BYU is making a habit out of making their path to the College Football Playoff harder than it needs to be. A year ago, it was two losses to Texas Tech (one in the regular season and one in the Big 12 title game) that halted their season shy of a CFP appearance. This year it was an unorthodox loss to UCF a week after stunning then No. 2 ranked Notre Dame — and now a loss to No. 3 Utah that has their season in shambles.Â
That said, the Cougars entered the weekend as the No. 9 ranked team in the Playoff top 25, meaning they still have a chance to get to the CFP if things break right. It won’t be easy, but it’s also not impossible. Both of their losses are by one possession, one on the road to a top-fie team, and they could still get to the Big 12 title game. Here’s how BYU’s path to the CFP changes after another debilitating loss in what was supposed to be a title-worthy season.Â
How BYU can still make its College Football Playoff debut
BYU is going to need a lot of help if they want to remain in contention in the College Football Playoff. The most important thing for them is Notre Dame needs to win out. If the Fighting Irish take down Miami, BYU’s win looks a lot better. But that’s just part of the help the Cougars are going to need to stay in contention. They’re also going to need quite a few teams to lose: Ole Miss needs to lose to Georgia, Tennessee needs to lose to Kentucky and Houston has to suffer at least one more conference loss as well.Â
The teams they don’t need to win are LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. BYU’s fate in the CFP is arguably linked to Texas Tech; the Red Raiders have just one conference loss, so the Big 12 title game is very much open for them. Texas Tech needs to lose if BYU wants a shot at staying relevant.Â
Can BYU still win the Big 12 title this season?
The easiest way for BYU to stay in the Playoff conversation is to play for a Big 12 championship. The problem is, it won’t be easy for them to get to the title game. They don’t have the head-to-head against Utah in the event the Utes slip up to end the season, and Texas Tech has just one loss in conference. Another Red Raiders loss is the easiest path forward, but depending on the tiebreakers, it might not guarantee that BYU has the advantage.Â
To make a long story short: Yes, the Cougars could still win the Big 12 this year, though it’s not likely. The only other two-loss conference opponent who could take their bid in the Big 12 title game on their schedule is Baylor, and they play the Bears this season. Other than that, to ensure they can have one final shot at the CFP, the Cougars need Houston, Texas Tech and possibly Oklahoma State to all take another loss.Â
What BYU needs to do to give itself the best chance at getting to the CFP this season
The biggest thing BYU needs to do is win out. They can’t afford any more losses; a three-loss team will probably get into the field this year, but it won’t be BYU. Winning out gives them the best chance to get into the Big 12 title game, which could be their only path to the CFP this year. It will be difficult to get an at-large bid without a conference championship. It will all come down to how the selection committee views the loss to Utah. BYU also needs to blowout every remaining team on their schedule. The eye test, which has been an evaluating tool by the committee in years past, could be the one thing that helps Kalani Sitake's team.
Their remaining schedule includes Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati. None of those teams are ranked, and only Baylor is still relevant in the Big 12 championship game conversation. The Cougars need to finish the season strong, win the games they’re supposed to dominate. Anything less than convincing wins the rest of the way and the selection committee could use that against BYU.
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