There was something poetic about a wet, soupy night in Minneapolis for the New York Yankees. For three months, the Yankees tried to survive without the best player in baseball. Aaron Judge went down with a rib injury in late May and didn't return until Sept. 8, a move the front office made without giving him a single rehab game. For that stretch, New York's offense was, by the numbers, one of the worst everyday lineups in the sport, which forced a real conversation about whether the front office should even buy at the deadline with its best hitter out indefinitely.
New York clinched a playoff spot anyway. A very long home run hit by Judge and Detroit handling Toronto was all the Yankees needed. Now, we need to get into what it means going forward for the Yankees.
The Yankees pitching staff is behind strong run differential
Bundled up against the wind and rain in Minnesota, the Yankees have the second-best record in the American League behind only Tampa Bay, well clear of Boston's 82-68 for the top wild card spot. The run differential gap is the story, and it isn't the offense driving it.
It's the pitching staff. New York's team ERA sits at 3.22, the best mark of any AL playoff contender by a wide margin, comfortably ahead of Boston's 3.59, Tampa Bay's 3.78, Cleveland's 3.79, the White Sox's 4.11 and Houston's 4.55. The peripherals back it up: a 3.73 FIP that trails only Boston's 3.70 for best in the group, and a 1.16 WHIP that trails only Tampa Bay's 1.14.
AL contender | ERA |
|---|---|
Yankees | 3.22 |
Red Sox | 3.59 |
Rays | 3.78 |
Guardians | 3.79 |
White Sox | 4.11 |
Astros | 4.55 |
A bullpen leaning on three or four arms
That's what let the front office spend the summer patching depth instead of scrambling to save a season, and it's needed patching. New York has taken real hits to the bullpen down the stretch: Ryan Weathers went down with a strained forearm flexor on Aug. 22 with no firm return timetable, Fernando Cruz is questionable for the rest of the year with elbow discomfort, and Kervin Castro is out for the season with elbow neuritis. Clarke Schmidt, still working back from Tommy John surgery, only began a rehab assignment on Aug. 29. Against that backdrop, claiming reliever John Schreiber off waivers from Kansas City on Aug. 31, just ahead of the postseason eligibility deadline, reads less like a depth flourish and more like a necessary patch, adding a sidearm arm who has handled right-handed hitters well this year to a relief corps that's been thinner than the ERA number suggests.
Team | Bullpen ERA |
|---|---|
Red Sox | 2.72 |
Yankees | 3.18 |
White Sox | 3.38 |
Guardians | 3.42 |
Rays | 3.64 |
Astros | 3.71 |
And even patched together, that bullpen is still performing. Isolating just the relief arms, New York's pen carries a 3.18 ERA, second among these six AL contenders behind only Boston's 2.72, and well clear of the White Sox (3.38), Cleveland (3.42), Tampa Bay (3.64) and Houston (3.71). It's less dominant by FIP, at 3.83, fourth of the six behind Boston, Cleveland and the White Sox, and its 1.21 WHIP ranks third, behind Tampa Bay and Boston. The shape underneath those numbers is uneven, too: Brent Headrick (1.94 ERA), Paul Blackburn (1.62 ERA) and David Bednar (2.66 ERA) are doing the heavy lifting, while Camilo Doval, Jake Bird, Tim Hill and Cruz are all running ERAs above 4.50. It's a bullpen getting real results from three or four arms while absorbing losses everywhere else, not the deep, complete relief corps the team ERA might suggest on its own.
Health questions still hang over the lineup
The lineup isn't fully whole either. Jazz Chisholm Jr. went on the 10-day IL on Sept. 8 with a sprained right thumb and has no set return date, and Trent Grisham landed on the IL days earlier with a hamstring strain that's also open-ended. Judge coming back doesn't erase those losses, it just means New York gets its best player back at the same moment it's absorbing new ones.
An offense built on power, not on-base ability
The offense itself is a study in contrasts depending on which number you trust. New York's wRC+ of 101 sits closer to the bottom of this group than the top, ahead of only Boston (101) and Cleveland (95), and behind Tampa Bay (105), the White Sox (103) and Houston (102). Actual runs created tells the same story: New York's wRC of 654 ranks fifth of the six, ahead of only Cleveland.
Their OPS (.721) is also second-lowest in the group, dragged down by the lowest on-base percentage of any AL contender at .312. But New York leads the same group in slugging percentage at .409. It's an offense that does more damage per swing than anyone else in this field and still struggles to simply get on base, which is exactly the kind of profile that can look unstoppable for a week and invisible for the next.
Defense that won't hurt them
Defense adds one more piece worth noting. By defensive runs saved, New York ranks third among these six contenders at 25, well behind Tampa Bay's major-league-leading 88 and Boston's 61, but comfortably ahead of Cleveland (12), the White Sox (-7) and Houston (-20). It's solid, unspectacular glovework playing behind the best pitching staff in the group, which is a fine complement, not a separate strength of its own.
The bottom line
Put it all together to explain why New York looks different than Boston, Houston, the White Sox or Cleveland heading into the final stretch. They employ a pitching staff that's clearly the best of the group, a lineup that hits for more damage than its overall numbers suggest even if it doesn't reach base enough, and defense that won't hurt them. None of the other AL contenders are pairing a top-of-the-league ERA with that kind of offensive profile, even on nights when the runs aren't showing up on the scoreboard.
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