The Open Championship or the British Open — whichever you want to call it — signals the end of major championship season in 2026. However, to cap off what's been a highly entertaining major season (perhaps outside of Wyndham Clark largely running away with the U.S. Open), the trip to Royal Birkdale should be worth the wait. After all, we saw the drama Jordan Spieth delivered the last time The Open was here back in 2017, and while he's not part of our picks this week, we're hoping for similar entertainment and drama.
Some changes have been made to Royal Birkdale since 2017, including some re-routing and lengthening of some holes. Furthermore, reports from the ground during Open Championship practice rounds say the course is firm. It's going to be a terrific test of links golf. From a statistical perspective, though, we have to look at driving accuracy, approach play and specific aspects of the short game to tackle links golf. When we bake it all in, here's what our Open Championship picks look like for this week and the final major of the year.
Open Championship picks: Outright winner predictions
Matt Fitzpatrick +1850 (DraftKings)
This feels like setting myself up to get punched in the gut given that Matt Fitzpatrick has been a terrific fit only to fall short so many times already this year while still playing terrific golf. At the same time, I'm always going to fall back most heavily on the numbers that create the profile and fit, and Fitzy looks primed to have a phenomenal week at Royal Birkdale.
Over the last 24 rounds, Fitzpatrick is fifth in SG: Approach and third in SG: Around the Green. For good measure, he's also 12th in both Driving Accuracy and Bogey Avoidance. All of this tracks for a player who has been consistently near the top of leaderboards, but it's more intriguing when you consider that he's been trending a bit in The Open itself.
While six consecutive made cuts in the British Open matters entirely, it's also worth noting that Fitzpatrick is coming off of his best career finish at The Open Championship with a T4 at Royal Portrush last year. Different golf course, sure, but when you combine that with his form basically this entire season, it's hard to look away from him when he seems quite fairly priced.
Viktor Hovland +3300 (DraftKings)
It has to be done, plain and simple. Few golfers can be as frustrating as Viktor Hovland when you watch them, but that's mostly because his highs are so incredibly impressive and he seems to deviate from them too often. But for a guy who was Top 13 in his first three times playing at The Open Championship, there are a lot of signs that he could be in store to contend for his first career major win at Royal Birkdale.
Three of Hovland's last four starts have resulted in a solo third, a win at Travelers and a T13 at the Scottish Open last week. Sure, you'd have liked for the one tournament not mentioned to have been better than a missed cut at the U.S. Open, but Hovland's ball-striking continues to impress. He's 12th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and also quietly 11th in Driving Accuracy. But more compelling for Hovland is that he's actually been positive in SG: Around-the-Green and 17th in scrambling over that span.
The putter has been volatile, but this setup at Birkdale fits Hovland perfectly, even down to him being second and third in proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 yards out, respectively, which are the two key ranges this week. It could go spectacularly badly, but I'm willing to hitch my wagon to Hovland.
U.S. Open picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done
Rory McIlroy Top 5 incl. ties +150 (BetMGM)
Look, I understand that Rory McIlroy's approach numbers are middling and he completely booted a real chance to win the Scottish Open with a disastrous (and disjointed) third-round performance. However, Spieth tends to overshadow the fact that Rory still finished T4 the last time we were at Birkdale, and the simple fact that McIlroy might be working his way into some form (and that he's been awesome overall at The Open.
Rory has finished solo third, T6, missed cut, and T7 in his last four starts at the British Open. Furthermore, his big issue in the U.S. Open and Scottish Open, his last two starts, was losing strokes on approach. But he had his best approach round on Sunday at the Renaissance Club, and if that rounds into form, he has the rest of the game to be in the mix, especially if his power can attack some of the shorter holes at Birkdale.
Viktor Hovland Top 10 incl. ties +320 (BetMGM)
Doubling down on Viktor Hovland could yield some truly disastrous results, but I don't care, frankly. The ball-striking and form right now is trending so decisively in the right direction that I have a hard time believing that he's not going to perform well. Even if he doesn't hoist the Claret Jug at the end of the week, I still believe in him lurking around the top of the leaderboard throughout the week.
Tom Kim Top 20 incl. ties +188 (BetMGM)
Tom Kim proved that he truly does have some juice overseas with a win at the Scottish Open last week. And while it'd be a fun story for him to do the double and win The Open, that seems a bit more far-fetched. Having said that, it was also a continuation of his tremendous form over the past few weeks and even a couple of months, which means he should still be worth backing this week at Birkdale.
Over the last 24 rounds, he's third in SG: Approach and Top 40 in SG: Around-the-Green while being fifth in scrambling over that span as well. He's gained on approach in his last seven starts, but his best finishes have come when he can trust the putter — and he just so happens to have gained 2.49 strokes or more putting in three of his last four starts, including 3.65 last week. If that's the case, his ball-striking and accuracy off the tee are perfect for him to consistently mount scoring opportunities this week.
One and Done pick for The Open Championship: Viktor Hovland
Once again, we're back to Viktor Hovland. From a One and Done strategy perspective, I prefer to stick to my guns at major championships, even if there is some risk. There are only but so many purses and prize money pools as big as the one we'll see at The Open or one of the other three majors in the year. You have to be willing to ride with the big names, and my confidence in Hovland is fully undeterred, so he's the guy to roll with for any contest by my estimation.
Other options to consider for OAD: Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim
Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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