College Football Playoff expansion is closer than many realized. On Tuesday, the leaders of the CFP officially opened what is known as a "negotiating window" with ESPN, the official broadcaster of the playoff. That means the CFP is willing to "explore" expansion in a formal way it hadn't before.
"The CFP has decided to move forward in its evaluation of potential Playoff expansion to 24 teams by beginning a media rights discussion with ESPN," the CFP said in a statement Tuesday. "This does not represent a decision or commitment to expand, but rather an opportunity to engage with ESPN and gather additional information to help determine a path forward. The CFP will provide additional updates when appropriate."
The negotiating window is a complicated process that indicates one thing more than it confirms the existence of another. In this case, it's just discussions to determine the revenue increase (if any) for expanding the playoff and losing conference championship games. That's a huge change to the college season, one that comes with whopping consequences.
Will ESPN's negotiating window bear CFP expansion fruit?
Opening the window this quickly means the CFP is looking to potentially vote on expansion to begin as soon as 2027. Of course, that may be a hasty timeline considering the Big Ten and SEC would have to both agree to the changes by Dec. 1 and that's already a busy time of year for the conferences.
The negotiating window is only 30 days long and could begin as soon as Wednesday, per an ESPN report. If no agreement is reached then the CFP can market the additional 10-game slate openly with the network allowed to match any offers.
So for the CFP to risk opening the window and having to potentially work with other partners on the expanded competition, there's real signals the Big Ten and SEC may be close to being on the same page about a 24-team format. The changes are significant would eliminate over $200 million in revenue outside physical gameday moneymakers like tickets and sponsorships, that is, unless expansion replaces it all with interest.
Should a 24-team playoff be adopted, the regular season would begin on what is currently known as "Week 0" in late August and then end on Thanksgiving weekend when traditional rivalry games take place. Organizers for the Army-Navy game would look to shift that contest to the following Saturday, where league title games would've occurred.
The bracket would consist of the 23 highest-ranked teams and the best Group of Six representative with no automatic qualifiers. It essentially leaves the selection entirely in the hands of the committee, which could get messy if there are multi-way ties at the top of power conferences. The first and second rounds of the tournament would be held on campuses before moving to neutral venues hosted by New Years Six bowls.
It'll be some time before any word of expansion is handed down officially, but the tide seems to be pulling in that direction for now. It would likely take a significant evaluation signaling more monetary loss than gain for CFP leaders and conferences to make an about face on the issue entirely.
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