On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its first top 25 of the 2026 season. And to them we say: Good luck making sense of the complete chaos that's unfolded over the last two months, when up has been down, left has been right and top-10 teams have been dropping like flies.
And yet, make sense of it they must, as this is what we've decided is the best way for this wonderfully ridiculous sport to crown a national champion. The initial rankings reveal doesn't mean all that much in the grand scheme of things; a whole lot will change between now and the final bracket in December, starting with several titanic ranked-on-ranked matchups coming up this Saturday. But it can still tell us which programs have (and haven't) caught the committee's eye, and who's got the inside track on first-round byes and the final at-large bids.
Trying to predict what a hotel conference room full of college football luminaries (and also athletic directors) will do is a fool's errand, but here goes nothing anyway. Here's what we think the top 25 will look like on Tuesday night, and what it means for the 12-team bracket picture.
Predicting the first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings
- Miami Hurricanes (8-0)
- Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
- Utah Utes (8-0)
- Kentucky Wildcats (7-1)
- BYU Cougars (7-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
- UCLA Bruins (8-0)
- Indiana Hoosiers (8-1)
- Texas Longhorns (6-2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (6-2)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1)
- Tennessee Volunteers (6-2)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)
- LSU Tigers (6-2)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-1)
- USC Trojans (7-2)
- Missouri Tigers (6-2)
- Houston Cougars (6-2)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3)
- Florida Gators (5-3)
- Boise State Broncos (7-1)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)
- Arizona Wildcats (6-2)
- Northwestern Wildcats (6-2)
Miami is No. 1 with a bullet, as a preseason title favorite that remains unbeaten. I think the committee will give one-loss Georgia the nod over another unbeaten, Utah, for the No. 2 spot, as the Utes were less than comprehensive in their one quality win so far (at home over Houston) and have survived a couple of scares.
The committee might think even less of the final unbeaten, UCLA, whose win over Oregon doesn't look nearly as shiny as it did at the time. The Bruins simply haven't proven much by the committee's criteria; don't be surprised if they fall behind several one-loss teams — particularly Notre Dame. And if they're behind the Irish, they'll be behind BYU as well, given that the Cougars hold the head-to-head advantage.
Speaking of which: Texas' head-to-head win over Ole Miss should help their ranking tremendously, as does Tennessee's win over Alabama when it comes to parsing the huge pile of two-loss contenders. Indiana's scare against Minnesota, plus the uncertain status of Josh Hoover moving forward, could have them at the bottom of the one-loss pile, while Wake Forest has the profile of a committee snub whether that's justified or not.
Lastly, there's the Group of 6. The fifth and final autobid will go to the highest-ranked G6 team, not the highest-ranked G6 conference champion. That will almost certainly be Boise State for now, as they've been a bit more convincing in their wins than New Mexico has.
Projected 12-team College Football Playoff bracket
As a quick refresher: The top four teams, regardless of conference champion status, will earn first-round byes. Each of the four power-conference champions will automatically earn a spot in the 12-team bracket, but they'll be seeded according to their strength of resume. The fifth automatic spot goes to the highest-ranked G6 team, with the other seven spots going to at-large teams. The No. 5 team will host No. 12 at home in the first round, with No. 6 vs. No 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10 and No. 8 vs. No. 9.
First-round byes
- No. 1 Miami
- No. 2 Georgia
- No. 3 Utah
- No. 4 Kentucky
Miami and Utah are locks here if they can run the table the rest of the way and win their respective conferences, as is whoever wins the SEC. Kentucky stands out here a bit, but they have wins over LSU and South Carolina and only one loss so far — against Alabama, in a game they led at halftime. The committee will respect that for now.
First-round matchups
That leaves us with some very juicy first-round matchups, including another Ohio State-Notre Dame slugfest and Texas traveling to take on the reigning champs.
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 BYU
- No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 UCLA
- No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Indiana
It also leaves Tennessee, Alabama, LSU and more SEC contenders out. There are simply too few spots for too many teams with a case; someone (or more likely someones) will be left standing when the music stops, considering there are only seven at-large bids and at least three or four of those are likely to be hoovered up by the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC.
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