The AP released its preseason Top 25 poll on Monday, an important signpost on the road to the start of a new college football season. (Less than two weeks away now, we've almost made it.) But while I love passing the time arguing on the internet as much as the next CFB degenerate, it's worth remembering that preseason rankings all too frequently miss the mark. If you don't believe me, just ask Clemson, Penn State and LSU — all of which found themselves in the top 10 at this time last season only to finish the year unranked.
Which teams might meet a similar fate this year? We won't know for sure until toe meets leather at the end of August. But what we can do in the meantime is try to predict which weaknesses might unravel every would-be conference and national title contender. Because in the transfer portal era, there's no such thing as a perfect team, and everybody — yes, even Ohio State and Georgia — has at least one potentially fatal flaw waiting to be revealed.
No. 1 Ohio State: Pass catchers not named Jeremiah Smith
You could just as easily flip this around and make it about Ohio State's pass defense, given how much Matt Patricia is relying on young and transfer talent in the wake of the spring's NFL Draft exodus. But the Buckeyes didn't fall short of winning the Big Ten last year because of their defense; they did so because of an offense that simply couldn't find that extra gear when required.
Will that change in 2026? For the answer to be yes, Ryan Day's team is going to need somebody to fill Carnell Tate's shoes opposite Heisman candidate Jeremiah Smith. Former five-star Brandon Inniss? UTSA transfer Devin McCuin? All-world true freshman Chris Henry Jr.?
No. 2 Oregon: An offensive line that needs to prove itself
Oregon returns loads of talent from a team that only lost to the eventual national champions last season. But twice in a row now, Dan Lanning's Ducks have watched their title hopes get annihilated on the CFP stage — and in both the 2025 Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State and last year's Peach Bowl debacle against Indiana, their offensive line got manhandled.
Now Oregon will try to replace three starters around All-American center Iapani Laloulu and all-conference guard Dave Iuli. At this point, the burden of proof is on them to prove they can be good enough when it matters most.
No. 3 Georgia: A complete lack of big plays
I have very little doubt that Georgia will have yet another suffocating defense. But even a Kirby Smart team needs to hit the occasional home run, and last year's Dawgs just could not make life easy for themselves offensively. Gunner Stockton is as reliable a point guard as you'll find; if he or running back Nate Frazier can't find some more explosives, though, it's going to be awfully hard for this team to score points against the best defenses on its schedule — defenses that aren't liable to give up eight- or nine-play scoring drives.
No. 4 Notre Dame: ... also a complete lack of big plays
Marcus Freeman's Irish have just about everything in place for a title run, from a returning starter at QB in CJ Carr to an absolutely loaded defense. But for as good as Carr was in his first season at the helm last year, Notre Dame couldn't find very many big plays through the air. And with both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price now off to the NFL, it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to generate nearly as many big plays on the ground. Are the Irish dynamic enough to go toe-to-toe with elite defenses come playoff time? New starting running back Aneyas Williams or the return of 2024 Playoff breakout Jaden Greathouse would go a long way.
No. 5 Texas: A worryingly thin offense
I'm not going to insult your intelligence here. Steve Sarkisian's Horns are loaded for bear, combining incumbent stars like Arch Manning and Colin Simmons with a monster transfer class featuring the likes of Auburn WR Cam Coleman, NC State RB Hollywood Smothers and Pitt LB Rasheem Biles.
But they better hope nobody gets hurt, especially on the offensive side. Obviously anything happening to Manning would be a disaster, but the depth behind Coleman, Smothers, Raleek Brown and the starting five along the offensive line has very little in the way of proven Power 4 production.
No. 6 Indiana: Josh Hoover's turnover problem
Hoover doesn't have to go full Fernando Mendoza for Indiana to compete for a second straight national title; Curt Cignetti once again has the Hoosiers looking like one of the most complete rosters in the country. But he does have to not lose them games in crucial moments, and that was a bit of a problem for him last year at TCU, where he threw 13 interceptions — including seven in a three-game stretch against Iowa State, BYU and Houston. Hoover is a gunslinger in every sense of the word, but how much Indiana is able to sand down his edges could decide their repeat hopes.
No. 7 Miami: Pass rush
I'm not worried about Miami's offense, with transfer QB Darian Mensah throwing to Malachi Toney and Cooper Barkate and handing the ball off to Mark Fletcher Jr. in front of a Mario Cristobal offensive line. But while Cristobal brought in former Missouri EDGE Damon Wilson II in the portal, the duo of Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. leaves a massive void, one that any team would struggle to fill. And if the Canes can't put pressure on the passer as consistently as they did last season, their ceiling gets much lower.
No. 8 Texas A&M: Can we trust Marcel Reed?
Reed had a largely excellent season in 2025. But for as dynamic as he can be, when things go haywire for him as a passer, they really go haywire. That shows up in both back-breaking mistakes (12 picks last year, including two apiece in losses to Texas and Miami) and some ugly incompletions. As the Aggies experience some turnover on defense and a new OC to replace the departed Collin Klein, A&M needs Reed to take a leap in his second full season as the starter. Does he have that sort of polish in him?
No. 9 Ole Miss: Run defense
Yes, the Rebels lose Lane Kiffin. But I have a hard time worrying about an offense helmed by Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, and poaching OC John David Baker from East Carolina was an inspired choice. The real question when it comes to Ole Miss' SEC and national title hopes comes on the other side of the ball, where this team was simply too soft in the trenches last season. They finished 64th in yards allowed per rush (sacks removed), and they had no answer for Fletcher in the CFP semifinal loss to Miami. With no impact transfers to speak of, it's unclear where improvement might come from.
No. 10 Oklahoma: Offensive efficiency
When John Mateer's clicking, he's as entertaining as any QB in the country. But this OU attack was downright ugly at times last season: Mateer's ability as a passer fluctuated wildly (50th in total QBR, plus a boatload of sacks and picks) and the Sooners had arguably the least efficient running game in the Power 4. No matter how good Brent Venables' defense is, it's almost impossible to win big if you can't stay on schedule, and unless Mateer or a young offensive line is ready to take a leap, I'm skeptical.
No. 11 LSU: Massive turnover in the trenches
I realize that Kiffin has adapted to the new portal era like a fish to water, and that few coaches are more comfortable rebuilding rosters on the fly. But a combined 14 transfers on the offensive and defensive lines — many of whom will need to be day-one, impact starters — is a lot even by his lofty standards. The biggest concern is on offense. Can this all come together quickly enough to improve on what was a pretty poor running game last season?
No. 12 Texas Tech: The passing game
To be clear, this was already a question mark before the Brendan Sorsby situation ended in disaster — Tech brings back exactly one pass catcher who tallied more than 115 yards last season, and will rely heavily on transfers like Pitt's Kenny Johnson and Auburn's Malcolm Simmons. The fact that such a brand-new receiving corps will now be catching passes from Will Hammond — who's shown serious promise in limited playing time but has yet to do it on a weekly basis — just adds to the uncertainty. The Red Raiders will run the heck out of the ball, and they spent big on defense in the portal. But they hit their ceiling hard last season because of a lack of offensive dynamism, and the same could be true in 2026.
No. 13 Alabama: The offensive line
Alabama suffered through its worst offensive line in nearly two decades last year, and now there's very little in the way of Power 4 starting experience to build upon for 2026. That's ... not great when you're trying to break in a new starting quarterback, whether it's veteran Austin Mack or five-star sophomore Keelon Russell. If the Tide can't protect whoever's under center, or improve on what was a dismal running game last season, it'll be awfully hard to gain traction even if Kane Wommack's defense is as good as advertised.
No. 14 BYU: Can they pass when they need to?
We know that BYU will be able to run the ball with an experienced line and a 1,000-yard back in LJ Martin. We know they'll once again be salty on defense, with most of last year's sturdy unit comoing back. They ran into a brick wall against Texas Tech last season, though, largely because their offense couldn't get out of second gear. Can Bear Bachmeier be more than just a rugged running threat this season? With top targets Chase Roberts, Parker Kingston and Carsen Ryan gone and no returners who even cracked 200 yards last season, he'll have his work cut out for him.
No. 15 USC: The defensive trenches
The skepticism will continue until a Lincoln Riley team finally proves us wrong. In fairness, there's more optimism here than there has been in some time, with Gary Patterson inheriting an ascending unit that features young stars up front in Kameryn Crawford and Jahkeem Stewart. If Patterson can fashion a top-25 unit, USC will score more than enough points. But the next time the Trojans are respectable against the run will be the first time under Riley's tenure.
No. 16 Michigan: Bryce Underwood
Kyle Whittinghim and former BYU DC Jay Hill know how to build a defense, and the talent around Underwood — Jordan Marshall and true freshman Savion Hiter at running back, Andrew Marsh and JJ Buchanan at wideout plus an experienced offensive line — should be solid enough. So: Can the former No. 1 overall recruit start to make good on his hype and make strides as a passer from the pocket? He's adjusting to a new OC in Jason Beck, who crafted a very fun offense with Devon Dampier at Utah last year. But what we saw last season was pretty ugly, especially in the biggest moments.
No. 17 Washington: Will the offense show up against top teams?
Against most of their schedule, Demond Williams and this Huskies offense set the world on fire. Against Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Wisconsin, though — in other words, the best four Big Ten defenses they played — Washington fell apart. UW loses star running back Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston, but they return an experienced line and some ascending playmakers like Dezmen Roebuck and Rashid Williams plus what should be another strong defense. Can Williams iron out the negative plays and inconsistencies?
No. 18 Penn State: Scoring enough points
In an effort to establish some sort of baseline in year one, Matt Campbell brought as many of his Iowa State starters with him to Happy Valley as he could. That should mean pretty good things for this defense, which was still in a pretty healthy place at the end of the James Franklin tenure and should benefit from incoming Cyclones like Kooper Ebel and Jeremiah Cooper. But the picture is ... not quite as rosy on the other side of the ball, where Penn State will rely on much of an Iowa State offense that ranked 63rd in ESPN's SP+ in the Big 12 last season. That won't be good enough for Campbell to win more than eight games or so, even with a soft schedule.
No. 19 SMU: Defensive regression with a new DC
As long as Rhett Lashlee and Kevin Jennings are around, SMU will always be able to score — even if those fireworks come with the occasional big negative play. The real story of the Mustangs' rise in the ACC, though, has come on defense, a unit that improved every year under DC Scott Symons. But Symons is now a Dallas Cowboys assistant, and with several starters needing to be replaced, can Lashlee's program maintain the gains it's made or regress back to the old normal?
No. 20 Tennessee: Is this year's defensive front better than last year's?
There's a QB competition raging in Knoxville, but let's be real: Josh Heupel's offense is about as "just add water" as they come. This was not a very good defense last year, though, and now they lose most of the proven names from a unit that already struggled mightily to stop the run. We're relying a whole lot on projection to get to somewhere competitive at the upper levels of the SEC, and that's before we get to new DC Jim Knowles historically needing at least one year to get everyone up to speed with his complex system.
No. 21 Utah: Turnover in the trenches
Such is life after a coaching change. Dampier and RB Wayshawn Parker are pretty much the only two proven returners on offense, and it's going to be hard to keep the same sort of physical identity while replacing pretty much your entire O-line. The defense also loses its top four linemen from 2025. It sure feels like this team is going to take a step back physically this season — understandable for year one under a new regime, but not great for their Big 12 title hopes.
No. 22 Iowa: Defensive turnover
Look, Iowa will always be held back to some extent by its offense. But the thing that might hold them back from being the Hawkeyes we know and love actually comes on the other side of the ball, where stalwart DC Phil Parker has to deal with ridiculous levels of turnover: Per ESPN's Bill Connelly, only six of the 17 defenders who logged 200-plus snaps are back in 2026. That's a lot even for one of the most trustworthy coordinators in the country, and even if this offense remains respectable, they're going to need to find their stride very quickly to keep this team in Big Ten contention.
No. 23 Houston: How high is this team's ceiling?
Houston returns the overwhelming majority of the team that shocked the Big 12 en route to 10 wins last year, and Willie Fritz added big names like RB Makhi Hughes and WR Trent Walker in the portal. So what's the problem, exactly? Well, last year's breakthrough came in large part thanks to close-game luck, and now the schedule ramps up considerably with road trips to Texas Tech, Utah and Kansas State. The Coogs got boatraced by Tech in their one big test last season; can they take another step and be more than just a feel-good story?
No. 24 Louisville: Defensive question marks abound
Jeff Brohm once again hit the portal hard on offense, but I'll believe a Brohm offense will struggle when I actually see it happen. My real concern is on the other side of the ball, where only five of 16 players who cleared the 200-snap mark are back. The cupboard isn't totally bare here, but Brohm needs lots of transfers to hit right away if he wants a defense good enough to actually break through in the ACC this season.
No. 25 Missouri: Pass rush
With an athlete in Austin Simmons at QB behind a very good offensive line, Missouri is going to run the heck out of the ball this year regardless of whether All-American RB Ahmad Hardy is able to return from being shot in the leg over the offseason. But while Eli Drinkwitz did very nice work rebuilding his secondary in the portal, I have real questions about a pass rush which loses just about everybody beyond 2025 breakout Darris Smith. Do the Tigers have enough to get after QBs? If not, the other parts of their defense could get exposed, and I'm not sure this offense can keep up.
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