The Hot Stove caught fire over the weekend, with Kyle Tucker joining the Los Angeles Dodgers and Bo Bichette joining the New York Mets. Neither outcome was expected, and the ripple effect on the rest of MLB free agency will be deeply felt.
Cody Bellinger, Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen are just a few of the noteworthy free agents still looking for a contract. The market has been set and the landscape altered. Now, let's determine where folks might end up.
DH Marcell Ozuna: Cleveland Guardians
The Braves could re-sign Marcell Ozuna in such a tepid market, but that would limit Sean Murphy's reps and a trade does not seem imminent. As such, do not be surprised if a smaller contender views this as a prime buy-low opportunity. The Cleveland Guardians would make all the sense in the world.
Cleveland can add 20-30 home runs at a discount price, with Ozuna just a couple years removed from finishing fourth in NL MVP voting. He's a mid-30s DH, which is historically not the most valuable archetype, but Ozuna still generates high exit velocities and he could even qualify as a bounce-back candidate after the stewing uncertainty of last season. The Guards need power like a man needs water in the desert.
1B Luis Arraez: Arizona Diamondbacks
Luis Arraez did his thing once again in 2025. He led the National League in hits with a .292 average, .719 OPS and 99 OPS+. Arraez is not a power through and elevate kind of hitter. But he can work deep into counts, shorten his swing, and find ways to poke a single to any part of the field. From there, his value is limited. But you'd think plenty of MLB teams would gladly roster the three-time batting champ.
Poor defense and laggy base-running, in addition to the complete absence of power, does complicate Arraez's fit just about anywhere. But the Arizona Diamondbacks typically have cash to throw around. Arraez can fit right into a specialist DH role, or he can split time with Pavin Smith at first base. Arizona plainly wants to contend next season. Arraez can still be quite helpful toward that end goal.
1B Rhys Hoskins: Miami Marlins
Injuries have taken their toll on Rhys Hoskins' career, but he still swung the bat well last season when available for the first-place Brewers. The 32-year-old posted a .748 OPS and 108 OPS+. Age is a factor at this point, as well as durability, but Hoskins' IQ and raw power still present ample upside on a short-term deal. He's also an above-average defensive first baseman.
The Miami Marlins filled out their lineup a bit with the Edward Cabrera trade, presumably slotting newcomer Owen Caissie in right field — and pegging Griffin Conine as the DH. Still, first base is a weak point in the lineup, and there was a time not so long ago when we thought Miami might spend this offseason. Pete Fairbanks is not enough; Hoskins' bat can help the Marlins sustain the unexpected success of last season.
OF Harrison Bader: New York Mets
Harrison Bader spent the 2024 campaign with the Mets, where he was not exactly beloved or productive. But a stellar bounce-back season in 2025, part of which he spent with rival Philadelphia, could persuade the Mets to come knocking once more. New York still has a glaring need in the outfield — primarily centerfield — and Bader does, in theory, fit David Stearns' M.O. as a defensive savant.
The Mets sacrificed their already-unstable defensive identity to sign Bo Bichette after their failed run at Kyle Tucker. That was the right move, but they need to stockpile quality gloves now. Bader is one of the best in the business at a premium position. Plus: if he can reignite even 90 percent of last season's offensive production, this Mets lineup begins to round into something scary.
SP Zack Littell: Arizona Diamondbacks
Zack Littell has proven quite durable since transitioning to starter full-time in 2024. The 30-year-old's numbers don't pop under the hood, but he does not give up free passes and he profiles as a steadfast No. 3 or No. 4 starter, which the Diamondbacks could use with Zac Gallen expected to sign elsewhere.
The pitching market has ballooned to an uncomfortable size in recent years, but Arizona has proven its willingness to spend a little extra on a quality arm. Ironically, many of those signings have fallen flat, which makes this hypothetical move rather essential. Littell can at least stabilize the back half of the Diamondbacks rotation, perhaps on a contract with a little length.
SP Nick Martinez: New York Mets
The Mets are probably done with huge contracts after the Bichette deal, but this rotation needs help. Nick Martinez has moved fluidly between starter and reliever over the past couple years in Cincinnati. Last season was a mixed bag — 4.45 ERA in 165.2 innings — but he was far more effective in 2024, and his baseline strengths still showed up in the analytics.
Martinez does not walk many batters and he's great at missing barrels, giving up precious little hard contact. He has a deep arsenal of pitches to poke and prod opposing batters, and he tends to skirt around the injury bug. The Mets can envision him as a No. 5 starter or a swingman. Either way, the depth and veteran know-how ought to help this New York pitching staff crystalize.
SP Chris Bassitt: New York Yankees
The New York Yankees will begin the 2026 season in a world of hurt on the mound. Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodón are all on the IL. The Yankees could aim much higher than this — perhaps with a trade for Freddy Peralta or MacKenzie Gore — but Chris Bassitt is a smart, low-stakes signing without much baggage. He also happens to come over from a division rival. Insider info can't hurt.
Bassitt is 36. He only has so much left in the tank. But with 30-plus starts in four straight years, Bassitt is a machine. He can help hold New York over until the stars get healthy. Then, he can stick at the bottom of the rotation or transition into a bullpen role, which Bassitt played successfully for Toronto in the playoffs. Bassitt leans heavily on his breaking pitches to generate soft contact and limit damage. He's a precision speed-mixer, not so reliant on stuff. That should help him maintain value into his late 30s.
SP Lucas Giolito: San Diego Padres
Lucas Giolito has proven both productive and durable for the majority of his career, his 2024 internal brace surgery — and the subsequent lost season — notwithstanding. Giolito bounced back well enough in 2025, posting a 3.41 ERA across 26 starts for Boston. The numbers under the hood are concerning, and no team should be paying a premium for Giolito at this point in his career. But he still has respect in league circles and there's a bit of upside now that he's another year removed from injury.
Assuming Giolito ends up on a short, prove-it deal, the San Diego Padres make all the sense in the world. AJ Preller desperately needs to flesh out this rotation, even after Michael King's surprise return. Giolito won't come close to replicating the nastiness of Dylan Cease, but he can give the Padres a proven arm every fifth game. Sometimes, that is enough.
3B Eugenio Suárez: Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox missed out on Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette (and probably Ketel Marte, too). That sets up a fascinating crossroads for GM Craig Breslow. There's a chance we see Boston stand pat and lean on the youth movement of Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. Or we could see another trade option, such as Brendan Donovan or Nico Hoerner, materialize.
The most likely outcome, however, might just be a one- or two-year contract for Eugenio Suárez, who mashed 49 home runs between Arizona and Seattle last season — and whose career numbers at Fenway ought to excite the locals, even if his defensive shortcomings and high strikeout rate temper expectations. Suárez, 34, only has so much left in the tank, but he's not a bad Plan D or whatever as the Red Sox attempt to gain ground on Toronto.
SP Zac Gallen: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies were blindsided by Bo Bichette's decision to sign with the Mets, upending weeks of expectation. Both Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto have re-signed now, but the Phillies need to keep pounding the pavement in search of upgrades. The pitching staff in particular could use a boost after Ranger Suárez inked his five-year, $130 million contract in Boston.
Andrew Painter is due for the MLB stage sooner than later, and Taijuan Walker was remarkably effective as a pinch starter last season, despite his reputation. But neither feels overly dependable for a team with World Series aspirations, and Zack Wheeler will begin the season on the IL. Zac Gallen struggled in 2025 — his worst campaign in the Majors, posting a 4.83 ERA in 33 starts. But he's durable and, at 30, there's still time to turn back the clock. The man finished third in NL Cy Young voting just two years ago.
SP Framber Valdez: San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants have stayed on the outskirts of major free agent negotiations so far this winter, but the market is ripe for Buster Posey to swoop in here. The Mets feel less likely to expend long-term money on Framber Valdez after the Bo Bichette deal. The Orioles are still in the mix, but Baltimore historically does not wield the same financial power as the Giants, a team with very clear rotational needs.
Valdez's next contract should land somewhere in the same ballpark as Ranger Suárez's deal in Boston. He's two years older, but Valdez has a remarkable track record of consistency over the years, which includes tons of postseason experience on a perennial contender in Houston. The Giants are so close to breaking through, at least as a Wild Card team. A three-man gauntlet of Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Valdez could get them over the hump.
OF Cody Bellinger: New York Yankees
Might the Phillies or Blue Jays pivot to Cody Bellinger at the last second after whiffing on Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, respectively? We can't rule out the possibility, and even the Giants could sneak into the race. But despite a lengthy standoff, a Yankees-Bellinger reunion feels like the inevitable outcome. Bellinger does not have the same market as Tucker or Bichette, and moreover, the Yankees are running out of options. New York truly cannot afford to let the former MVP slip away.
Say what you will about Bellinger's long-term projection, but he was an essential contributor to MLB's most explosive lineup in 2025. Bellinger has access to all five tools; he's a genuine power threat, a slick base-stealer, a versatile defender across the outfield spectrum (and occasionally at first base, too). The Yankees can probably get him to budge on that seven-year demand, as the Mets and Dodgers (probably) don't care for Bellinger at this point. The competition is waning.