The College Football Playoff selection committee isn't necessarily going to end a team's national title hopes solely because of injuries, but it certainly could. The precedent it set just a few years ago can be applied to multiple programs currently in the hunt, which would be unfortunate for them but allowed.
Let's travel back in time just a little bit. It's Nov. 18, 2023, and No. 4 Florida State was facing cupcake North Alabama in a late-season non-conference bout. Star quarterback Jordan Travis broke his leg and dislocated his left ankle in the first quarter. The Seminoles still went on to win 58-13, but just a few weeks later, with backup Tate Rodemaker replacing Travis, Florida State (13-0) slipped to No. 5, becoming the first undefeated champion of a major conference to be left out of the CFP, then just four teams.
Florida State QB Jordan Travis speaks out after falling out of the CFP Top 4 pic.twitter.com/It01l54SWt
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 3, 2023
The committee cited the program's lack of a star starting passer and Rodemaker's underwhelming play as reason enough to relegate it outside the playoff field. While it was a much smaller bracket then, compared with today's 12-team format, there's bound to be a team on the bubble that must face a similar scenario. There's nothing it can do to call it unfair either.
CFP injury precedent: How Florida State's anguish haunts every future title contender
The easiest example of a potentially title-breaking injury this year is at Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost starting QB Julian Sayin to a throwing shoulder injury at the end of their dramatic 19-15 win over Indiana, and freshman backup Luke Fahey just isn't cutting it. However, the committee doesn't even need to point to Sayin's absence as the reason to keep Ohio State out of the 12-team field. It accrued back-to-back losses for the first time since 2011.
Given that Fahey and the rest of the Buckeyes' offense has fallen flat on their faces, there's no way Ohio State passes the eye test even if it finishes the year with three losses. The Florida State precedent would still be applied to make sure it finishes no better than 13th.
Where it could really get interesting is with Miami and Texas. Neither program has lost a star quarterback, but they both have to go without major playmakers. The Hurricanes lost wide receiver Malachi Toney to ankle surgery and subsequently lost their first game of the season to then-No. 11 Notre Dame. The Longhorns lost running back Hollywood Smothers to an MCL tear and sat at No. 7 in the initial CFP rankings.
At the moment, neither team seems in danger of missing the playoff for injury reasons. In fact, with Toney projected to return for a potential postseason run, Miami could be spared. However, if either limps to the finish line with uninspiring and tight performances across the final weeks, the committee could easily apply its eye test and injury precedent to determine they are not among the best 12 teams in the country.
It's a brutal way to cut out the pretenders, but even as Florida State fans complained in 2023, their team was eviscerated by No. 6 Georgia 63-3 at the non-playoff Orange Bowl. Every potential contender going forward will be haunted by the specter of that year's Seminoles and the possibility of becoming the next victim of that precedent.
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