Oregon’s loss to Oklahoma State is going to loom over this team for all season. It’s a bad loss and a microcosm of how bad of a start Oregon has had to the 2026 season. The Ducks are 1-1 and they are in a conference that gets more College Football Playoff bids than not so they’ll have opportunities to rebuild their College Football Playoff resume the rest of the way. The question becomes, which games now are the most important for them to win. Is there a reality where they could afford another loss and still get in?
We’ll dive into Oregon’s new path to the College Football Playoff this season. The regular season has treated Oregon well since the expansion of the CFP with the Ducks going 23-1 the last two years, not including conference championship weekend. Oregon is having an unconventional start to the season, that doesn’t mean it can’t get better. It also doesn’t mean this is the end.
Here’s what Oregon needs to do to get back on track. The College Football Playoff selection committee has punished teams before for early season losses. That doesn’t mean Oregon will fall victim either.
Why Oregon’s schedule is set up for them to still reach the CFP
- Only have three ranked opponents remaining
- Shouldn’t struggle with conference opponents
- Don’t need a conference championship to get into the CFP
In two weeks, Oregon’s biggest test of the season will be up. USC and Lincoln Riley have every reason to spoil the Ducks’ season. This could be the game that ultimately changes the trajectory of their season. In the latest AP top 25 poll, the Ducks dropped to No. 21 after losing to Oklahoma State. They have Portland State next week, which should be a cake walk, and then conference play begins.
Toughest opponents remaining
DATE | OPPONENT |
|---|---|
Sept. 26 | at No. 12 USC Trojans |
Nov. 7 | at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes |
Nov. 14 | vs. No. 19 Michigan Wolverines |
Nov. 28 | vs. Washington Huskies |
If they want to convince the CFP selection committee that they deserve one of the at-large bids, these are the types of games they have to win. They can’t afford “bad losses”, if you will. Ohio State can probably get into the CFP, despite losing to Texas on Saturday night. Oregon won’t be able to get in with losses to Oklahoma State and USC.
That sets up Oregon’s tough slate to end the season. They have to play at Ohio State, then host Michigan and then two weeks later, host Washington. That stretch will determine Oregon’s fate in the CFP. That’s assuming they don’t fall apart before then.
Potential trap games for Oregon after upset loss to Oklahoma State
DATE | OPPONENT |
|---|---|
Oct. 10 | vs. UCLA Bruis |
Oct. 24 | at Illinois Fighting Illini |
Nov. 20 | at Michigan State |
As formidable as Oregon’s schedule is, we can’t just assume the only games that will challenge them will be against the ranked opponents. After all, the first two weeks were supposed to be relatively easy and the Ducks struggled. Factor in conference play, Oregon could run into a team that makes them work a bit harder than they anticipated in conference play. One of those teams could be UCLA. The Ducks will play the Bruins after a clash with USC. Regardless of how that game unfolds, a clash with UCLA could be a game, like Oklahoma State, Oregon struggles in.
UCLA is already off to a better start than last year with new coach Bob Chesney and though Maryland and Purdue aren’t exactly the Big Ten’s elite, they’re good tune up games for the Bruins ahead of their first test of the season against Oregon.
The other game on this schedule that could upend Oregon’s season is the Michigan State game. It’s the second to last game, the Ducks have to play in East Lansing and it’s right before rivalry and right after games against Ohio State and Michigan. That’s the exact game that could derail a season. Depending on how things go in the final month of the season for Oregon, that Michigan State game could be an important win for Oregon to get.
It’s also a game they could slip up in again. Oregon has dominated the regular season and hasn’t really struggled against teams they should beat. This year, they’ve shown they aren’t quite the threat they have been. A close win against Boise State doesn’t look as bad as a loss to Oklahoma State. But if they continue to struggle in conference play, their College Football Playoff streak will be in jeopardy.
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