Buy or sell? What MLB standings say about 5 MLB trade deadline bubble teams

Buy or sell? A question as old as human civilization itself; do I buy these lima beans from my neighbor or do I sell my salted meats to that guy across the street? Is my signed piece of printer paper from Caroline Wozniacki worth more to me or to some Danish tennis superfan? Do I want to expand my collection of red and blue Hot Wheels sets by engaging with this sketchy eBay listing or do I cut bait and have a yard sale?

These are very relatable questions I’m sure, and ones MLB teams probably think about when figuring their way through the trade deadline each year. But philosophical concepts about what is and is not worth more to you than it is to someone else often break at the cold reality of the standings: Do you have a chance to make the playoffs this year? No? Well, then get ready to trade some players!

We often aggressively overreact to the week before the trade deadline, so I’m going to aggressively overreact to the week before the week before the trade deadline to set us a baseline. And because I spent five entire minutes coming up with the analogies for the intro, I came up with one for each team’s season too, because we have fun over here.

First, here are the standings as of Sunday, July 26:

Baltimore Orioles

• Analogy that explains the season: The most neutral, uninteresting craft IPA ever, so much so that you’re wondering if it’s just a light beer in a different can
• Verdict: BUY (or just … don’t sell)

We’re starting off HOT with a zag against the way most people would probably take this one. The Orioles have had the middest season of all time: They have a completely bland -13 run differential, have done absolutely nothing impressive in any one aspect of the game and have kinda just meandered their way to being in the American League Wild Card Quagmire (ALWCQ, patent pending). But I don’t think this is really a panic and trade Adley Rutschman situation, and the Orioles are not that far out from squeaking out a playoff spot. It’s a long shot, but not that long, and I’d hate to see them abandon their quality roster because of a weird year — especially as they've gotten hot of late.

Minnesota Twins

• Analogy that explains the season: You don’t want to finish cleaning out your great aunt’s storage unit but you know it isn’t going to clean itself
• Verdict: SELL

Please do not delude yourself into thinking the Twins, only a hop-skip-and-a-jump away from a Wild Card spot, have the core of a playoff team. They do not. They have drastically overperformed their run differential and have valuable pieces on the wrong timelines. They began a full rebuild last year, and it’s time to finish the job. Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan, heck — even take some calls on Byron Buxton. Just get it over with.

Houston Astros 

• Analogy that explains the season: When you’re pretty sure you hate your job but then you find out you have a decent shot at a promotion
• Verdict: BUY

Please DO delude yourself into thinking the Astros have the core of a playoff team … for no other reason than the AL West is a disgrace to mankind and nobody wants to win it. The Seattle Mariners tailspin has left the door wide open for the Astros, who ripped off a major win streak right after I declared they were cooked enough to trade Jeremy Peña, who I’m not convinced they can keep ahead of his free agency next winter. But deal with that after the season, because this team has a chance right now.

Detroit Tigers

• Analogy that explains the season: Deciding if you should break up with your boyfriend you’re pretty sure likes your friend Samantha better but you had such a great few years together so it’s hard
• Verdict: SELL

There are many reports about what the Detroit Tigers may or may not do with Tarik Skubal, but I am here to tell you what they should do: Trade the man. Spend the next week pretending you won't to drive up whatever offer you think you can squeeze out of … whoever, and then do it. This is one of those franchise-defining moments that you don’t get a do-over on. It hurts like hell to trade your best player, but do you think the Los Angeles Angels are thrilled they didn’t trade Ohtani? Do you think the Washington Nationals regret trading Juan Soto for CJ Abrams and James Wood? Great players walk for more money. Get ahead of the curve.

St. Louis Cardinals 

• Analogy that explains the season: When the pre-owned car you bought ran great for the first few thousand miles but it turns out the engine isn’t as fresh as you thought
• Verdict: SELL

Man, it was fun while it lasted, but the St. Louis Cardinals have unfortunately fallen squarely back to earth after a long, slow averaging out of their dramatically overblown April. Dustin May, Riley O’Brien and Lars Nootbaar all seem like solid choices to trade, and even though they are above .500, their division does not allow for mediocrity. Even if this team is average, they need to move things around to make it better than that. 

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