Week 2 of college football did not lack for excitement or surprises. The day started with Michigan bouncing back from last week's embarrassing win by handling No. 11 Oklahoma a costly loss. It continued with a weather-delayed game between No. 6 Oregon and Oklahoma State producing one of the biggest upsets of the last several years. And it ended with No. 1 Ohio State blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead to No. 4 Texas, upending everything we thought about the College Football Playoff picture in 15 minutes.
We know the college football rankings are going to undergo a huge shake-up. Let's look at what the CFB bracket looks like now that we know the outcomes of Week 2.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket after Texas beats Ohio State, Oregon upset
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Miami
- Texas
- Notre Dame
- Texas Tech
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Ole Miss
- USC
- BYU
- Boise State
Ohio State blew it vs. Texas, but not with the CFP
Ohio State deserves credit for going on the road to face the No. 4 team in the country on the road. A lot of other programs would have disappeared that matchup from their schedule. With that credit given...
Wow, did the Buckeyes blow it. Texas gifted them the game with turnovers and blunders in the first half. The Longhorns scored three points in the first three quarters. Ohio State led by 20 going into the fourth quarter and somehow they lost. Going back to 2004, AP No. 1 teams were 197-0 when leading by 20 points in the fourth quarter. Ohio State made it 197-1.
Ryan Day mismanaged the end of this game. The Buckeyes offense got complacent and conservative. Their inability to stay on the field put strain on their defense. Essentially playing prevent let Arch Manning get into a rhythm late. The scoreboard tells the rest of the story.
Despite that collapse, I expect Ohio State to make it to the Big Ten title game this year. The Buckeyes have the most dangerous player in college football in Jeremiah Smith. He made that more than clear with six catches for 110 yards and a touchdown in the first half alone. They'll beat most of the teams on their schedule. A loss to Indiana, they can survive. The trouble comes if they can't handle USC on the road or Oregon at home (or Michigan). I'm not willing to take the Trojans or Ducks in those games (or Michigan) just yet.
Texas flips the script on Ohio State, and their CFP snub
Last year, you could argue losing to Ohio State kept Texas out of the playoff. In truth, losing to Florida did the trick, but the Ohio State loss certainly didn't help. This year the Longhorns have their margin of error back. And they might need it.
All of their remaining road games are against currently-ranked opposition: No. 18 Tennessee, No. 23 Missouri, No. 8 LSU and No. 10 Texas A&M. They host No. 9 Ole Miss and have the Red River Rivalry with Oklahoma.
I'm picking LSU to beat them outright and I wouldn't be surprised if they stumbled against a team like Tennessee, Ole Miss or A&M. The errors that put them in a hole against Ohio State are the same kinds that would put them into trouble against any of those teams.
However, they just showed us how resiliant they can be even when they give the edge to the other team. Arch Manning's response in the fourth quarter is the stuff that game-changing quarterbacks are made of. And huge credit to the Longhorns' defense for their second-half effort. They're not a team that anyone will find it easy to score on.
That's why I'm comfortable with Texas ending the regular season at 11-1 before losing to Georgia in the SEC title game.
USC gets in over Oregon
Losses have consequences, and I suspect Oregon's loss to Oklahoma State will keep them out of the CFP. I'm projecting the Ducks to lose road games to USC and Ohio State, falling to 9-3. Everything hinges on the USC matchup, because it's the Trojans who take their place in the bracket.
I'm not here to equate Oregon's early schedule with USC's. The Trojans have beaten up on completely outmatched competition while Oregon struggled with the best G6 team in the country and a power conference opponent. Still, an Oregon team that can lose to Oklahoma State on the road can absolutely lose to USC on the road.
The Ducks have had USC's number of late, but the Trojans were severely lacking on the defensive side. New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson seems to have hit the ground running with a more talent-laden defense and Lincoln Riley's offense is always good for points, especially with Jayden Maiava and a corps of exciting freshmen receivers.
Oregon's offensive line simply doesn't look up to the level of previous seasons. Quarterback Dante Moore doesn't look like he's progressed. Going from Will Stein to Drew Mehringer at offensive coordinator has not gone smoothly.
And then there's the defense, which has all the pieces they need to be successful. However, defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi's departure and promoting Chris Hampton to replace him also appears to have taken a toll. The Ducks gave up 27 points or more just three times last year. They've given up that many in each of their first two games.
Oklahoma isn't in the CFP picture
There was a whole lot on the line in Ann Arbor for Oklahoma. Losing to Michigan may have just set their season on fire. The schedule is too tough. I just don't see how they make it through with fewer than two losses in conference play.
The Sooners' schedule is brutal:
- New Mexico
- at (2) Georgia
- vs. (4) Texas
- vs. Kentucky
- at Mississippi State
- vs. South Carolina
- at Florida
- vs. (9) Ole Miss
- vs. (10) Texas A&M
- at (23) Missouri
In addition to not stumbling against any of the unranked teams in front of them, the Sooners have to go 3-1 against current top 10 teams. Or they need to hope a three-loss team in the regular season has a chance to make the field of 12.
Boise State is the G6 rep until proven otherwise
Despite their loss to Oregon (which doesn't look as good this week as it did last week), Boise State is firmly in the driver's seat in the race to represent the G6 in the CFP. The Broncos beat Memphis, 38-20, overcoming a 17-3 deficit in the first half by outscoring the Tigers 35-3 to end it.
Boise State was already the top vote getter in the AP Top 25 out of the G6 and they've already played their two toughest matchups of the year. The rest of the way, they'll be favored to win the revamped Pac-12.
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