The math just got more complicated for fans and pundits attempting to keep up with how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will determine which 12 teams will participate in the postseason. On Thursday the committee announced a new data point that will be considered within the overall equation to determine the strength of each conference.
Per ESPN's Heather Dinich, it will essentially "put a number to answer the question: how tough is the daily grind in the each league? It’s not even equal within them." Here she explains in greater detail:
"The CFP selection committee will incorporate another data point in late November that helps determine the strength of each conference based on the schedule strength of each team in its league. It will help separate teams in the SAME LEAGUE with similar records based on the strength of their conference opponents. (Ex: PSU doesn’t play Oregon, Ohio State or IU) It will also help separate teams with comparable records in different conferences based on how tough their league opponents were."
CFP's new conference measuring stick addresses bothersome selection criticism
How exactly that numerical value will be scaled has yet to be revealed but at least the committee is evolving and considering a critical fact. Due to conference expansion and limited weeks in the schedule, many teams -- often those near the top of the standings -- don't face other contenders within their own league until the title game. It provides a limited answer to the hypothetical, "Would Indiana have lost to Michigan or USC in 2025, possibly altering their path to the national title?"
Dinich, however, included a critical caveat to how much weight the selection committee will be applying to this new data point. Quality wins, schedule strength, record strength and the all-important "eye test" will still be the main pillars of earning a playoff berth. This new information will only inform a portion of how the committee determines how strong schedules and records really are.
Despite that, it's reasonable to fear the additional data point will only further complicate matters when the 12-team bracket is eventually unveiled. Are there value descrepencies between the SEC and Big Ten? Is a team hurt from the fact that other teams in its conference had softer intra-league schedules, therefore, anchoring the conference's strength value?
To return to the example from last season, would this data point have detracted from Indiana's undefeated record and potentially weighed it down to the point of losing the No. 1 overall seed? The Hoosiers only faced Ohio State in the conference title game and avoided several other ranked foes in the Big Ten. The same goes for several of their opponents due to the immense size of the league. Would the Big Ten have been given a lower "score" than the SEC, thus elevating Georgia -- the No. 3 seed -- into a higher seeding and altering the bracket outcome considerably?
Unless there's further clarification from the selection committee on the math itself, this new category could very well create further confusion and reason for criticism. Albeit, that's the nature of this sport nowadays anyways. Fans -- who care enough to begin with -- will have to be patient until further guidance is issued on the matter.
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