The U.S. Open remains the toughest, deepest and perhaps purest tournament in golf. And Shinnecock Hills is going to be an immaculate example of that this week. We remember the 2018 tournament here and the exceptionally difficult test that was asked of these players, which resulted in Brooks Koepka winning at 1-over par for the week. With wind in the forecast for the 2026 U.S. Open, scoring should be as difficult, and our picks will be just as difficult.
Deciding what to value at the U.S. Open is always difficult. Approach play will always be key, but the ability to scramble and more or less survive the conditions is just as crucial. Our U.S. Open picks will value it all as we try to identify the right players who are going to be able to withstand Shinnecock and make a strong bid to be crowned the next champion. Let's dive in, starting with our outright picks for the week, both of whom are past U.S. Open winners.
U.S. Open picks: Outright winner predictions
Rory McIlroy +1200 (FanDuel)
Looking at Rory McIlroy this week, there are two things that come to mind. The first is that there is some real value at 12-1 given the form that he's been in this season. Obviously, he captured his second consecutive win at the Masters, but he's also not finished worse than T19 in his three starts since then.
One of the biggest things I've seen from McIlroy, though, is his maturation as a grinder. You look back at his wins at Augusta, and he undeniably didn't make things easy on himself. The fact that he's progressed to be able to withstand that and still emerge victorious says quite a bit to me. When you combine that with his ability to club down off the tee and still be in good spots with improved approach play and a still-underrated short game, he's a sneaky fit for Shinnecock and I expect him to contend.
Matt Fitzpatrick +2150 (DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick was a popular pick for both the Masters and the PGA Championship this season. He obviously won neither of them, but did end up with a pair of Top 20 finishes to his credit. Overall, though, he's a three-time winner already on the PGA Tour this season, won a difficult U.S. Open at Brookline, and checks a ton of statistical boxes that you want to see for the week he's about to have at Shinnecock.
Over the last 24 rounds leading up to Shinnecock, Fitzpatrick is 23rd in SG: Approach, third in SG: Around the Green, sixth in Bogey Avoidance and, perhaps most importantly, first in Proximity from 200-225 yards out on approach. Those are all of the things that you're looking for this week, and his complete profile seems to indicate that he's position to take all of the punches that the course and conditions will land on the players this week and still be standing in the end.
U.S. Open picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 incl. ties +135 (FanDuel)
It's no secret that Scottie Scheffler simply hasn't been the buzzsaw that he was over the past couple of seasons on the PGA Tour. Of course, by his standards, that just means that he's not winning every event that he tees it up at. But the golf he's playing is still strong, and his greatest strength remains the fact that he's always going to play the smart shot. I don't think he has the gear right now to necessarily win the U.S. Open, even with survival bein more important than scoring. Having said that, it does feel like we have some value for a Top 5 finish.
Justin Thomas Top 10 incl. ties +350 (BetMGM)
We shouldn't underestimate the level of golf that Justin Thomas is currently playing. Not only did he come through with a T4 at the PGA Championship relatively quietly (albeit with the help of a blistering weekend), but he's also finished Top 20 in each of his last four starts as well. JT has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts while also gaining around the green in all five of those events. It's not been consistent necessarily, but given his ability to turn into a true microwave but also scramble around the greens, I like him to make some noise at Shinnecock, likely with some of the best rounds of the tournament brought down slightly by a round or two that keeps him from lifting the trophy.
Viktor Hovland Top 20 incl. ties +165 (FanDuel)
If nothing else, I'm going to ride for my guys when they show me signs. Viktor Hovland is undoubtedly one of my guys (even more so as I'm writing this on a train in his native Norway). Hovland is coming off of a solo third finish in Canada and has been trending up on approach, gaining over six strokes in that category in Toronto. As always, it's going to come down to the short game for him, but I can see him performing quite similarly to Thomas as he survives in a simply different manner than others in the field, scoring in bunches to offset some miscues created by the shortcomings in his game.
One and Done pick for the U.S. Open: Matt Fitzpatrick
It's all about Fitzy for me this week. His profile and pedigree just fit too well at Shinnecock for me to ignore it. He seems like the ideal candidate to be able to come out to this course and just eat the haymakers that a windy golf course like this will certainly deliver. Even if he doesn't win, the finish should ultimately be good enough to warrant a One and Done selection.
Other OAD Options to Consider: Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas
Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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