Blue Jays fans need to cut Vladimir Guerrero Jr. some slack

The Toronto Blue Jays (68-71) continue to tread water on the outskirts of the American League postseason race, currently 2.5 games behind Cleveland (70-68) for the sixth seed and final Wild Card spot. There is still a month left to go, and Toronto has the benefit of an easy closing schedule. For what it's worth, confidence remains high (well, high enough) in the clubhouse.

"The goal is to be playing in meaningful games in September, regardless of how you get here,” Blue Jays slugger George Springer told FanSided. “Everybody would love to be 15 games up and have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen. But at the end of the day, all you want is a chance, and this team still has one. So, we’ll keep going."

Several factors will determine whether or not Toronto can get over the hump in September, but all eyes are on one player: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays fans need to let Vladimir Guerrero Jr. feel the love

In the sixth inning of last week's 13-2 loss to the Royals — with Toronto already facing a 10-0 deficit — Guerrero hit an inning-ending groundout. He jogged to first base, then back to the dugout. The hometown fans in Toronto did not hold back, with loud boos filling the Rogers Centre.

This is not an article calling for fans to hold an arbitrary standing ovation for Guerrero Jr. at the start of their next game, like the Phillies did once upon a time for Trea Turner. And, as a Philadelphia sports fan, I'll confess myself personally in favor, broadly, of hometown fans letting hometown players hear it when their production (and especially their effort) is not up to snuff.

It's also worth noting that such displays of in-house hostility are not unique to Philly (obviously), nor to Guerrero Jr., as Blue Jays legend Dave Stieb told the Toronto Star.

"Oh yeah, I got booed," he said. "When I had my worst year in ’86 I was booed, but I came back decently in ’87 and I shut ’em all up."

Therein lies the path for Vladdy, who's under contract for another 13 years after this one (gulp). The talented first baseman is still just 27 years of age, less than 12 months removed from the most memorable individual postseason run in recent memory. It's not like he cannot or will not rebound from this.

While the boos are understandable, even justified, it is worth remembering that postseason run. It's worth remembering, too, that Guerrero Jr. inked a massive long-term extension when he very easily could have waited until free agency and perhaps found an even better deal elsewhere. He still has to back up Toronto's $500 million investment on the field, of course, but Guerrero Jr. has years of elite production to his name. If anyone in the Toronto clubhouse has proven his dedication to the organization and his talent on the field, it's him.

So, while fans should hold Guerrero Jr. accountable and hopefully light a fire under him, it's probably worth giving him a bit of grace, too. This has been a frustrating season on many levels and emotions are understandably tense, but Guerrero Jr. still has a month left to deliver Toronto to the playoffs — not to mention another decade to pad his Hall of Fame case.

The underlying metrics point to imminent improvement

It's not like Guerrero Jr. is suddenly unplayable either. Yes, he is struggling relative to his extraordinarily high standards, but Guerrero's 0.6 fWAR, or wins above replacement, means he is still better than a replacement-level first baseman. Moreover, for the baseball nerds out there, Guerrero Jr.'s analytics paint a fairly optimistic portrait.

He's producing far below his expected average (.281) and slugging percentage (.395) with .258/.330/.368 splits on the year. Calling it "bad luck" is an oversimplification, but Guerrero Jr. is due for a few hard-hit ground balls and line drives that don't find a glove. He's elite in the contact department, only striking out in 12.6 percent of at-bats. That places in MLB's 93rd percentile among qualified hitters.

The issue for Guerrero this season boils down to swing decisions and launch angle. He's just not barreling hits up in the zone like he has in years past, not all that dissimilar to Cal Raleigh's months-long slump in Seattle. Raleigh has eight home runs in his last 15 games, with a monster 1.269 OPS in that span. And Raleigh has always been more prone to strikeouts, and thus far more volatile than Guerrero Jr.

It's not a one-for-one comparison, and Guerrero Jr. probably won't become the single most dangerous force in baseball overnight. He is, however, a notoriously hard worker with a unique gift for hammering pitches both high and low, inside and out. Vladdy will eventually make the right adjustments; he will start laying off bad pitches in the dirt and elevating more hits. He already makes hard contact on a regular basis, with an average exit velocity over 90 MPH. If Guerrero Jr. starts maximizing the outcomes of those hard-hit balls, being a tad more selective and turning grounders into fly balls, watch out.

Again, it's very easy to sympathize with the frustration of Blue Jays fans. But Guerrero Jr. is a sleeping giant. He has not lost what makes him special. He needs only to rediscover the patience that made him so dangerous last season, when Toronto's lineup was a thorn in the side of damn near every pitcher. Patience is a virtue, as much for fans as it is for players.

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