Table for 12: Preseason College Football Playoff bracket predictions

Week 0 began our 15-week-long game of musical chairs we know as college football. There are just 12 seats at the College Football Playoff table, and all 138 FBS programs want to be sitting in one when the music stops in December. 

All season long, college football fans want to know who is going to be invited to that exclusive dinner party, and that’s why Table for 12 exists. Every Sunday morning I’ll be taking you through the 12 most important things that happened in college football that week. I’ll let you know who grabbed a seat at the bar, who just made their reservation, and who’s paying their check and going home. 

But right now, as the earliest preparations for our college football dinner party begin, I’m here to predict which teams will be feasting this fall. This is the official Table for 12 College Football Playoff prediction for all you lovely readers to throw back in my face as I’m continually proven wrong throughout the year. 

There’s a clear top seven in college football this season. I have my gripes with the order, but the AP Poll got the right group with No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Indiana, and No. 7 Miami. 

Now, just because that group of teams is most likely to make the field, all above 35 percent by Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections, doesn’t mean they all will. In fact, I’d bet two miss the CFP altogether, but I’m not brave enough to try to pick both. Instead, I’ll call my shot on one. 

As bulletproof as Kirby Smart seems to be, Georgia looks the most fragile to me. That schedule is just friendly, but because of that, a 9-3 Georgia may end up on the outside looking in. The pass rush was non-existent last year, ranking No. 90 in pressure rate and No. 128 in sack rate, and I don’t think it’s gotten any better. Some will bet on Gunner Stockton to carry this team, but I’m not one of them. He’s moxie personified, but in a year with legit first-round NFL prospects leading multiple contenders, I’ll take a big swing and fade the Dawgs. 

As for who takes their seat at the table, well, let’s dig in. 

12 - Boise State Broncos: 11-1 (Pac-12 Champions)

So long as the College Football Playoff continues to have a kids’ table, we’ll have to wade through the confusion of the Group of Six to find a representative. To me, this comes down to Memphis’s Week 2 trip to Boise, and because it’s being played on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium, I’ll give the nod to my predicted Pac-12 Champion over my predicted American champ. 

11 - Louisville Cardinals: 11-2 ACC runner-ups at-large

This is my sleeper, dark-horse, surprise pick, whatever you want to call it. I think Louisville is legit good; the only question is whether a two-loss ACC team can make the CFP, even if one of those losses is to Miami in the ACC title game. I’ll say that the Big Ten and the SEC, now playing a nine-game conference schedule, will both cannibalize themselves enough to open the door. 

Louisville is built in a bit of a non-traditional way when you weigh positional value. The Cardinals are stacked at running back and linebacker, and while it's fair to question if those are the most important places to allocate resources, it makes them reliable on both sides of the ball. Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown make up one of the most dynamic backfield duos, and now with Lincoln Kienholz coming from Ohio State, this run game should be devastating. 

Miller Moss notwithstanding, I trust Jeff Brohm to develop the quarterback position, and with a deep backfield and an edge rusher like Clev Lubin, who can close games out, this team will be hard to beat when it dictates the terms of engagement. Can it do that to Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss in Week 1? That has me holding my breath with this pick, but I’m willing to go out on a limb and hope it doesn’t break. 

10 - Alabama Crimson Tide: 10-2 (at-large)

Alabama had serious offensive line issues last season, which compounded problems in the run game and put far too much on Ty Simpson’s shoulders. Eventually, Simpson took a few too many hits and broke down. Still, even with ugly losses in the SEC Championship Game to Georgia and the Rose Bowl to Indiana, the Tide were the only team to win a road playoff game. 

Now, DeBoer will have a third different starting QB in his third year in Tuscaloosa, breaking in former five-star Keelon Russell. Russell’s mobility should provide a stable floor to the run game, and five-star freshman EJ Crowell can bring even more juice to a backfield that desperately needs it. 

I see the offense taking enough steps forward, and, along with a defense that pairs an elite secondary with a top-flight pass-rusher in Yhonzae Pierre, DeBoer should have enough to keep the fanbase from turning on him. 

9 - Oklahoma Sooners: 10-2 at-large

I’ve never bought into the John Mateer hype. He was a supreme athlete who dominated at Washington State with his overwhelming physical advantages, but he doesn’t see the field well, and though he’s a torqued-up thrower, he doesn’t have great touch. Now that he looks like a bodybuilder, I question how loose he’ll be to change arm angles when throwing off-platform. 

All of that being said, the Oklahoma offense finished No. 82 in adjusted EPA/play and No. 99 in success rate (per gameonpaper). If those numbers tick up even to FBS average, that can offset any defensive regression with the losses of R Mason Thomas and Gracen Halton. And, there may not be much regression on Brent Venables' side of the ball, especially with the junior defensive tackle duo of David Stone and Jayden Jackson coming into their own. 

8 - Texas Tech Red Raiders 12-1 (Big 12 Champion)

The No. 8 seed might seem low for a 12-1 Power 4 conference champion, but such is the state of the Big 12 in 2026. Texas Tech simply outspends the rest of the league by a wide margin, and while there was no David Bailey in its transfer portal class this year, mega-booster Cody Campbell helped Joey McGuire reload his team’s defensive front with Adam Trick, Mateen Ibirogba, Bryce Butler, and Trey White. 

That group should overwhelm most Big 12 offensive lines. But will it be as good as last year’s, which ranked No. 14 in pressure rate despite blitzing on just 24.8 percent of passing downs, the eighth-lowest rate in the country? Almost certainly not. 

If Brendan Sorsby hadn’t gambled away his career, I’d view this team as a legitimate national championship contender, but with Will Hammond, who struggled in relief of Behren Morton last season and is coming off a knee injury, another Big 12 title is probably the ceiling. 

7 - Indiana Hoodiers: 11-1 (at-large)

Since the Preseason AP Top 25 came out, I’ve been telling anyone who will listen that Curt Cignetti and Indiana are being disrespected again, ranked No. 6 after winning the national championship and reloading with an elite transfer portal haul. So how do I have 11-1 Indiana at No. 7 in my CFP field? Well, I see Ohio State avenging last year’s Big Ten title game loss in the regular season, which would likely keep the Hoosiers stuck behind the Buckeyes, who I could see losing to Texas and Oregon twice.

As for this year’s iteration of the Hoosiers, TCU transfer QB Josh Hoover will be somewhere between Kurtis Rourke and Fernando Mendoza, which may not be enough to win another title but, with Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh at wide receiver, will be plenty good against most of the country. 

Marsh is also a great example of how Cignetti is leveling up his talent acquisition. Rather than simply going after proven production in the portal, which Marsh has some of, Indiana is taking some bigger swings on high-upside players like Turbo Richard at running back and Kansas State edges Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi, which could make the program a bit more volatile. 

6 - Ohio State Buckeyes: 10-3 (Big Ten runner-up at-large)

Ohio State might just be impervious to talent drain at this point, but it’s hard to imagine Matt Patricia’s defense being quite as dominant after sending Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, Kayden McDonald, and more into the NFL. 

Even if that side of the ball takes a step back, which it actually might not, Julian Sayin should be better in Year 2 as the Buckeyes' starter, and he still has Jeremiah Smith to throw to. With Arthur Smith calling plays now, I expect more of the slow-paced, 12-personnel attack Ryan Day and Brian Hartline unlocked last year; I just don’t know that Sayin, who struggled with pressure at times last season, is built to outduel Arch Manning and Dante Moore. 

5 - LSU Tigers: 11-2 (SEC runner-up at-large)

It’s not especially reassuring that Lane Kiffin feels the need to defy the SEC by potentially bringing back Dae’Quan Wright and Zxavien Harris from the NFL, but I’ll choose to read it positively. This program spared no expense in building its team this offseason with a roster creeping towards $50 million, and even with all the drama, it’s hard to doubt such an assemblage of talent. 

No matter where he is, Kiffin is going to get the offense right, including the run game, which never got going during Brian Kelly’s time in Baton Rouge. As for the passing game, Sam Leavitt isn’t the most polished quarterback in the world, but no coach in college football simplifies things as well for his QBs as Kiffin, and there is no shortage of weapons, led by the sport’s premier red-zone threat, 6-foot-7 tight end Trey’Dez Green. 

4 - Miami Hurricanes: 12-1 (ACC Champion)

In most cases, I’m not in a hurry to back a team that lost as much talent in the trenches as Miami did this offseason, but Mario Cristobal is different. Five-star offensive lineman Jackson Cantwell is coming in to plug a hole at guard, and after having two first-round edge rushers last year, the Hurricanes might have two first-round defensive tackles this spring in Justin Scott and Ahmad Moten Sr. 

Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson will get to open things up in his power-spread attack with Darian Mensah, an experienced distributor who makes great decisions, throws with elite touch and accuracy, and is surgical in the red zone. He’s a clear upgrade over Carson Beck, and with Cooper Barkate following him from Duke to join Malachi Toney at wide receiver, Miami is probably better than it was last season. 

3 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 12-0 (Top-12 auto-bid)

Notre Dame has two real tests this regular season: Week 7 out in Provo and when Miami comes to South Bend in Week 10. Other than that, the Fighting Irish should cut through this schedule like a hot knife through soft butter. 

There’s a lot to like about this roster, but the secondary is the start of the show. With Leonard Moore, the best defensive back in the country, defensive coordinator Chris Ash played the third-highest rate of man coverage last season, allowing just a 37.4 percent passing success rate (No. 16 per gameonpaper). That group may be even better with the addition of DJ McKinney from Colorado, which kicks Christian Gray inside and allows Adon Shuler to roam free. 

My hesitations are on the offensive side. CJ Carr has NFL potential, but how does he perform without two first-round running backs in the backfield with him? Just as important, does either of the Ohio State transfer Quincy Porter Jr. or Mylan Graham turn into a viable No. 1 outside the numbers? 

2 - Texas Longhorns: 12-1 (SEC Champions)

Even the Mannings are human. The latest edition proved that with his early-season struggles last year. However, it wasn’t just Arch Manning. Texas had a shaky offensive line and a more limited group of pass catchers than anybody wanted to admit. Now, after adding Melvin Siani at tackle and Cam Coleman at wide receiver this offseason, the Longhorns are loaded. Oh, and by season’s end, Manning looked like the best quarterback in the country. 

The top of the sport is flattening as NIL and the transfer portal continue to spread talent across the 25-or-so programs that are actually spending. So, rather than banking on the depth of a program stockpiling five-stars year over year, give me the team that has high-end superstars. 

Manning, Coleman, edge rusher Colin Simmons, and left tackle Trevor Goosby could all be top 10 picks this spring, and they’re at the four most valuable positions in the sport. That’s why Texas is my title pick this year. 

1 - Oregon Ducks: 13-0 (Big Ten Champions)

Dan Lanning has been knocking on the door. Could this finally be the year he breaks through? He’s got the team to do it, returning one of the most loaded defensive lines in the sport, a young, talented secondary bolstered by the addition of Koi Perich, and a largely home-grown offense with enough weapons for Dante Moore to deliver a Heisman Trophy season. 

The biggest questions are on the sideline. How does this coaching staff respond after losing both its play-callers from last season, Will Stein on offense and Tosh Lupoi on defense? I trust the infrastructure there enough to see a huge regular season, but that brain drain could catch up to the Ducks in the CFP.

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