Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano launched himself onto the college football hot seat on a flaming catapult on Thursday. How else could you describe his Scarlett Knights getting thoroughly outplayed, 37-21, by the UMass Minutemen?
Rutgers scored first, and that was about as good as it got. UMass scored 30 unanswered points from there, including 17 in the second quarter alone. Quarterback Dylan Lonergan threw three interceptions and lost a fumble on a strip sack. The Scarlett Knights' running game was non-existant, averaging 1.4 yards per carry midway through the fourth. The defense gave up 9.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.1 yards per carry. They got beat short and over the top. It was, frankly, a pathetic performance from a Power 4 team.
That's the kind of loss that gets coaches fired.
UMass' upset is one of the most shocking in college football in years
We need to put this game in perspective. UMass was 0-12 in 2025, including a loss to FCS Bryant. Their only two wins in 2024 were over FCS teams. That means their last win over an FBS program was on Oct. 28, 2023! That came against Army amid a 3-9 season. And that three-win season was their best since 2018.
This year, projections for the Minutemen were no better. Advanced metrics like FEI and SP+ had UMass dead last in college football. FPI didn't, but 136th out of 138 is still pretty rough.
UMass has been a doormat's doormat since they moved up to FBS in 2022.
Here's a popular graphic that was going around as soon as it became clear that, yes, UMass was taking it to the Big Ten foe. See UMass vs. Rutgers at the very top of the Upset Alert Meter. See the description, "Act of God Required." Well, there was an act of God. His name is William "Pop" Watson III.
UPSET ALERT METER - Week 1 pic.twitter.com/ChcorepeIe
— The Fourth Quarter (@4thQuarterCFB00) September 3, 2026
Watson spent three seasons at Virginia Tech but never won the starting quarterback job. The 2022 Massachusetts Gatorade Player of the Year transferred back home this year with hopes of finally getting the chance to lead a program. Lead them, he did.
Watson and UMass' dream night was a nightmare for Schiano and the Scarlett Knights.
This is Schiano's second stint as Rutgers' head coach. In the early 2000s, Schiano turned Rutgers into a perennial bowl winner and even pulled off an 11-2 season in 2006. But it's been a long time since that triumph.
Now in the Big Ten, Schiano hasn't been able to rekindle the magic. He has one bowl win since his return in 2020. He hasn't posted a better record than 7-6.
But the value of Schiano has largely been consistency. He wins his managable out of conference games, snags a couple wins in conference and sometimes that's enough to go bowling. That whole formula falls apart if he loses to a team like UMass.
Rutgers' win total projection for the season was already 4.5. And that certainly included what should have been an auto-win over UMass. Looking at the rest of the schedule, the only "easy" win is in Week 4 against Howard.
Rutgers' remaining schedule in 2026
- Sept. 11 at Boston College
- Sept. 19 vs. (14) USC
- Sept. 25 vs. Howard
- Oct. 3 vs. (6) Indiana
- Oct. 17 at Maryland
- Oct. 24 at Northwestern
- Oct. 31 vs. (16) Michigan
- Nov. 7 at Wisconsin
- Nov. 14 vs. Nebraska
- Nov. 21 at (18) Penn State
- No. 28 vs. Michigan State
There are four games against ranked teams in conference play and matchups with vulnerable foes like Maryland and Wisconsin are on the road. I'm not exaggerating when I say Rutgers could go 1-11 against this schedule. Getting to three wins at this point isn't even looking likely.
Put simply, Schiano has a problem.
How ambitious does Rutgers want to be? It's one thing to stick with Schiano when he's a stable force. It's another thing when he's losing this kind of game. Not just losing it, but losing it the way his team did.
In the NIL era, creating excitement and enthusiasm around your program is key. What kind of fundraising can Rutgers do after this performance? (Unless it's fundraising for a buyout.)
Greg Schiano buyout
The best weapon against being fired Schiano has is his buyout. It's not insignificant.
Schiano's buyout is in the area of $17 million. He's owed 76.875 percent of his remaining salary if he's fired without cause. We've seen schools pay much bigger buyouts than that, but that's definitely a lot for a program like Rutgers to swallow.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, though. Losing to this UMass program, like this is a fireable offense, no matter how you slice it.
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