College football as a whole is nearly impossible to predict in the preseason, but that might never be truer than with the Heisman Trophy race. Arch Manning was the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite (or one of them) in both the 2025 and 2026 seasons, and then promptly was overtaken in both cases. The volatility of the teams that Heisman candidates play on in addition to the fact that we're placing expectations on 18-to-22-year-olds before playing a snap in a given year leads to more of a rollercoaster.
But we're roughly at the midseason point of 2026 in college football, so it's as good of a time as any to reevaluate the preseason Heisman Trophy favorites — specifically, the 14 players who had 30/1 odds or better entering the year at FanDuel Sportsbook — and grade their performance so far this season.
14. QB Keelon Russell, Alabama Crimson Tide – Grade: A+
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +3000
- Current Heisman Odds: +2000
Frankly, I don't think there's another grade you can give Keelon Russell other than an A+. For a guy who wasn't guaranteed to be Alabama's starter in the spring, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the country as a 19-year-old. Yes, he and the Crimson Tide are coming off the Georgia loss, but he's still put up 1,599 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and two picks through six games, as well as rushing for 225 yards and four scores. He's been the goods and is one of the clear favorites in the country right now, more so than entering the year.
13. QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M Aggies – Grade: F
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +3000
- Current Heisman Odds: Unlisted
In hindsight, anyone believing in Marcel Reed to this degree was sorely mistaken. I'll admit that I was never high enough on the A&M quarterback to consider him in the Heisman race, but it's been even worse than we thought. Not only is the production not there as Reed is completing only 55.3% of his throws for just 1,097 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions, also while only rushing for 50 yards and two scores. He's actively hurting the Aggies' chances to win, which is about as far from a Heisman candidate as you can get.
12. QB Jayden Maiava, USC Trojans – Grade: B+
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +2500
- Current Heisman Odds: +10000
The USC Trojans have their share of problems, but it's entirely unfair to put those problems at the feet of Jayden Maiava. The veteran passer leads the Big Ten in both passing yards (2,045) and touchdown passes (18) while completing 67.9 percent of his throws and with only three interceptions. He's also rushed for two scores as well. He's very much the reason that USC has been in every game they've played, even if his team's middling nature and lack of overall toughness has largely killed his Heisman chances.
11. QB John Mateer, Oklahoma Sooners – Grade: D-
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +2500
- Current Heisman Odds: +40000
The only reason that John Mateer isn't getting a failing grade is because he did the one thing that Arch Manning couldn't in Red River to help propel Oklahoma to the upset rivalry win: He didn't make the big mistakes. Unfortunately, the rest of it has been awful for the Sooners' second-year quarterback. His rushing ability has almost entirely disappeared, and he's thrown for a meager 1,038 yards through five games. The eye test is even worse, though, and he's gone down as one of the biggest overall disappointments of the season to this point.
10. QB Sam Leavitt, LSU Tigers – Grade: C+
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +2500
- Current Heisman Odds: +17500
The rollercoaster ride of Sam Leavitt didn't stay in Tempe, as everyone in Baton Rouge is starting to need a motion-sickness bag from LSU's quarterback play. There are still moments when he looks like he could be the best quarterback in college football, but those are almost always followed soon by decision-making and recklessness that are impossible to explain. LSU's College Football Playoff hopes are on life support at the midseason point, and though it's not entirely on Leavitt, he's at least partially to blame. The numbers have been there, though.
9. QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia Bulldogs – Grade: A-
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +2200
- Current Heisman Odds: +1400
Gunner Stockton is the workman's Heisman Trophy candidate. The numbers aren't going to jump off the page, though 1,298 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions with the SEC's leading completion rate (76.6%) are all marks in his favor, as is the 134 rushing yards and additional score. However, he's been an efficient and playmaking field general for the best team in college football to this point, and has clearly taken a step forward. It might not be sexy, but I don't know how you could be anything other than overtly positive about Georgia's signal-caller.
8. QB Josh Hoover, Indiana Hoosiers – Grade: B
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +1600
- Current Heisman Odds: +5500
Through six games this season, maybe the biggest surprise in college football has been that Josh Hoover has yet to throw an interception while throwing for 17 touchdowns and 1,364 yards, adding a rushing score as well. I would argue that Indiana's offense with the run game taking a step back needs him to actually be a little less risk-averse, but Mike Shanahan has clearly developed Hoover into a new type of player. The stats aren't quite gaudy enough for the Heisman race, at least not yet, but Hoover isn't out of the race either.
7. WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes – Grade: A+
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +1500
- Current Heisman Odds: -210
Becoming just the third non-quarterback to win the Heisman in the last decade was always an uphill battle, but Jeremiah Smith came prepared for that. He's been the backbone of Ohio State's offense in a way that, frankly, is uncommon in modern college football. Arthur Smith is spamming his star receiver and it's led to absurd production. Through six games, he already has 48 catches for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's averaging over 150 yards and nearly two touchdowns per game this season. He's a freak, to use Curt Cignetti's words, and there's a reason he's now the heavy Heisman favorite.
6. QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss Rebels – Grade: A
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +1300
- Current Heisman Odds: +1300
Trinidad Chambliss has been the great equalizer for Ole Miss this season. Even with a signature win for the Rebels already this season, albeit coupled with a tough loss to Florida, Chambliss has been the guiding force behind that. He has 1,435 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions through the air with 113 rushing yards and five more touchdowns as well. Ole Miss will go as far as he can take them, but I don't think there's a Heisman voter in the country who could look at him and come away with a take that he's anything but one of the best players in college football this season.
5. QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State Buckeyes – Grade: B
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +1300
- Current Heisman Odds: +4000
On one hand, the numbers look quite good for Julian Sayin over his first six games this season. He's thrown for 1,772 yards, 17 touchdowns and two interceptions, rushing for two more touchdowns as well. But when you factor Jeremiah Smith into the equation, it admittedly takes away from Sayin in the Ohio State offense. He's smashing the easy button with Smith, who has accounted for more than half of his passing yards and roughly two-thirds of his touchdowns. That's not to discredit Sayin entirely, which is why he still gets a passing grade, but it is to say that you can't help but wonder what he'd look like if Smith wasn't on the field with him.
4. QB Dante Moore, Oregon Ducks – Grade: C-
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +1200
- Current Heisman Odds: Unlisted
Holding the injury against him is certainly unfair, so I'm not going to do that to Dante Moore. What I will say, however, is that Oregon's returning quarterback hadn't exactly covered himself in glory prior to leaving the game against USC with a head injury. Yes, he had nine touchdowns and no picks with 926 yards through four games, but the eye test was middling at best, and not to mention his exceptionally subpar showing in the loss to Oklahoma State (and stat-padding a bit against Portland State). He's not been bad by any stretch, but that also doesn't mean he hasn't also been disappointing when on the field.
3. QB Darian Mensah, Miami Hurricanes – Grade: A
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +1000
- Current Heisman Odds: +1000
Level of competition is the one thing that's holding Darian Mensah back from an A+ grade at this point, but he's checked every box he's had the chance to thus far in his Miami career. In five games, he leads the nation in completion percentage (84.2) while throwing for 1,438 yards, 15 touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding 79 rushing yards and two more scores. He's been wildly efficient and dangerous for one of the best teams in college football. If this pace doesn't relent against the tougher teams on Miami's schedule, he'll be in New York and may even have a chance to hoist the Heisman when it's all said and done.
2. QB Arch Manning, Texas Longhorns – Grade: D
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +800
- Current Heisman Odds: +10000
As a staunch Arch Manning defender, even I can't argue that he's been a tremendous letdown for Texas this season. That's not to say that there haven't been moments. The comeback against Ohio State looked like a Heisman moment. There are throws in every game where he looks like the Prince Who Was Promised. But Manning's propensity to shoot himself in the foot with bad processing and resulting bad decisions continues to pop up and the production continues to not be Heisman-caliber. It's frustrating to see all the talent seemingly be wasted to some degree, but as of right now, that feeling is impossible to escape — even if it hasn't been a complete failure.
1. QB CJ Carr, Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Grade: B
- Preseason Heisman Odds: +700
- Current Heisman Odds: +1200
There's nothing negative that can be said about the level that CJ Carr has produced to this point in the season, completing 70.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards, 16 touchdowns and just one interception, while adding three scores on the ground. Especially with Notre Dame searching for a run game early in the year, his production was necessary. However, Carr and the Fighting Irish haven't seen a team that remotely comes close to their talent level yet, which makes the production feel a bit like empty calories in some capacity. If he can keep this up against BYU and Miami, though, that grade is going to shoot up, as will Carr's Heisman stock.
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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