The San Diego Padres went from a fringe postseason hopeful to the top NL Wild Card team in the span of a month, finishing out September with a flourish. San Diego will now host the No. 5 seed Chicago Cubs in a three-game Wild Card series, a rematch of last year's 4-5 matchup. Chicago won that series 2-1 in their home ballpark; now, it's the Padres with rowdy fans at their back.
Both these teams are capable of explosive offensive performances and similarly limited by inconsistent pitching. This is a fun chess match, with significant pressure on both teams. The winner will advance to face No. 1 seed Milwaukee in the NLDS.
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Wild Card schedule and where to watch
Game | Time | Where to watch |
|---|---|---|
Cubs @ Padres | Tuesday, Sept. 29 at 10 p.m. ET | Peacock/NBCSN |
Cubs @ Padres | Wednesday, Sept. 30 at 10 p.m. ET | Peacock/NBCSN |
Cubs @ Padres (if necessary) | Thursday, Oct. 1 at 10 p.m. ET | Peacock/NBCSN |
San Diego will host all three games (if necessary) at Petco Park, where the Padres were 51-30 on the year. Chicago, by contrast, went 43-38 on the road
This will be the only Wild Card series on the West Coast, in the Pacific time zone, meaning these will be the late games next week at 10 p.m. ET and 7 p.m. local time. The games can be streamed on Peacock and watched on NBC Sports.
Key players who will decide the Cubs vs. Padres series
LHP Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs
With Shōta Imanaga pitching in Sunday's regular season finale, Matthew Boyd is slated for one of three potential Cubs starts in the Wild Card round. Boyd is a steady innings-eater, with a 3.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season, but he's also maddeningly volatile. Boyd's fastball has a .514 xSLG (expected slugging) and he cedes far too many hard-hit fly balls when his command falters. Chicago's rotation has been a rollar coaster ride all season, and Boyd — despite his All-Star pedigree — is no surefire ace.
3B Manny Machado | San Diego Padres
Manny Machado has been a mess at the plate all season, and it wasn't much better in September. He put up a .700 OPS, hitting .193, in the final month. While Machado can still jack up the power, the 34-year-old is clearly on the downswing of his career. Machado's most recent postseason track record does not inspire much confidence either. He's paid like a star, and the Padres need him to look the part, especially with such a deep Cubs lineup on the other side.
RHP Daniel Palencia (and the entire Cubs bullpen)
Chicago's rotation is a mess, but somehow the bullpen is even more of a mess. Daniel Palencia emerged as a shutdown closer in 2025, but he has struggled to recapture that success in 2026. The Cubs have instead gone to a closer-by-committee setup, focusing on matchups and attempting to ride the hot hand. San Diego's one advantage in this series in their elite bullpen. The Cubs may struggle to protect early leads.
C Ethan Salas | San Diego Padres
We shall see if the Padres trust Ethan Salas enough to start him over a more seasoned Luis Campusano, but San Diego should utilize their top prospect in some capacity regardless. Salas was red-hot in the Minors all season and he has carried that momentum into the Majors, with elite glovework behind home plate to boot. So often we've seen late-season promotions turn the tide of a playoff series. Salas has the talent to come up large when San Diego has need of his bat.
Cubs vs. Padres expert picks and Wild Card predictions
Bold predictions for the Cubs-Padres NL Wild Card series
- Both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong will have multi-home run games.
Tatis and PCA are two of our game's greatest showmen, and both are sprinting through the finish line. Tatis started the season with an anomalous home run drought, but he has since cranked up his power slider. PCA, now officially a member of the 40-40 club, put the NL MVP race to bed down the stretch with clutch homer after clutch homer.
- Ryan Zeferjahn has his coming out party
There are valid concerns about Chicago's bullpen, but Ryan Zeferjahn is a monster talent with upper-90s velocity and a .195 opponent batting average this season. His 31 percent strikeout rate puts him near the top of the MLB leaderboard. The only thing holding back Zeferjahn is command; he gives up a lot of walks, which can go horribly wrong in the playoffs. That said, if Zeferjahn locks in, he is Chicago's best reliever — and he could come through with several huge outs in San Diego.
Who wins the NL Wild Card series: Cubs or Padres?
Chicago's pitching staff is a disaster and it will almost certainly bite them further down the road, but San Diego's lineup can run cold at inopportune times. Moreover, the Padres aren't without their own pitching woes. The bullpen is a superpower, but projected Game 1 starter Michael King has far outperformed his metrics all season and could be due for ill-timed regression. Nick Pivetta can shove, but he gives up hard-hit fly balls more than you'd like. Walker Buehler as a postseason starter screams disaster.
So expect a shootout. And if it's a shootout, this Cubs lineup — arguably the best in MLB, besides the reigning champs from L.A. — is impossible to bet against. Chicago's flaws are more glaring, but San Diego simply has a lower offensive ceiling. And while the bullpen is great, it won't matter much if their starters can't scrape together at least five or six quality innings.
Series prediction: Cubs win 2-1 (again)
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