The college basketball regular season starts in two weeks and the preseason AP Top 25 offers us a nice framework to start assessing the nation's best teams. The poll, which officially dropped on Monday afternoon, is in lockstep with FanSided's projections from late last week at the top, with the Top 8 teams appearing virtually identical minus the actual poll being a bit higher on Duke.
Beyond that, however, there were a few questionable calls by the voters, which tended to overstate the impact of transfer-heavy rosters and not put enough weight on continuity. With that in mind, let's take a look at what the voters got right and wrong in the first AP poll reaction of the season.
Preseason AP Top 25 College Basketball Rankings
1. Florida Gators
2. Duke Blue Devils
3. Illinois Fighting Illini
4. UConn Huskies
5. Arizona Wildcats
6. Michigan State Spartans
7. Texas Longhorns
8. Tennessee Volunteers
9. Virginia Cavaliers
10. Houston Cougars
11. Louisville Cardinals
12. Arkansas Razorbacks
13. St. John's Red Storm
14. Miami Hurricanes
15. Gonzaga Bulldogs
16. Michigan Wolverines
17. Kansas Jayhawks
18. Iowa State Cyclones
19. Texas Tech Red Raiders
20. Alabama Crimson Tide
21. USC Trojans
22. UCLA Bruins
23. Kentucky Wildcats
24. Vanderbilt Commodores
25. BYU Cougars
3 Teams ranked too high in the Preseason AP Top 25
No. 11 Louisville Cardinals
The star-studded transfer haul of Louisville, headlined by former Kansas big man Flory Bidunga, makes the Cardinals one of the most intriguing teams in the country on paper. Games aren't played on paper though and it makes Pat Kelsey's task of building chemistry with a collection of mis-matched transfer stars a tall order here.
There is a good chance that Louisville is built properly and Kelsey takes this group on a deep NCAA Tournament run by the time March runs around. We've seen transfer superteams blow up plenty in the past (just ask Mark Pope's $25 million Kentucky roster last year), so essentially declaring them a borderline Top 10 team without dribbling a basketball once is highly suspect.
No. 13 St. John's Red Storm
Like a few teams in this poll, there are a lot of questions dangling on potential court rulings. St. John's has had a few eligibility wins in recent days, with European point guard Quinn Ellis being granted full eligibility by the NCAA, but key players like Keyshawn Hall and Babacar Sane are available on the backs of court orders that could vanish at any given moment.
There is also a lot of turnover for the Red Storm and we saw them struggle through non-conference play last year as Rick Pitino worked to find the right rotations for his roster. The talent on paper for St. John's is massive but the No. 13 spot feels a tad aggressive given some of their uncertainty.
No. 21 USC Trojans
This is the one team that the FanSided projections disagreed with the voters on as we had the Trojans unranked. Eric Musselman did add some impact transfers in the portal this summer, including Georgetown guard KJ Lewis, but the holdovers from his roster underachieved to the tune of an 18-14 record that included a second-round Big Ten Tournament loss to Washington.
Expecting this group to flirt with the Top 25 seems a bit optimistic as it is betting more on the collection of talent than any proof of concept with continuity. Don't be surprised if things start slowly again for USC, which saw some negative offseason headlines as former forward Chad Baker-Mazara accused Musselman of having racially motivated reasons for dismissing him from the team in February in a lawsuit.
3 teams ranked too low in the Preseason AP Top 25
No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks
It's hard to blame the voters on this one as their ballots were cast before news emerged on Monday that Kansas received a commitment from former Purdue star Trey Kaufman-Renn in a significant boost to their front court. Kaufman-Renn is technically eligible thanks to a lawsuit trying to grandfather him into the NCAA's new 5-in-5 ruling, arguing that he would not have used a redshirt year earlier in his career with the Boilermakers if he knew a fifth season was a legitimate possibility.
A lot rides on Kaufman-Renn's ability to stay eligible but if he is able to take the floor this Jayhawks' team has legitimate Top 10 upside. Pairing a veteran like Kaufman-Renn with other recent imports, like fellow court-eligible returnees Melvin Council Jr and Tre White as well as star freshman Tyran Stokes, could allow the Jayhawks to push Arizona and Houston atop the Big 12.
No. 16 Michigan Wolverines
This is a case where the voters had quite the conundrum with the defending national champs, who lost all of their big men to the pros and saw Dusty May bolt for the NBA in June. Lead assistant Mike Boynton got a two-year deal to prove he can lead the program, which should maintain some continuity, but the loss of five-star freshman Brandon McCoy to a season-ending injury in August undoubtedly spooked pollsters.
Even if Boynton is auditioning for the job right now, he still brings back significant talent in the form of Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney alongside impact transfers like J.P. Estrella and Mostapha Thiam. If Rodney Gayle remains eligible, which is an open question, Michigan belongs right behind Illinois and Michigan State in the Big Ten's hierarchy.
No. 14 Miami Hurricanes
We had the Hurricanes as a Top 10 team in our projections but the pollsters have Miami at No. 14, rating them as the ACC's fourth-best team behind Duke, Virginia and Louisville. The Hurricanes return several key starters from last year's tournament team and added an impact transfer in former Villanova guard Acaden Lewis, who should add some playmaking along with defensive chops in the backcourt.
The big holdup for Miami appears to concern availability questions for Malik Renneau, who averaged 18.9 points per game last season and is trying to get grandfathered into the 5-in-5 rules via court proceedings. If Renneau is eligible, the Hurricanes are a Top 10 team with legitimate potential as a Final Four sleeper.
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