One of the most-hyped slates in recent college football memory is now behind us in Week 10. Of course, given all of the chaos that's transpired this season, we actually were a bit short on that on Saturday. Sure, we did see Notre Dame beat the No. 1 team in the country, Miami, while Tennessee gave Kentucky its second loss, Georgia thoroughly destroyed Ole Miss in Oxford, Texas toppled Missouri, Utah downed rival BYU in Holy War, Oregon gave Ohio State a second straight loss and more, but it still didn't feel as chaotic. At least, it didn't until we have to project the new AP Top 25 college football rankings.
With the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings, we typically see AP voters start to mimic the CFP rankings a bit more closely, which makes the projections this week a bit weird. That's where it's important to note that I'm merely trying to predict voter behavior, not purely ranking the teams how I would. Regardless, let's dive in and see what the AP Top 25 college football rankings are going to look like on Sunday afternoon.
Dropped Out of Rankings: 25 Florida Gators
No. 25-21
25. Arizona Wildcats
- Last Rank: 24
- Result: def. TCU, 29-28
- Record: 7-2
If you weren’t dialed in late night with Arizona’s finish against TCU, I highly recommend you go check that out. Absolute madness with a botched squib kick return, two scores in the final minute and Arizona staying with just two losses. Incredible finish aside, it wasn’t the best performance for Noah Fifita and the Wildcats on Friday night as they seemed gassed from the loss to Texas Tech the week prior. Even still, it speaks to this team’s makeup that they found a way to win.
24. New Mexico Lobos
- Last Rank: 22
- Result: def. Nevada, 31-3
- Record: 8-1
New Mexico not being ranked by the CFP is a travesty, but one I think will be remedied this week — while I also believe we won't have to worry about the Lobos dropping out of the AP Top 25 either. Jason Eck's team torched Nevada on Friday night, completely stonewalling the Wolf Pack with what is one of the most underrated defenses in the entire country. They are still slightly behind Boise State in the Group of Six pecking order, but they are doing everything the Lobos need to right now to stay in the race.
23. Missouri Tigers
- Last Rank: 19
- Result: lost to 10 Texas, 34-20
- Record: 6-3
Missouri is most definitely going to hang onto a spot in the rankings as they’ve been competitive in every game this season except for their loss on the road at Ole Miss. That includes this loss to Texas as well, but the bigger concern is moving forward. Austin Simmons was just one of many key Tigers who left this game worse for the wear, and Mizzou still has a brutal finishing stretch after the Longhorns, going on the road to face Georgia next week, playing Kentucky at home and finishing the year at home against Oklahoma.
22. South Carolina Gamecocks
- Last Rank: 23
- Result: def. Texas A&M, 17-9
- Record: 6-3
South Carolina definitely didn’t cover itself in glory with the win over Texas A&M on Saturday as it was just simply a sloppy games on both sides for all 60 minutes. However, late heroics from a limping LaNorris Sellers allowed the Gamecocks to pull out the victory, their fourth straight at this point. Playing Arkansas next week is probably a welcome respite for Shane Beamer’s team, but the matchup with Georgia in two weeks in Columbia is looking juicier by the week.
21. LSU Tigers
- Last Rank: 15
- Result: lost to 9 Alabama, 31-13
- Record: 6-3
The road ahead for LSU just got that much more difficult on Saturday, as they have three losses now — this one their first by margin, though against the best team they’ve played to date, as well. However, Lane Kiffin’s group still has firepower and chances to earn their way into the playoff. They’ll be back in Baton Rouge and welcoming Texas to town next week before going on the road to face Tennessee the following week. If they were to win those two games, as well as beat Arkansas in the finale, they’d have a case as a strong three-loss CFP candidate.
No. 20-16
20. Boise State Broncos
- Last Rank: 20
- Result: def. Colorado State, 64-38
- Record: 8-1
It wasn’t hard to find someone worried about Boise State coming into this game. Colorado State isn’t very good, but with the Broncos starting Max Cutforth for the injured Maddux Madsen, it was a dangerous-ish spot on the road and eyes were on Boise. They just went out and hung 68 points on the Rams, no biggie. This team seems to have found a shot in the arm from somewhere, and now it’ll be an arms race with them and New Mexico for the Group of Six playoff spot.
19. Ohio State Buckeyes
- Last Rank: 11
- Result: lost to Oregon, 41-28
- Record: 6-3
Some people are going to be calling for Ohio State to drop out of the AP Top 25 entirely after a loss like the one they suffered on Saturday, especially with Luke Fahey now sitting at 0-2 as the starter in Columbus. They’ll hang on, but just barely. I doubt any Ohio State fans will really care about that, though, as they just watched their CFP hopes likely go up in flames. With how porous the defense has looked the past two weeks and the step back on offense, there’s a non-zero chance this wasn’t the Buckeyes’ last loss of the season.
18. Oregon Ducks
- Last Rank: Unranked
- Result: def. 11 Ohio State, 41-28
- Record: 6-3
Oregon wasn’t ranked in the AP Top 25 last week, but did show up as the team with the second-most votes in the “Others Receiving Votes” portion of the proceedings. But the Ducks will surely get that nod this week as voters follow the CFP and on the heels of such an emphatic win. While Ohio State with Luke Fahey isn’t what we normally see from the Buckeyes, Oregon going on the road with its backup quarterback and seemingly finding its identity over the past few weeks could switch up the vibes drastically to end the year in Eugene.
17. Ole Miss Rebels
- Last Rank: 12
- Result: lost to 2 Georgia, 42-7
- Record: 6-3
It’s hard to overstate how bad this loss was for Ole Miss. Obviously, that extends to what happened on the field, which was the Rebels getting completely outclassed on the field. Trinidad Chambliss was clamped down and Georgia was able to do whatever they wanted against this defense. What makes it worse in the bigger picture. With only games against Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State left, the Rebels essentially just wrote their playoff fate with this loss. Spoiler: They won’t be in it.
16. Iowa Hawkeyes
- Last Rank: 21
- Result: def. Northwestern, 24-10
- Record: 7-2
Iowa most certainly isn't a perfect football team. But this is undeniably a good football team that's going to be able to beat, like they did Northwestern, any team that can't just simply outmatch them with raw talent. This offense behind Hank Brown is doing enough, even with injuries, and the defense is playing better football down the stretch. The ceiling for this team is still in question, but there's also a non-zero chance that they could end up in Indianapolis or even the CFP at this point with the conference in disarray.
No. 15-11
15. USC Trojans
- Last Rank: 18
- Result: OFF
- Record: 7-2
All of a sudden, USC has to be feeling like they have legitimate College Football Playoff life. Ohio State's demise, BYU and Kentucky now having two losses, Ole Miss having three losses, and much more all works in the Trojans' favor. Granted, they'd appreciate if the win over the Buckeyes meant more than it looks like it will at the end of the season. However, they can play their way in with matchups at Indiana and at UCLA among their final three games coming out of this off week.
14. Houston Cougars
- Last Rank: 17
- Result: def. Cincinnati, 31-24
- Record: 7-2
Beating Cincinnati, even at home, is proving to be no small feat in the Big 12 this season. The Bearcats are giving basically everyone except Utah, who might just be a different animal entirely, tough games. Houston wasn’t immune to that, but it was good to see the Cougars pick themselves up and pull off a nice win. This defense is still not much to write home about, though they aren’t bad either, but Conner Weigman and the offense are so stout and multi-dimensional that they can give most anyone a difficult game.
13. Kentucky Wildcats
- Last Rank: 8
- Result: lost to 16 Tennessee, 34-6
- Record: 7-2
Well, there goes that dream. Kentucky isn’t dead in the water just yet — not by a longshot. However, they’re going to be penalized for taking such a brutal loss. The magic of Kenny Minchey and Will Stein wasn’t any match for the Tennessee defense, and now the Wildcats are up against it. With matchups against Florida and Mizzou still to come, there’s a chance to still claw back into CFP consideration, but that job just got much more difficult after a result like that coupled with a loss with margin to Alabama, even if neither is a bad opponent to lose to.
12. BYU Cougars
- Last Rank: 7
- Result: lost to 3 Utah, 28-20
- Record: 7-2
Holy War was every bit of an apt descriptor of this rivalry matchup in Salt Lake City on Saturday afternoon. Utah jumped out early, BYU clawed back into it, but the Utes reclaimed control. LJ Martin’s return was, unfortunately, minimally impactful, while Bear Bachmeier couldn’t stop turning the ball over, throwing four interceptions in the loss. The Cougars aren’t out of the Big 12 race, but things just got exponentially more difficult in that and the CFP race.
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Still playing vs. West Virginia)
- Last Rank: 13
- Result: TBD
- Record: 7-1
Texas Tech got a bit of a wake-up call in the first CFP rankings, coming in two spots lower than they were in the AP Top 25. That’s not what Cody Campbell or anyone wants to see (a lot of that this week), but the Red Raiders were given a lifeline with the BYU loss. Moreover, with Thomas Castellanos seemingly giving the Texas Tech offense a newfound spark, there’s a chance that the Red Raiders can go on a run, make the Big 12 Championship Game, and find their way back to the playoff once again.
No. 10-9
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Last Rank: 14
- Result: def. Merrimack, 77-0
- Record: 8-1
Whether you’re talking about the AP poll or the CFP rankings, the disrespect for Wake Forest is wild. I realize that beating the begeezus out of Merrimack isn’t really a worthwhile data point, but the Demon Deacs have been doing that against ACC competition as well. They’re more on par with a BYU or Texas Tech than they’re getting credit for, even from a resumé perspective.
Even still, they got to rest Gio Lopez this week as he deals with an injury, still put up a 70 burger, and now face their biggest remaining test, SMU, next week in Dallas. Not only could that be a game that ultimately determines which of those two teams will end up taking on Miami (assumedly) in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game, but with the Mustangs looking better of late, it’s also probably Wake’s biggest test outside of the Canes this season as well.
9. Tennessee Volunteers
- Last Rank: 16
- Result: def. 8 Kentucky, 34-6
- Record: 7-2
One of the matters in the first CFP rankings that made fans the most angry was Tennessee being as far away from Alabama as they were despite having the same record and a head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide. That won’t be the case after this game, however. Tennessee came out and delivered a pristine performance to dominate a one-loss Kentucky team and keep building a resumé that’s going to be hard for AP voters and the CFP committee to deny.
This defense might be the best in the country at this point. If not, it’s close. But the big question has been the offense and whether or not it can step up enough in these types of situations to create margin. DeSean Bishop and this run game are terrific, but we saw George MacIntyre continue to play solidly and Faizon Brandon even make an appearance. It might not always be as pretty as it was against Kentucky, but Tennessee isn’t going anywhere at this point.
No. 8-7
8. Texas Longhorns
- Last Rank: 10
- Result: def. Missouri, 34-20
- Record: 7-2
As someone who has been bullish on Texas since the preseason, there’s no denying that this season has been exceptionally frustrating. Whether Arch Manning or Steve Sarkisian or the defense, the lack of complete football has been frustrating. But lo and behold, the Longhorns might actually be putting it all together right now, which is even crazier when you consider their injuries that kept Cam Coleman and Hollywood Smothers out of the win against Missouri and also limited Colin Simmons in his return.
Texas undoubtedly had to fight, especially after two early turnovers put them behind the 8-ball. But Manning is playing arguably his best football of the season right now and Raleek Brown continues to be a spark for the run game in Smothers’ absence, as does the young stable behind him. And this defense is just a plain-ol’ boa constrictor. Texas is at LSU next week, but if they get past that, Arkansas and A&M look like a soft landing to make the playoff — which they might be able to do regardless of the result against LSU at this point.
7. Indiana Hoosiers
- Last Rank: 5
- Result: OFF
- Record: 8-1
Indiana is one team where I see the AP voters still holding to their guns rather than following the CFP's lead, especially because the Hoosiers were one of two teams ranked in the AP Top 25 and CFP that were off in Week 10. Given that Alabama win, the UCLA win, Notre Dame's win and all of what happened around them in the rankings, I actually think there's a real chance that Indiana drops in both the AP Top 25 and the CFP rankings this upcoming week.
Josh Hoover's injury looms large for a Hoosiers team and offense that has been far from perfect this season. They've been playing with fire all year and the loss to Ohio State is only looking worse as the Buckeyes start to crater. This is still an elite defense under Bryant Haines, but most games in the Big Ten are landmines for this team if it's Grant Wilson at quarterback.
No. 6-5
6. UCLA Bruins
- Last Rank: 5
- Result: def. Minnesota, 34-20
- Record: 9-0
Another week, another decisive UCLA victory to remain undefeated. I was a bit shocked to see how many people were on the Minnesota side of this game, simply because one of the things we know about the Bruins with absolute certainty is that their defense is legit. They showed exactly that, no question, holding the Golden Gophers under 300 yards of total offense. But UCLA’s offense showing up like it did might be the bigger sign for Bob Chesney’s team.
Ty Dieffenbach only completed eight passes in the win, but still cleared 300 yards while Wayne Knight and the run game were working as well. If the Bruins can find that level of explosiveness and not even consistency in the passing game, they’re going to need to be taken more seriously than it seems most people are at this point. UCLA has a tough finish to the year, facing red-hot Illinois on a short week, on the road at Michigan, and home against USC. But they have the look of a team ready to weather that into the Big Ten Championship Game and, subsequently, the CFP.
5. Miami Hurricanes
- Last Rank: 1
- Result: lost to 4 Notre Dame, 31-24
- Record: 8-1
Because of their spirited comeback attempt in the second half, I think Miami ends up dropping just behind Notre Dame in the rankings. There's no doubt that Darian Mensah and this team are still high-caliber, as they had a minute chance in the final minute to potentially force overtime or go for the win. And it's even more impressive to do that in South Bend without Malachi Toney. But ultimately, they came up short, and now they don't have much margin for error left.
Yes, Miami is still almost a shoo-in for the ACC Championship Game. Not only is Notre Dame not a conference loss, but they should be heavy favorites against Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College to finish the year — and all those games come at home. However, if they were to trip up in any of those spots, there would be some real questions about the Hurricanes' strength of schedule, even if they still pass the eye test from where I'm sitting.
No. 4-3
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Last Rank: 4
- Result: def. 1 Miami, 31-24
- Record: 8-1
Don't come for me, Notre Dame fans. I'm projecting what the AP voters will do, and my belief in the voters mirroring the CFP rankings to a large degree is why Notre Dame "stays put" after beating the No. 1 team in the country on Saturday night. If you're thinking about this as a matter of them moving up from No. 11, this starts to make a lot more sense as to why they're in this spot still. But make no mistake, this was a massive proving ground and victory for the Irish.
CJ Carr was fantastic in this game, stepping up time and again and carrying the Fighting Irish offense, while the defense more than showed up, especially in the first half when they put Miami behind the 8-ball. More importantly, though, this comes quite close to locking Notre Dame into the College Football Playoff. Yes, they don't want to mess around and lose another game — though SMU is by far their most daunting remaining opponent — but a win over Miami will go a long way toward making their CFP resumé.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
- Last Rank: 9
- Result: def. 15 LSU, 31-13
- Record: 7-2
Alabama being ranked No. 5 by the College Football Playoff selection committee after sitting at just No. 9 in the AP Top 25 was one of the biggest shocks of the first rankings. However, they made the committee look extremely smart on Saturday afternoon, going on the road to Baton Rouge against a good and rival LSU team and beating the brakes off of them. Yes, it was close early, but Keelon Russell and the Crimson Tide defense left no doubt in the second half as they buried the Tigers.
As mentioned, I expect that Alabama is one of the teams that gets a bump up from their win on Saturday, but also from AP voters trying to match the CFP rankings a bit closer. However, I’m not sure there’s anyone denying what the Crimson Tide are capable of this season, especially after their losses to Tennessee and Georgia both look quite excusable at this point given how good those two rivals are looking right now. They might be a playoff lock now, too.
No. 2-1
2. Utah Utes
- Last Rank: 3
- Result: def. 7 BYU, 28-20
- Record: 9-0
There’s no one that’s going to be questioning Utah now. Still undefeated, they not only took on their second ranked opponent of the season on Saturday in the rivalry showdown with BYU, they did it with exactly what they’ve shown against everyone. Devon Dampier is a certified weapon and there are few defenses in the country that can stifle a player like that for 60 minutes. Moreover, the defense picked off BYU four times and was shutdown in the second half.
Utah now has just three games remaining, with next week against Arizona being the biggest test of the bunch by a wide margin (at TCU and home for West Virginia are the other two games). There’s a legitimate chance that the Utes are going to be entering the Big 12 Championship Game with a zero in the loss column with how things are shaping up for them right now, but the win over BYU also might be enough to get them into the College Football Playoff even if they lose a game before season’s end.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
- Last Rank: 2
- Result: def. 12 Ole Miss, 42-7
- Record: 8-1
Georgia is the best team in college football. The Auburn loss looks almost inexplicable (outside of being a rivalry game the week after beating Alabama) at this point with how the Dawgs are rolling. But I would argue, especially given the highs that we've seen from Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss this season, that what the Bulldogs were able to do on the road in Oxford on Saturday night was one of the most impressive wins of the season — and Kirby Smart's team now has two of those.
It was complete destruction at the hands of Georgia. Chris Cole and this defense made life hell for Chambliss and never let the Rebels offense get even a thought of getting something going. Gunner Stockton was good outside of one underthrown deep ball, but the run game was dominant too. It was a complete and wholly suffocating effort against a team that, after the first CFP rankings, would've been in the playoff field this week. They still have Missouri and South Carolina left, but they look more than up to the task.
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