Last season, the Cleveland Guardians overcame historic odds to steal the AL Central crown from Detroit. Now, the Guardians are on the precipice of stealing another division crown out from under the long-time frontrunners, passing the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday with a 6-3 victory.
Cleveland (78-75) now holds a narrow half-game lead over the South Siders (77-75) with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season. There's still baseball left to be played, but the Guardians are hotter and, critically, much more experienced than the upstart White Sox. Here's how the Guards can clinch the division — and with it, a potential first-round bye in the postseason.
What is the Guardians magic number to make the playoffs?
Per MLB.com, the following equation determines magic number: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team). For Cleveland, that comes out to: 9 + 1 - (76-75) = 9. Basically, the Guardians need nine combined wins or Texas Rangers losses to guarantee a spot in the postseason, regardless of what happens in the division race. Texas is currently the seventh-place team in the AL standings, making them the first team out of the playoffs.
What is the Guardians magic number to win the AL Central?
The same equation applies to Cleveland and Chicago atop the division. That comes out to: 9 + 1 - (75-75) = 10. So, the Guardians need 10 combined wins and White Sox losses down the stretch to secure the Central. This race should come down to the wire, even after a rousing head-to-head series win for the Guardians.
The White Sox have a marginally easier strength of schedule (.440) than Cleveland (.466) down the stretch, although both rank in the bottom fifth of the league. That means the window of opportunity is wide open for whichever team takes care of business. The Guardians can't match Chicago's offensive firepower, but the White Sox pitching staff is a complete mess. Cleveland, by comparison, boasts one of the best rotations in the AL, headlined by Rookie of the Year candidate Parker Messick and a seasoned ace in Gavin Williams.
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Guardians postseason matchups
Houston Astros/Chicago White Sox/Texas Rangers
With Wednesday's victory, Cleveland takes the AL Central lead and moves into the No. 2 seed in the American League. That would mean a first-round bye, awaiting the victor of the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup in the Wild Card round. Right now, that would mean the winner of Houston vs. Chicago, with the Astros playing host.
Houston has a ton of postseason experience and an MVP candidate in Yordan Álvarez, but their rotation is paper thin. It's a similar conundrum for the White Sox, whose youth is a less knowable variable. Those are two potent offensive teams who can't always prevent runs, but can Cleveland score enough in an October environment? It's the same question we've been asking for years now.
Should Cleveland lose to division and fall back to the No. 6 seed, that sets up a trip to face the AL West-winning No. 3 seed. Houston currently holds a one-game lead over the Texas Rangers, so that's a coin flip.
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