Just getting to tee it up at The Open Championship is a tremendous honor given the history and prestige of this tournament. However, none of the players going into this week at Royal Birkdale were looking for a British Open participation trophy. They came to Southport with intentions to contend and perhaps even to win. To do that, though, they first need to be sure to make the cut at The Open, so that they can even play the weekend of the year's final major championship.
The British Open cut line is one of the least stringent among the four majors, and it can also vary wildly in terms of the cut number itself given the rotation of courses and the variable conditions. Having said that, we have the latest projections that will be updating through the second round to see what The Open cut line will end up being. But first, let's refresh on the rules and how many players will make it to see the weekend at Birkdale.
How many players make the cut at the British Open?
The Top 70 players and the players tied within the Top 70 after 36 holes will make the cut at The Open Championship this week at Royal Birkdale. Even with a massive field of players, the British Open has one of the more lenient cut rules in golf, especially among the four major championships. It's worth noting that we've seen the cut rules evolve at The Open over the years as well — and with that, also important to say that the 10-shot rule, which means any player within 10 shots of the lead after 36 holes would also play the weekend, is no longer in effect for this tournament.
As for how The Open Championship cut rules compare to the other four major championships, this tournament has the same rules in place as the PGA Championship. However, those two majors allow the most players on the leaderboard to see the weekend. The U.S. Open cut features the Top 60 and ties, while the Masters Tournament and the limited field at Augusta pushes only the Top 50 and ties through to play the weekend.
Cut line prediction for The Open Championship
The current projected cut line for the 2026 British Open is at +1 for the tournament at Royal Birkdale. That's not a guarantee, as, especially at this championship, the conditions and scoring can turn on a dime and shift the cut line in either direction. However, based on the latest modeling and data, the most likely cut line is at 1-over par for the first 36 holes of play. Given that we're expecting similar conditions to the afternoon, the cut ending up slightly over par makes complete sense.
Data Golf has the latest projections for the cut line at The Open and is forecasting a 62.5% chance of the number landing at +1. However, it's worth noting that there is also still a 24.1% chance that the cut line stays higher at even par for the first two rounds, and an even more marginal probability that it goes even higher to +2 with the model giving that just a 13.4% chance of happening.
Again, though, it's worth noting that the cut line at The Open Championship can be notoriously difficult to predict. As so many courses like Royal Birkdale can be entirely different based on the wind speeds and directions switching, just one instance of weather could change the projections dramatically. That's why we'll keep you updated throughout the second round.
Projections will continue to update throughout the round.
British Open cut line for the last 5 years
Year (Course) | Cut Line | Number of Players to Make the Cut |
|---|---|---|
2025 (Royal Portrush) | +1 | 70 |
2024 (Royal Troon) | +6 | 80 |
2023 (Royal Liverpool) | +3 | 76 |
2022 (St. Andrews) | E | 83 |
2021 (Royal St. Georges) | +1 | 77 |
If the cut line at the 2026 Open Championship ends up at +1, it will be the third time in the last six years, despite being at different courses, that the number has ended up at that point after 36 holes. Royal Troon is by far the most demanding cut line that we've seen, given that it was well over par at 6-over that still got players in to see the weekend.
However, one thing to note is that the last British Open at Royal Birkdale back in 2017 resulted in a much more demanding test, at least according to the scoring, as the cut line ended up at +5 with 77 players making it into the weekend. It was much more of a bear to handled the elements that week than it has been over the first two rounds this year, so it makes sense why the cut line was so different.
With that being said, the final scoring in 2026 could end up quite similar to back in 2017, despite the multi-stroke difference in the cut lines. The weather is supposed to freshen up for the weekend at Royal Birkdale, while the course continues to bake out and play firm and fast. If that's the case, it's only going to get harder out there and should ultimately leave us with a similar winning score.
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