Major League Baseball’s regular season ends in exactly one month, and players on expiring contracts have one last chance to make an impression before they can file for free agency. With that in mind, here is what the top 10 free agents must prove this month, and why the stakes are so high.
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
- September stakes: Skubal can prove he’s still baseball’s unquestioned free-agent prize
- Free-agent contract prediction: Eight years, $375 million
Skubal is going to be the prize of free agency this upcoming offseason, and nothing short of a catastrophic injury can change that. After all, he won the American League Cy Young Award each of the past two seasons while pitching for the Detroit Tigers.
Skubal hasn’t been as sharp as usual since being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers two days before the trade deadline, going 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in four starts for the two-time defending World Series champions. It will be interesting to see how Skubal handles the emotions of returning to Detroit when he pitches on Friday night against the Tigers.
2. Michael King, RHP, San Diego Padres
- September stakes: King has to prove he can pitch like an ace when it matters most
- Free-agent contract prediction: Four years, $120 million
King will be a nice consolation prize for any team unable to sign Skubal. King has moved into the role of No. 1 starter this season and has an 8-9 record and 3.23 RRA in 27 outings.
However, King will face a different kind of pressure this September as the ace of a contender, as the Padres have a 1.5-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third and final NL wild card. King will need to show he can handle that pressure.
King holds player options for $28 million in 2027 and $30 million, but is expected to decline in favor of free agency.
3. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, New York Yankees
- September stakes: Chisholm Jr. can erase the biggest concern about his free-agent case
- Free-agent contract prediction: Five years, $125 million
Chisholm is the most dynamic position player headed to the open market. Even in an average season hitting-wise, Chisholm has flashed his power/speed combination for the AL wild card-leading Yankees, with 18 home runs and 36 stolen bases.
Batting average isn’t so important in the modern baseball era. However, Chisholm would increase his value by improving his .227/.307/.404 slash line over 124 games.404 slash line through 124 games.
4. Randy Arozarena, LF, Seattle Mariners
- September stakes: Arozarena has one more chance to carry Seattle somewhere
- Free-agent contract prediction: Four years, $100 million
The Mariners, with a 64-70 record, have had a disappointing year after missing out on the first World Series berth in franchise history by one game. However, Arozarena can’t be blamed for the struggles as he is hitting .272/.369/.460 with 20 homers and 20 steals in 126 games.
It is hard to imagine Arozarena’s stock dipping this far into the season. The Mariners trail the first-place Houston Astros by three games in the AL West, but Arozarena would add value by rallying his team to the division title.
5. Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
- September stakes: Lowe needs to make his defensive breakout stick
- Free-agent contract prediction: Three years, $60 million
Lowe has set himself up for a potentially big payday during his first season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He leads the team with 27 home runs and 80 RBIs in 125 games while slashing .249/.316/.470.
Left-handed middle infielders are valuable, but the knock on Lowe has long been his defense. However, Lowe has 10 defensive runs saved, and if he can keep playing good second base, his value will stay high.
6. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
- September stakes: Peralta desperately needs to rebuild his value
- Free-agent contract prediction: Five years, $125 million
Peralta’s stock crashed this year in a woeful first season with the New York Mets, who acquired him from the Milwaukee Brewers in an offseason trade. He went 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts before being shipped to the Tampa Bay Rays at the deadline.
Peralta is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in five starts for the Rays, but his last outing was encouraging as he pitched six shutout innings to beat the Tigers. Peralta needs to keep pitching well to help the AL East-leading Rays win the division and restore his reputation as an ace.
7. Casey Mize, RHP, San Diego Padres
- September stakes: Mize has to prove he can stay healthy and effective
- Free-agent contract prediction: Four years, $80 million
The Padres acquired Mize at the trade deadline to bolster their pennant hopes, but he is just 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA in four starts. Even worse, Mize sprained his right ankle in his previous start.
Mize did not need to be placed on the injured list, though, and is scheduled to start on Friday night against the Rays. He should have a robust market in the offseason but would increase his value by pitching well down the stretch and staying healthy.
8. Seiya Suzuki, RF/DH, Chicago Cubs
- September stakes: Suzuki can prove he’s more than a bat
- Free-agent contract prediction: Four years, $100 million
Suzuki is quietly having another fine season for the Cubs, who lead the NL wild card standings. In 116 games, he is hitting .270/.364/.478 with 22 home runs.
Suzuki has been a reliable run producer in his five seasons with the Cubs since coming to the big leagues from Japan’s NPB. Fielding has always been the biggest concern with Suzuki, but he has 10 DRS this season, and continuing that will add more value than being a designated hitter.
9. Clay Holmes, RHP, Chicago Cubs
- September stakes: Holmes just needs to keep doing exactly this
- Free-agent contract prediction: Three years, $60 million
The Cubs acquired Holmes at the trade deadline to bolster an injury-ravaged rotation, even though he had not pitched for the Mets since May 15 because of a fractured fibula in his right leg.
Holmes has been outstanding in four starts with a 1.96 ERA, which belies his 1-2 record. All Holmes needs to do is stay healthy to ensure he has plenty of suitors in the winter months.
10. Luis Arraez, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
- September stakes: Arraez has nothing left to prove except that he can keep hitting
- Free-agent contract prediction: Four years, $70 million
Arraez is yet another player moved at the deadline as the Phillies, who hold the second NL wild card, acquired him from the San Francisco Giants. Arraez is hitting .291/.303/.419 with two home runs in 21 games with his new team.
Arraez is in line to win his fourth batting title in five seasons as his overall slash line is .318/.351/.437 with six home runs in 126 games. All the modern-day Tony Gwynn needs to do in the season’s last month is keep on hitting.
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