We put every MLB contender through the World Series test, and the results are brutal

Barely a month remains until Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and the Los Angeles Dodgers begin the next part of their title defense. No National League team has ever won three consecutive World Series championships, but these Dodgers — who just added Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline, by the way — are built to make baseball history.

Predicting that the Dodgers will win the World Series is easy enough, and that also applies for the Braves and the MLB-best Brewers. The sportsbooks believe in those three teams, as well as an injury-ravaged Yankees squad. But what about the analytics and the advanced metrics?

Back in the summer of 2025, The Athletic provided an in-depth study of every World Series champion since the start of 2000 in hopes of noticing any common trends. There haven’t been too many successful Cinderella runs over the last decade, with the 2023 Rangers arguably the lone exception. 

And yes, the majority of the last 26 World Series champions have been elite teams. Some, like the 2000 and 2009 Yankees, featured multiple Hall of Famers. Others, like the 2010 Giants and 2015 Royals, were division winners who maximized a homegrown core and veteran free agent additions. But there had to have been some similarities, right?

Which analytics best help determine who could realistically win the 2026 World Series?

The Athletic used four specific analytical categories, all of which had a blend of traditional metrics and advanced stats, in creating the list. For all intents and purposes, those categories are winning, hitting, pitching (which had two subsections, which we’ll get to soon), and defense.

Not too surprising, right? Well, this is where things get interesting. Many of the last 26 World Series champions have:

• Ranked among the top 13 in two of three categories: Win percentage, run differential, and wins above replacement.
• Finished among the top 17 in OBP or top 11 in slugging.
• Placed among the top 11 in opponent batting average or top 16 in WHIP.
• Ranked among the top 13 in quality starts or fewest meltdowns.
• Finished among the top 11 in lowest BABIP allowed.
• Placed top 20 in batting clutch and fewest home runs per nine innings.
• Ranked top 25 in lowest batting strikeout rate and top 25 in speed score.

Some of those statistics, most notably meltdowns, clutch hitting, and speed score border on being subjective. We previously covered the hitting metrics in July, so today is an opportunity to revisit them and see what’s changed. We’ll also cover some of those pitching statistics, though now isn’t the time for an incredibly long deep dive.

In other words, get ready to read through a lot of numbers.

Evaluating the 2026 World Series contenders by the three winning metrics

As of Aug. 26, here are the teams who sit within the top 13 of at least two categories: win percentage, run differential, and wins above replacement.

Outside of the 2003 Marlins, every World Series winner has checked those boxes. You don’t need to have sat through a Joe Davis and John Smoltz broadcast to know how dangerous the Dodgers’ offense is, and the Braves are no slouches, either. The Yankees just got Cody Bellinger back in the lineup, and Aaron Judge is expected to return from his rib injury in September.

The Tigers’ presence is intriguing, though it doesn’t much matter because their playoff chances are minuscule. Detroit entered Wednesday at 62-70, placing them seven games behind the White Sox in the AL Central and 4 ½ games back in the Wild Card race.

Which 2026 World Series contenders have hitting working in their favor?

As of Aug. 26, here are the team who rank among the top 17 in on-base percentage or top 11 in slugging.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is poised to win his first MVP award, and rightfully so. He entered Wednesday having recorded an MLB-leading 6.8 bWAR, and he could potentially join the 40-40 club; he's at 33 home runs and 32 steals with 29 games left. 

Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki deserve their flowers, too. They've combined for 8.2 bWAR and nearly 150 RBIs, and the latter remains among the sport's more underappreciated players. Bregman hasn’t played at a superstar level, but he’s been a fine addition to a Cubs team that required more leadership.

Who are the 2026 World Series contenders with the best pitching staffs?

This is where we’re changing things up, because The Athletic’s pitcher evaluations are way too extensive and, as mentioned earlier, could be interpreted as subjective. Instead, let’s keep things simple and focus on the indisputable numbers.

Color us shocked that the Dodgers made yet another list. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper make it easy to forget about just how talented the Phillies’ pitching staff is, especially Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler. As crazy as it might sound, the latter has built a fascinating Hall of Fame case.

Credit to Matt Blake and the Yankees’ pitching staff, which is expected to receive a familiar face within the coming weeks. Clarke Schmidt, a rotation mainstay before last year’s elbow surgery, will pitch out of the bullpen down the stretch run.

Based on analytics, here’s which teams could realistically win the 2026 World Series

We could dive even further into the metrics, but the bottom line is that the analytics significantly favor the Dodgers. They’re unsurprisingly the only team that appeared on all three tables, and they also boast arguably the league’s most talented roster. There is a realistic chance that they overtake Milwaukee for the NL’s No. 1 seed despite Shohei Ohtani’s knee isues and the incredibly underwhelming seasons from both Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz.

But The Athletic’s initial list is exactly why plenty of fans still cringe when they hear analytics referenced in conversation. None of the five teams who either checked all five boxes or lasted "long enough" even advanced beyond the Division Series. Houston didn't even make the playoffs, yet the Astros qualified over the Dodgers or Blue Jays. Make it make sense?

Personally? Our World Series guess is the Braves and the Yankees, and not solely because this year marks the 30th anniversary of their thrilling Fall Classic showdown. The analytics likely disagree, but they also don’t factor in the magic of Ronald Acuña Jr.

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