Grading the preseason AL and NL MVP favorites through early June

One month into a long MLB season is still much too early to predict the end-of-season awards with any certainty. We can, however, look at recent trends and lean on past wisdom to at least capture the essence of the MVP race in both the AL and NL. Which of the preseason favorites are making moves in the right direction, and which are sinking like a stone?

All odds in this piece are from BetMGM

American League

Aaron Judge

• Preseason Odds: +300
• Current Odds: +105
• Grade: B+

What, am I going to sit here and tell you that Aaron Judge has been bad? No, but with some moderate injury concerns coming out of Yankees land, it’s worth noting that rather than being the hitter in the universe Judge has simply been among the best hitters in the universe this year. And perhaps owing to that injury, his contact quality has been declining for a while now.

He’s still on pace for a ridiculous number of home runs if this injury turns out to be nothing much to worry about, but we’re not currently getting the 1.100+ OPS monster we’ve gotten almost every year since 2022. But Judge doesn’t have to be that to win AL MVP; he just has to be somewhat that. He could certainly still manage that, which is why he remains the favorite.

Bobby Witt Jr.

• Preseason Odds: +300
• Current Odds: +280
• Grade: A

What does poor Bobby Witt Jr. have to do to win an MVP? On pace for almost 10 WAR this season, Witt Jr. looks every bit the guy he was in 2025 — though he is lagging behind his ridiculous contact hitting numbers from 2024. We always talk about the five tools, but with Witt Jr. you get literally everything you want: He’s more than capable of hitting 30 home runs, will hit around .300, will steal 30 bases (he’s on pace to nab over 50 right now) and is plain-and-simple the best defensive shortstop in baseball. If he isn’t the most valuable player in the American League, he’s at least the most complete.

Gunnar Henderson

• Preseason Odds: +800
• Current Odds: +10000
• Grade: D

Our second turbo-hyped shortstop prospect, and the opposite result (at least so far). You could argue this grade should be worse, but after 2024 — a season which made Gunnar Henderson look like the next best thing — there have been some deeply perplexing changes to his hitting approach and his production has plummeted.

Injuries in 2025 derailed the hype train, but his swing speed has decreased even further in a nominally healthy 2026. His power has disappeared in May and June after hitting eight home runs in April. And this new pull-air approach seems to have completely fried his effectiveness in the batter's box, torpedoing his walk rate and spiking his strikeout numbers. It just feels like Henderson is broken.

National League

Shohei Ohtani

• Preseason Odds: +150 (!)
• Current Odds: -800
• Grade: A

Can we just discuss that +150 number for a second? For as long as we are legally permitted to consider both pitching and hitting stats for the MVP award, Ohtani just has to be pretty good at both to basically be a shoo-in for MVP. Of course, he’s been better than good on the mound this season and has seriously picked up the pace as a hitter after a slow start. He is a great pitcher and a great hitter, of course he’s going to win the MVP. Those -800 odds now seem not even severe enough, but plus odds in the preseason? +150?! Guys.

Juan Soto

• Preseason Odds: +600
• Current Odds: +2800
• Grade: A-

This is a strong A-. Soto has been really good this year, even though I don’t actually know what he would have to do to win an MVP over a healthy Ohtani. The odds dropping so hard from the preseason is just a reflection of Ohtani’s play, not Soto’s, who would probably have to hit 60 home runs, put up a 1.100 OPS and have some absurd all-time statistical outlier (like his 2020 and 2021 on-base percentages being over .460) to take home the trophy. Soto is a beast, we all know this, he’s one of the most talented hitters ever. He’s just in the NL with one of the most talented human beings ever. It’s tough out here. 

Fernando Tatis Jr.

• Preseason Odds: +850
• Current Odds: +15000
• Grade: F+

We’re doing F+ instead of F because I do not think Tatis Jr. has been as bad as his traditional counting stats suggest he has been. If nothing else, he’s still an excellent defensive outfielder. But he also didn’t hit a home run for the first two months of the season; this isn’t Connor Wong we’re talking about here, this is Fernando Tatis Jr., who is supposed to be in the top five percent of all hitters in power categories every year. In 2026, he’s not; the average exit velocity is way down, and while the San Diego Padres have had a fine season, Tatis has not. Putting him at 150-1 seems like the right odds given he is on pace to hit three home runs (and until May 30, he was on pace to hit zero). 

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