Who's going to win the British Open? Contenders and pretenders on The Open leaderboard

While the tumult surrounding Bryson DeChambeau at The Open Championship, specifically his two-shot penalty on Friday, may be the prevailing storyline from Royal Birkdale, there's still a tournament ongoing. More importantly, the golf has been absolutely phenomenal. We've seen three players shoot a record-tying 62, including Ryan Fox to surge up the leaderboard on Saturday, while the leaders have shuffled continuously. But now we're heading into the final stretch on Sunday with 18 holes to play as Sam Burns holds a two-stroke lead over the rest of the field.

Burns is looking for his first major championship victory, but it won't come easy. History says that the final round at the British Open will be chaotic and that no lead is safe. So let's take stock of the leaderboard, where Burns stands entering the final round, and then separate the Top 10 on the leaderboard into contenders and pretenders.

The Open Championship leaderboard entering the final round

Burns surged up the leaderboard on Friday and Saturday, posting one of the aformentioned record 62s in his second round, then following that up with a 65 to take the lead over Ryan Fox and Si Woo Kim. Meanwhile, the 36-hole leader, Lucas Herbert, fell off the pace a bit with a 1-over round on Saturday. That was also true of DeChambeau, who was at 5-under after the now-infamous penalty, and frankly held it together to shoot a 1-under 69 in his third round.

But this Top 10 on the leaderboard at the British Open feels quite important. Per Justin Ray of The Athletic, the last 25 winners at The Open Championship have been inside the Top 10 going into Sunday. And from the same note, the last 11 winners have been within four strokes of the lead. That last stat would eliminate Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson and hometown hero in Southport, Tommy Fleetwood. However, we'll still take a look at that pair as well.

Before we get into the other contenders, though, we have to start with Burns.

Someone is going to have to catch Sam Burns

Seemingly out of nowhere, Sam Burns has been one of the best major players in the world this season. He was the runner-up at the U.S. Open, but was also T7 at the Masters after being tied for the lead after the first round. And now here he is at Birkdale, seemingly ready to make another push for his maiden victory in a major championship.

And for what it's worth, everything that Burns has built toward this week looks sustainable from a statistical perspective. Yes, he putted the lights out of it on Friday to shoot 62 (gaining 2.99 strokes on the green alone), but he leads the field for the week in SG: Tee-to-Green at 3.26 and SG: Approach (2.09), while being a positive putter as well.

Having said that, the conditions at The Open are always wildly unpredictable. On top of that, it can't be overlooked that Burns has only been in one final group at a major in his career. That came last year at the U.S. Open when he was the 54-hole leader — and he proceeded to shoot a final-round 78 to finish T7.

That's not to say history will repeat itself, especially with how well he's played this week. Nor is it to say that his major-less career is uncommon, as only DeChambeau inside the Top 10 has a major victory on the résumé. But it is to say that there is some doubt — especially when, also from Justin Ray, only seven of the 19 players from the last 100 years who entered Sunday with a two-shot lead went on to win the tournament.

Luckily, there are some guys on the leaderboard who it doesn't seem like Burns is going to have to worry about.

The pretenders who are going to fade

Ryan Fox (T2 | -8)

All due respect to Ryan Fox and the 62 he shot on Saturday, which was a fun way to wake up, it feels very much like a flash in the pan. Fox gained an absurd 4.78 strokes putting and another 2.11 strokes off the tee on Saturday, but gained only 0.30 strokes on approach. He has been a better ball-striker than that, but his short game has also been far worse outside of the third round. There's a distinct lack of consistency round-to-round with how he's played this week, and considering that he's shot 72, 68 and then 62, I think the mean is likely closer to his first two rounds, which probably won't be enough to put him in a fight with Burns down the stretch.

Lucas Herbert (T4 | -7)

Obviously, Lucas Herbert became one of the stories of the tournament on Friday with his 62. However, when you unpack that, it actually makes it pretty clear that he's not going to be a real threat to win the British Open. He gained 3.32 strokes putting and 2.11 strokes around the green to get to that point. The fact that he then lost strokes tee-to-green after being just a marginal gainer there on Thursday tells me that's closer to his norm. And aside from another wild outlier in the putting department, that's not going to be good enough to chase down Burns.

Tommy Fleetwood (T9 | -5)

Unfortunately, I just don't see it for the hometown victory this week at Birkdale from Tommy Fleetwood. It'd be a tremendous story, but the fact that Fleetwood is outside the Top 30 in SG: Tee-to-Green for the week but ninth among players to make the cut in SG: Putting is worrisome. Statistically, putting is the least reliable metric to sustain for a victory, especially in a major championship. I don't think he's going to fade, and his history as a final-round demon does worry me slightly. But with five strokes to make up on the lead, I just don't think he's striking the ball well enough this week to make up that ground.

Contenders primed to challenge for the Claret Jug

Ryan Gerard (T4 | -7)

It felt like Ryan Gerard had absolutely nothing going on Saturday, and he still gained nearly 1.0 strokes on approach to shoot 1-under. He lost strokes on approach on Friday but, overall, has been incredibly consistent. In fact, Burns, Gerard and Åberg are the only three players in the Top 10 who are gaining strokes in every category through the first 54 holes of the tournament. I understand that he's not a fixture in contention for majors, which matters. At the same time, he's been playing so well all season and this week that it's hard for me to not say he's a real threat.

Ludvig Åberg (T6 | -6)

I'm a sucker for Ludvig Åberg's profile, so this shouldn't be a shock. He's seventh this week in SG: Tee-to-Green and has gained 0.42 strokes on the green as well. In all reality, if he hadn't lost 1.46 strokes putting in Round 1, there's a case to be made that he'd be T2 or maybe even tied with Burns atop the leaderboard coming into Sunday. But Åberg has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in every round. He's been steady as they come. As long as he avoids a senseless meltdown (which, to be fair, isn't out of the question), he should apply some pressure on Burns in a race for the Claret Jug.

Bryson DeChambeau (T6 | -6)

Quite frankly, it could've been a lot worse for DeChambeau on Saturday, particularly on the back nine. While I'm sure he'd love a do-over on the 18th hole, he's probably lucky to be just four strokes behind Burns. That being said, DeChambeau has played some pretty impressive golf in the midst of the chaos around him, ranking fourth in the field this week in SG: Tee-to-Green and sitting T6 despite being almost exactly 0.00 in SG: Putting for the week. If he can find anything with the flat stick and continue to hit it as well as he has, you could argue that no one has the firepower he's capable of unleashing in making a final-round charge.

The players left somewhere in-between

Si Woo Kim (T2 | -8)

Unequivocally, Si Woo Kim was the toughest player on the leaderboard for me to try and assess. On one hand, he's been doing exactly what he always needs to in order to contend. He's been a positive putter this week, which compliments his Top 10 tee-to-green play for the week. And really, much of his career success has come down plainly to if he can putt well or not. Having said that, expecting that to continue on Sunday is hard for me. Not only have we seen Si Woo melt down at times, but now he's in danger of that when he has just one Top 10 at a major in his career. That doesn't seem like a chaser that would scare me, but he's striking the ball so well, I have a hard time fully discrediting him.

Jackson Suber (T6 | -6)

Not only does Jackson Suber have next to nothing in the way of major experience, but his third round didn't inspire a ton of confidence. He held it together well enough to stay in the mix, which is to be commended. At the same time, however, he also found himself in a number of bad spots down the stretch. The numbers say the ball-striking has been good enough, but that's largely at odds with the eye test of what we saw on Saturday, which leaves him somewhere in the middle for me.

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (T9 | -5)

For Neergaard-Petersen, it's less about his level of performance and more about the situation. He's actually been quite stellar overall this week, anchored by his ball-striking, ranking fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green for the week. Instead, it simply comes down to his position on the leaderboard. Having to make up five shots on Sunday just to catch the 54-hole lead is daunting for anyone, but especially for a young player who doesn't even have a Top 10 finish at a major in his career.

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