The Seattle Mariners entered the 2026 campaign as solidified World Series contenders, but even after winning back-to-back series against the Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies, they're 64-70 on the year and on the outside looking in when looking at the AL postseason picture.
In most years, a team that's six games under .500 in the last week of August would be considered an afterthought with little to no chance of making the playoffs. That isn't the case with the Mariners, though, who despite their rough season thus far, are still very much alive in the postseason race.
Where the Mariners sit in the AL Playoff picture
AL West standings
Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
Houston Astros | 66-67 | - |
Texas Rangers | 66-68 | 0.5 |
Seattle Mariners | 64-70 | 2.5 |
Athletics | 53-81 | 13.5 |
Los Angeles Angels | 52-82 | 14.5 |
As you can see, despite all that's gone wrong, the Mariners are still very much in the thick of the AL West race, as they're just 2.5 games behind the first-place Houston Astros. They shouldn't be seen as favorites or anything, but with another month to play, a 2.5-game gap is far from season-ending.
AL Wild Card standings
Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
New York Yankees | 75-57 | +8.0 |
Boston Red Sox | 73-60 | +5.5 |
Cleveland Guardians | 68-66 | - |
Texas Rangers | 66-68 | 2.0 |
Baltimore Orioles | 65-68 | 2.5 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 65-69 | 3.0 |
Seattle Mariners | 64-70 | 4.0 |
Minnesota Twins | 64-70 | 4.0 |
Detroit Tigers | 62-71 | 5.5 |
Even if the Mariners are unable to overtake Houston in the AL West, they're still alive in the Wild Card race. This path is admittedly much tougher, as not only do the Mariners face a larger deficit, but they'd also need to jump four teams in front of them. Still, a 4.0-game deficit isn't the end of the world with a month to go, especially with how lackluster the American League is.
Overall, the Mariners are given 41.5 percent odds to make the playoffs by FanGraphs, good for seventh in the American League. That isn't great when considering only six teams make the playoffs, but the team they're chasing, the Astros, are only given 44.9 percent odds of making the playoffs. In other words, the Mariners are right there and can absolutely still make it to October. Here's what's working in their favor.
Why the Mariners can still make the MLB Playoffs
Cal Raleigh is starting to look like MVP Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh has perhaps been the most disappointing player in the majors. Fresh off his MVP runner-up campaign in 2025, Raleigh enters Thursday's action slashing .167/.284/.342 with 18 home runs. His 85 wRC+ is good for 141st out of 154 position players with at least 400 plate appearances this season. As bad as that all looks, he's started to look more like his MVP-caliber self of late.
Raleigh drilled three home runs (two against Zack Wheeler) on Monday, and homered again on Tuesday. He now has six home runs and an OPS over 1.400 in his last 10 games. All of a sudden, he looks like a hitter poised to crush mistake pitches and pull the ball in the air with authority as he did in all of 2025. Adding an MVP-caliber bat to this lineup would obviously help the Mariners' cause.
Mariners' September schedule is ridiculously easy
The Mariners had one of MLB's toughest schedules in August, and while things weren't always pretty, they've gone 11-12 this month, which, while not great, isn't horrific considering the competition they've had to face. In September, though, things will take a turn, as the Mariners have MLB's easiest remaining schedule per Tankathon.
Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .437, which is a little worse than the 59-75 Kansas City Royals. They have a total of one remaining series against a team with a winning record. They have a combined five series against the Angels, Rockies and Athletics, the three worst teams in the sport record-wise. Beating up on subpar competition might not be an option in October, but it sure can help the Mariners get there.
Mariners aren't the only AL team underachieving
As mentioned above, the American League is laughably bad. I mean, no disrespect to the Astros, but they're leading the AL West despite having a losing record. The Cleveland Guardians are a Wild Card team despite being only two games over .500. Tons of teams are in postseason contention, but how many of them are actually good?
The Mariners may only need to be a .500 team or maybe a game or two over the .500 mark to make the playoffs, whether it's by winning the AL West or stealing the third Wild Card spot. They'll need to play very well in September, obviously, but their soft schedule paired with the rest of the league's inability to string wins together keeps the door wide open for Seattle to push through.
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