If you’ve spent the offseason talking up certain teams or providing in-depth explanations about why other clubs are doomed for a terrible 2026, then you’d better get your betting slips in before it’s too late — and, yes, pun totally intended.
We’re finally on the verge of a new season, and with that comes the last rounds of discussion about preseason projected win totals. Unsurprisingly, the two-time defending champion Dodgers have the highest over/under for wins this season at 102.5, and you shouldn’t be caught off-guard when you learn the Rockies’ 56.5 is easily the lowest projectoin in the league. But what about the other 28 teams? Should you have faith in the Yankees, and what about the Padres? Are the Pirates due for a breakout after finally spending some money this winter?
For this list, we’ve grouped every by division and ranked them by projected win total. We’re using Caesars Sportsbook, with all win totals accurate as of March 24. With that said, let’s start with the only American League team predicted to surpass 91 victories.
Jump to a division
AL East
New York Yankees: 90.5
Over or under: OVER
The cynical part of me thinks that the Yankees will fall short and disappoint, but I almost always have that mindset. Barring an injury or massive regression by Aaron Judge, New York shouldn’t have much trouble clearing 91 wins after winning 94 a season ago. I’m especially interested to see if Jazz Chisholm Jr. can record his second consecutive 30-30 season ahead of hitting free agency.
Toronto Blue Jays: 88.5
Over or under: OVER
Bo Bichette is gone, though the Jays still have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk, the latter of whom has quietly become one of the league’s more underappreciated catchers. Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman headline an improved rotation on paper, though Toronto will be without Trey Yesavage (shoulder) and Shane Bieber (forearm) to start the season. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic and falling victim to recency bias after the Jays nearly won the World Series last fall, but I’m high on Toronto’s playoff chances.
Boston Red Sox: 87.5
Over or under: OVER
The Red Sox are my sleeper World Series pick, so I’m definitely taking the over on 87.5 wins. Even with Alex Bregman’s departure, I think the three-headed rotation trio of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez will be enough to carry this team. By the way, if you’re looking for a fantasy baseball sleeper, definitely look into center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, who has an intriguing power-speed combo and could eventually join the 30-30 club.
Baltimore Orioles: 85.5
Over or under: UNDER
I love the Pete Alonso signing, and I have very high hopes for Gunnar Henderson. With that said, this is way too high a projected win total for the Orioles. At best, they’re the third-best team in their own division, and they’ll play 39 games against the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox, all of whom I believe are in far better shape.
Tampa Bay Rays: 76.5
Over or under: UNDER
The more I think about young slugger Junior Caminero, the more skeptical I am that he'll come close to last year's 45-home run output. Remember: The Rays are moving back to the monstrosity known as Tropicana Field, so Caminero won’t be able to take advantage of hitting in a Minor League stadium anymore. We'll see whether Shane McClanahan, a two-time All-Star earlier in his career, can stay healthy after missing the last two seasons due to injury.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers 85.5
Over or under: OVER
Even if you don’t believe in the Tigers as a legitimate World Series contender, the only way I see this team finishing short of 86 wins is if Tarik Skubal is injured or nowhere close to his Cy Young form (or if he gets traded at some point between now and August). Detroit is built to win now in a mediocre AL Central, though reality obviously changes when the Tigers hit the playoffs and have to go up against the likes of the Blue Jays, Yankees and others. Don’t listen to anyone projecting that the Tigers will suddenly regress and finish with a losing record; this rotation is legit, and the lineup could be deeper than you think.
Kansas City Royals 82.5
Over or under: OVER
Of all the teams on this list, Kansas City is definitely one of the smarter, and more realistic, totals. I personally see the Royals as a team that will hover around .500, especially with my concerns about their starting rotation. If you asked me to predict their final record, though, I would say 83-79 or 84-78, so I’m naturally taking the over here.
Cleveland Guardians: 79.5
Over or under: OVER
The Guardians are in a very similar position to the Royals: I think Cleveland will barely finish with a winning record, so I have no problem with 79.5 being the total here. I typically don't like citing “recent history” for spreads or projections because I believe that context is vital, though I will note that the Guards have only had two losing records since 2013, and one of those years was an 80-82 finish in 2021.
Minnesota Twins: 72.5
Over or under: UNDER
Sorry, Twins fans, but I think this year’s club will be awful, and it definitely doesn’t help when your best player is the injury-prone Byron Buxton. Even if Joe Ryan has an excellent first half, that’ll only increase the questions about his long-term future in Minnesota. If it’s any consolation, at least Carlos Correa’s massive contract is now off the books.
Chicago White Sox: 67.5
Over or under: UNDER
To their credit, the White Sox improved by nearly 20 games last season, an incredible turnaround after their record 121 losses one year earlier. Can they realistically go from 60 wins to 68? I don’t see it, but I do believe that young shortstop Colson Montgomery is in for a massive sophomore season.
AL West
Seattle Mariners: 89.5
Over or under: UNDER
I expect regression to hit the Mariners hard, though I do think they'll still win the AL West without too much trouble. Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena can play their World Baseball Classic spat off all they want, and Seattle can try to pretend the past is the past. Is it ever, though? Luckily for the M's, there are so many questions about the rest of this division that it shouldn't matter much either way.
Houston Astros: 85.5
Over or under: UNDER
The 2026 Astros are a team of if’s, and that’s rarely a good thing. If Jeremy Peña builds off last year’s offensive improvements, then he’ll earn down-ballot MVP votes. If Yordan Alvarez stays healthy, he may finally surpass 40 home runs, and so forth. I’m not saying Houston will post its first losing record in a full season since 2014, but can you blame me for being down on them? Between their age and Framber Valdez leaving for the Tigers, I just can’t find myself buying (pun not intended) into this team in 2026.
Texas Rangers: 83.5
Over or under: UNDER
Honestly, I think that the entire AL West is a division full of if’s. My biggest concern with the Rangers is the rotation, because Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are both in their late 30s and both come with lengthy injury histories. Jordan Montgomery should be back sometime in the first half, though he hasn’t been an effective starter since the back half of 2023. After that, you’re asking MacKenzie Gore, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker to be competent starters, without much of any depth behind them. I’m taking the under here.
Athletics: 76.5
Over or under: UNDER
I love the Athletics’ young core, but I don’t love their stadium situation. Call me cynical, but I do not believe that an MLB team can consistently win while playing 81 home games in a Minor League ballpark, especially with this pitching staff. It’s too bad, because the A’s have the potential to be one of the league’s more exciting teams.
Los Angeles Angels: 70.5
Over or under: UNDER
If the Angels couldn’t win when they had Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, what chance do they have now? Need I go any further? At least Angels fans can enjoy Trout’s pursuit of 500 home runs. I’d call this a sad way for one of the best players of this generation to go out, but it's not like Trout couldn't have left by now if he wanted to. The Halos haven't had a winning season since 2015, and I don’t think last year’s 73-89 finish is a sign that things are on the rebound.
NL East
New York Mets: 90.5
Over or under: UNDER
Honestly, this isn’t even about Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz leaving in free agency. Last year’s collapse proved that the Mets simply are not ready to handle the pressure, even after an NLCS appearance in 2024. So, while I do expect New York to be in the playoff hunt, I think you’re playing with fire taking them to win at least 91 games. Juan Soto can only do so much.
Philadelphia Phillies 89.5
Over or under: OVER
The Phillies kept J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber around, and, unlike lead baseball executive Dave Dombrowski, I still believe in Bryce Harper. Philadelphia has a clear path to winning the NL East, especially given Atlanta’s rash of pitching problems. If you’re looking for a World Series sleeper, you could do a lot worse than the Phils.
Atlanta Braves 87.5
Over or under: UNDER
Spencer Strider will begin the season on the injured list with an oblique problem, and Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep likely out until the summer following elbow surgeries. Thankfully, Chris Sale is healthy and ready to contend for another Cy Young, but I don’t know if it will be enough for Atlanta to surpass 88 wins. Honestly, an 87-75 finish wouldn’t surprise me, and it’d be a very bad beat for anyone who takes the over.
Miami Marlins: 72.5
Over or under: OVER
Do I think the Marlins are a playoff team? Nope. Do I believe they’ll finish with a winning record? I’d be extremely surprised if they did. With that said, I definitely like taking the over on 72.5 wins here. Miami rode a strong second half last season to a 79-83 finish, and even slight regression should still net you a victory here.
Washington Nationals 64.5
Over or under: UNDER
This feels way too high a projected win total for Washington, especially with the organization deep into a rebuild in year one of a new front office. The clock is ticking on what feels like All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams’ eventual departure, and the Nationals demoted former top prospect Dylan Crews to Triple-A after an abysmal spring. At least the cherry blossom City Connect uniforms have since been retired.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: 88.5
Over or under: UNDER
Again, the Cubs are another team where, if you told me I had five seconds to predict their final record, it’d be within a game or two of the projected total. The problem, though, is that I would guess something along the lines of 86-76 or 87-75, even after Alex Bregman’s arrival in free agency. I just have this bad gut feeling about Chicago being slightly disappointing, enough to the point that you’ll lose if you bet the over.
Milwaukee Brewers: 84.5 wins
Over or under: OVER
The Brewers have become the latest small-market team that, no matter what happens, somehow finds a way to remain in the playoff chase and finish with a winning record. Tampa Bay did it for years, and Cleveland mastered that feat a long time ago. I have high hopes for infielder Brice Turang, who has quietly recorded 10.3 bWAR since the start of 2024. Turang’s OPS has jumped from .585 as a rookie to .794 last year, and he’ll play the entire season at age 26. If the Brewers once again find a way to craft an elite pitching staff out of spare parts, no one will be surprised.
Cincinnati Reds: 80.5 wins
Over or under: UNDER
People are way too high on the Reds, and I don’t get it. Elly De La Cruz is a terrific player, sure, but his defense and strikeout tendencies have me waiting for the other shoe to drop. Hunter Greene had elbow surgery earlier this month and could miss the first half, if not longer. Take the under and run here.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 78.5
Over or under: UNDER
I love that the Pirates were uncharacteristically aggressive this past offseason in trying to build around Paul Skenes, and I think fans will love the Brandon Lowe trade. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll be enough for Pittsburgh to win 79 games, which would be this team's highest total since 2018. Could another losing season convince Skenes and the Pirates to part ways?
St. Louis Cardinals 69.5
Over or under: OVER
No, I don’t expect the Cardinals to stun the world and sneak into the postseason. Projecting that St. Louis will lose at least 90 games for only the second time this century, though, is a step too far. This is an organization that always finds ways to remain respectable even while rebuilding, and there are still pieces here. This feels like an easy over.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers: 102.5
Over or under: UNDER
Don’t get me wrong: The Dodgers should still win the NL West, and I expect them to surpass 95 wins in the process. But there are only 58 instances of a team winning at least 103 games in baseball history, and asking a Los Angeles team in full "just get to October healthy" mode to do so with an unreliable starting rotation is too difficult for me to advise taking the over.
San Diego Padres: 83.5
Over or under: UNDER
I think the Padres’ magic has run out after several years of what I have personally viewed as outperforming reality. Fernando Tatis Jr. has the counting stats, but he's never emerged as the leader San Diego needs, and I’m just not sure how much longer Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts can hold off Father Time. Michael King absolutely has the talent to succeed, but can he stay healthy? And what does this rotation have behind him?
San Francisco Giants: 82.5
Over or under: OVER
The Giants are another team where 83 wins sounds about right, and I’m all in on Rafael Devers having a stellar 2026 season. I’m also not as concerned with the Tony Vitello hire as others seem to be, though for their sake, let’s hope this doesn’t turn out to be a Bobby Petrino or Urban Meyer situation where a college star flames out at the pro level.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 79.5
Over or under: OVER
A lineup featuring Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo would be good enough. Then, you add Nolan Arenado, who remains a plus defender at third, and you still have young catcher Gabriel Moreno behind the plate. The Diamondbacks are my sleeper team in the National League, and for good reason.
Colorado Rockies: 56.5
Over or under: UNDER
Suppose Colorado narrowly wins 57 games after last year’s 43-119 showing. That’s still a 57-105 finish, and it’d be the latest in a long step of miserable Rockies seasons. You might as well take the under here and be grateful that many of this franchise's most successful players, from Larry Walker and Troy Tulowitzki to DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado, went on to find success elsewhere.
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