back in college football at this point. More pressingly, though, it feels like there isn’t a defense in the country that’s going to be able to stop this rushing attack when you give someone like Faulkner elite talent like Baugh and a good quarterback like Philo. There are more tests to come, no doubt, but the Gators look like a legitimate SEC and CFP contender at this point and are now occupying a spot inside the Top 10 as a result.

7. Alabama Crimson Tide

• Last Rank: 8
• Result: def. South Carolina, 49-18
• Record: 4-0

Well, Alabama may have just handed Shane Beamer his pink slip with the thorough drubbing that the Crimson Tide laid on South Carolina on Saturday evening. Anywhere you look in this game, it was going in favor of Kalen DeBoer's team. Keelon Russell had a star-level performance, we actually saw the run game get going, and the defense completely put the clamps on LaNorris Sellers and an at least talented Gamecocks offense.

It's going to be interesting watching Alabama from this point on, however. While they've more than proved that they have the ability to dominate lesser competition they way you'd want a high-level contender to do so, they now have a sneaky trip to Starkville next week, which is the week before they host Georgia. That will show us what the Crimson Tide are made of, without question.

No. 6-5

6. Ohio State Buckeyes

• Last Rank: 7
• Result: def. Illinois, 42-19
• Record: 3-1

It’d feel wrong if we didn’t start by giving Jeremiah Smith his flowers for what he did to an admittedly porous Illinois defense. Ohio State’s all-world receiver had a monstrous day, catching 12 passes for 217 yards and a ridiculous four touchdowns. He looked like the unstoppable force he is, and his production alone would’ve been enough for the Buckeyes to roll past the Fighting Illini in Columbus on Saturday. Of course, they added two more scores for good measure. 

Following the loss to Texas, I maintained that OSU should still garner plenty of respect, more so than being ranked seventh. Unfortunately, that’s probably not going to happen in this week’s rankings, but it’s obvious that the Buckeyes aren’t going anywhere. With the rest of the Big Ten simply trying to figure out who’s good, Ohio State still looks like the class and the team to beat in the conference.

5. Miami Hurricanes

• Last Rank: 6
• Result: def. Central Michigan, 52-3
• Record: 4-0

Point blank, Central Michigan is not a very good football team, so I’m not going to look at this and take anything grand away when it comes to Miami. Essentially, we saw what we already knew about the Hurricanes. Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney are a special pairing for Mario Cristobal’s team, and this defense has the athletes and certified dudes to overwhelm a lot of their competition this season. That’s ultimately what played out on the field. 

Moreover, after seeing Wake Forest against Louisville, we should remember that when thinking about Miami getting into a fight with the Deacs last week. But now things get a bit interesting for Miami as they’ll have to go on to the road to face an improving Clemson team and then get a bye before a rivalry matchup with Florida State the following week.

No. 4-3

4. Indiana Hoosiers

• Last Rank: 5
• Result: def. Northwestern, 29-23
• Record: 4-0

Friday night was most definitely not a game that Indiana fans will want to remember — and it’s probably one that the Indiana players will pay for on the practice field this week if Curt Cignetti has anything to say about it. The Hoosiers ultimately squeaked out the win in this matchup, but the fact of the matter is that this game, especially in Bloomington, was far closer than it had any business being. 

Admittedly, I’m not overly concerned about the Hoosiers. They outgained the Wildcats by nearly 150 total yards in this game and rushed for 271 yards as well. At the same time, this Indiana defense does appear to be at least a step below the unit that we saw a year ago, which is something to watch moving forward. Again, this isn’t a game where anyone should be sounding the alarms just yet, but it is a result that at least makes you want to keep a bit of a closer eye on the defending national champions moving forward.

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• Last Rank: 3
• Result: def. Purdue, 49-10
• Record: 4-0

Notre Dame is really just checking boxes time and again. This week against Purdue was no different as they simply put the clamps on the Boilermakers when they were on the defensive side of the ball and made enough plays with CJ Carr and the offense to pull away for a quite comfortable victory. Does that mean I’m convinced that the Fighting Irish are a national championship contender? I’m still not at that point, but their ranking won’t be affected.

While I do understand that they were on the road against a Power Four team, it is Purdue we’re talking about — and Carr was just 14-of-22 with a pick, even if he did have four total touchdowns. The one big positive I would take away is the rushing offense looking maybe the best overall that it has yet this season. We’ll still have to wait until Oct. 17 when they have to go to Provo, though, before we see Notre Dame actually get tested.

No. 2-1

2. Georgia Bulldogs

• Last Rank: 2
• Result: def. Oklahoma, 41-13
• Record: 4-0

My word. Even as someone who thought that Georgia was clearly the better team in this matchup, I thought that Oklahoma and their stout defense would at least put up a fight in Athens. Instead, the Sooners had absolutely no answer for anything that the Dawgs were throwing at them on either side of the ball. And while that might be an indictment on OU just as much as it is in praise of Georgia, the fact of the matter is that Kirby Smart’s team continues to look like a legitimate force this season. 

Even without Nate Frazier and with Gunner Stockton not using his legs all that much, it didn’t matter for the Dawgs. Their defense had John Mateer in absolute shackles in this game, and the run game still worked quite well overall. Georgia now gets another home game against Vanderbilt next week, but that’s really just a tune up for the big show on Oct. 10 when they go on the road to Tuscaloosa. 

1. Texas Longhorns

• Last Rank: 1
• Result: def. Tennessee, 20-17
• Record: 4-0

The final score and some of the calamity in Texas’ win over Tennessee might lead you to believe that the No. 1-ranked team in the country wasn’t all that good in this game. And sure, Arch Manning didn’t have his best game at all on the road in Knoxville. But it was a big SEC road game in a hostile environment and, when you look underneath the hood, it really tells you that Tennessee was lucky to be in this game — and that’s before even talking about the potentially illegal onside kick the Vols recovered to give them a chance to win in the final minute.

If there’s one criticism to levy against the Longhorns, it’s that they took their foot off of the gas in the fourth quarter, which you simply can’t do on the road in the SEC. But if you take away the Vols’ final two drives when that happened, they managed only 136 total yards on this Texas defense. Will Muschamp’s group is the real secret sauce for this team and, while the Longhorns still don’t look like they’ve reached peak performance, the fact that they now have a win over Ohio State and over Tennessee on the road speaks to how good they can be.

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