Sure, the AL West might be literally the worst division in baseball history. But somebody has to win the thing when all is said and done, and the strictures of MLB's playoff format dictate that whoever does will earn a spot in the bracket just like everyone else.
The Houston Astros enter the final day of the regular season on Sunday hoping that someone will be them. And while Houston hasn't exactly been playing the most inspiring ball of late, it would be hard to bet against them considering how the standings shape up at the moment. Here's everything to know about the Astros' magic number situation entering Game 162, how they can clinch a playoff berth and why they shouldn't be counted out prematurely if they do make it to October.
Astros magic number: It's win-and-in time for Houston
The situation could not be simpler for the Astros on Sunday. They start the day even with the Texas Rangers at 80-81. But because Houston won the season series, Joe Espada's team holds the head-to-head tiebreaker and would clinch the AL West if the two in-state rivals finish with identical records.
All of which means that Houston's magic number sits at just one. Either an Astros win at the A's in Sacramento, or a Rangers loss against the Twins in Minneapolis, will hand the division to Houston.
Texas will send MacKenzie Gore to the mound against a Twins team that, while long since eliminated, still has more than enough talent to play spoiler (even if Minnesota's starter on Sunday, Dean Kremer, hardly inspires confidence). The Astros will give the ball to Peter Lambert in Sacramento; the A's, on the other hand, are using reliever Seth Johnson as an opener. Translation: Advantage Houston.
MLB playoff picture: Astros would have favorable path through the AL
Crazy things can happen at this time of year, but you'd have to think that the odds of Houston taking care of business against the lowly A's are pretty high. And if the Astros do wind up as division champs, they'd suddenly find themselves in a very comfortable spot in the wide-open AL bracket.
Houston would earn the No. 3 seed and host the No. 6 seed White Sox in a three-game Wild Card series at Daikin Park beginning on Tuesday. Chicago has some offensive firepower, but their rotation is full of question marks, and this is a very young team with very little postseason experience. Plus, the Astros took five of seven games from the South Siders this season.
Get throughout that series, and the Astros would then advance to face the No. 2 seed Cleveland Guardians — a far friendlier matchup than the other side of the bracket, which features the three best teams in the AL in the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. This is putting the cart before the horse a bit, but if Houston makes it to October, a run to the ALCS would suddenly feel very much on the table.
Astros projected playoff rotation, lineup if Houston clinches
The Astros feel much more set in terms of their playoff roster than a lot of teams around the league. Houston's lineup has remained stable for much of this season, Carlos Correa injury notwithstanding, and would enter the postseason in much the same way.
Astros projected postseason lineup
Position | Player |
|---|---|
SS | Jeremy Peña |
DH | Yordan Alvarez |
3B | Isaac Paredes |
2B | Jose Altuve |
C | Yainer Diaz |
1B | Christian Walker |
CF | Lucas Spence |
RF | Cam Smith |
LF | Taylor Trammell |
The top three of Peña, Alvarez and Paredes is awfully fearsome, especially with how well the latter's been swinging the bat of late. Diaz and Walker provide valuable depth, while we give Spence the nod in center field based on how well he's stepped in for the injured Daulton Varsho. Heck, even if Varsho is healthy for the Wild Card Round, Houston might just prefer Spence against righties anyway.
Astros projected postseason rotation
The rotation, admittedly, gets a bit trickier. It's been a sore spot for the Astros all year long, and would rank among the worst in the playoff field. But there's some reason for optimism, at least in a three-game Wild Card series.
Game | Starter |
|---|---|
Game 1 | Hunter Brown |
Game 2 | Hayden Wesneski |
Game 3 | Peter Lambert |
Hunter Brown is the obvious choice to take the ball in Game 1, even if he'd be on short rest after throwing 5.2 innings on Friday. Wesneski and Lambert would be on short rest as well, but there simply aren't many other reliable options for Espada to turn to. This is the problem with not handling your business with some schedule left to spare; it leaves you scrambling with a quick turnaround to Game 1 on Tuesday.
Add us as a preferred source on Google