To say USC is playing one of, if not the, most important game of its season on Saturday wouldn't be an understatement. That goes especially for head coach Lincoln Riley.: The USC fan base has been more than patient with his tenure, now in year five, and if the Trojans are going to finally reward that patience by reaching the College Football Playoff, then a win over a vulnerable (but still strong) Oregon team is a must-have.
The No. 20 Ducks enter as 2.5-point favorites over No. 12 USC, and that's even considering the fact that Oregon is two weeks removed from a shocking upset loss to Oklahoma State. The Trojans are ranked higher, are at home and have the most to lose (and gain) from this matchup. Oh, and the Ducks just put up 84 points on Portland State in Week 3.
History isn't exactly on Riley and USC's side either. Oregon has won six of the last seven matchups dating back to 2012, and the Trojans have lost three of the last four matchups at home in that span. A loss won't get Riley fired on the spot — well, unless the Ducks make his team look like Portland State on national television — but failing to keep things close will further enflame the calls for his dismissal.
How much is Lincoln Riley's buyout?
Riley is in year five of his 10-year, $110 million contract, and he's being paid $12.5 million this year alone. Should the university find it's time to move on from him, it'll have to shell out at least $60 million to send him packing.
The exact value of Riley's buyout is unknown. ESPN claimed it was reportedly north of $80 million, but either way, the school has to bite a significant financial bullet to end his tenure in Los Angeles. And Riley is well aware of the pressure on his shoulders this year. Though, that could work against him if the team is yielding the same Playoff-less results.
"It's what it's supposed to feel like here," Riley said at Big Ten media days over the summer. "Expectations and all that are always there and I've never shied away from those ... This wasn't going to turn around without some bumps along the way ... I'm not asking for anybody's sympathy."
And sympathy he has not received, especially over the last couple years the expanded 12-team Playoff has existed. Not qualifying for the original four-team bracket for all those years was frustrating but understandable; not qualifying with seven at-large bids available is borderline unacceptable for a program and fan base yearning to end its 22-year national championship drought (yes, 2004 was technically vacated, but good luck arguing that with them).
Oregon win is crucial to USC's College Football Playoff hopes
Beating Oregon on Saturday puts USC on the inside track for Playoff selection, with or without a Big Ten title game appearance. The Trojans would still have road trips to Indiana and Penn State on the docket — and lord knows this team doesn't do well heading east — plus a home date with Ohio State. But with a win over the Ducks, Riley and Co. would need to snag just one of those remaining three ranked games in order to feel good about a 10-2 finish — and that would almost assuredly be enough to get them into the field come season's end.
A loss, however, would reignite the same narrative that Riley just cannot win the big games and should be put in the same dismal category as James Frankin, John Cooper and Brian Kelly. It would also suddenly put USC's season on the brink; their margin for error would be almost nil at that point, and they'd need to go at least 2-1 in the at Indiana/at Penn State/vs. Ohio State gauntlet to have a shot. Given how poor the team has looked in Big Ten road games in the past, that's not a gamble Riley should be comfortable making.
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