The World Series is over, free agency began on November 2, and the General Manager Meetings loom as the first big offseason milestone, running Monday, Nov. 9, in Las Vegas and running through Nov. 12.
I'll be attending, and typically, the disclaimer here is that there is little movement at these meetings. It’s where teams and player representatives lay the groundwork for the months of negotiating, understanding what each side is seeking and what players may be available in trade talks.
That largely remains the same. But with an anticipated lockout, there is a chance for increased activity at the meetings. It’s unimaginable that players like Tarik Skubal and other high-end free agents come off the board. But it’s possible that a mid-tier player could come off the board. It’s possible that a trade or two gets across the finish line. Remember: the Angels traded for Jorge Soler a couple of years ago at the start of free agency.
It’s possible!
Still, what happens at the GM Meetings should lead to what league sources believe to be an active free agent market before the lockout. Before Dec. 1, it’s entirely possible that Skubal comes off the board. It’s possible that the other high-end pitchers follow suit. And it’s very possible that the trade market features plenty of big names as other teams eye deals with other teams with the free-agent class not viewed highly.
Here’s a preview of what’s to come.
Tarik Skubal leads a pitching market with plenty of suitors
As noted above, Skubal is the headliner of this free agent class, and teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will be among the teams involved. But as one league source asked this weekend: What other teams will be in the bidding?
For many teams, Freddy Peralta will be a more affordable option and what he did after being traded to Tampa Bay — tweaking his delivery and looking like the Milwaukee version of himself — bolstered his value and put him in the driver's seat to land a $100-plus million contract. The interest in the right-hander is expected to be massive, and the fact that neither Skubal or Peralta are eligible for the qualifying offer will only help.
Other pitchers who are the topic of plenty of chatter in baseball circles include Michael King, who opted out of his contract with the San Diego Padres, and Clay Holmes, a groundball pitcher who was the topic of many discussions at the trade deadline.
Offensively, Teruaki Sato was just posted by the Hanshin Tigers and will have massive interest. He’s the Triple Crown winner in Japan’s Central League and must sign before the lockout. Elsewhere, Brandon Lowe has TONS of fans across the league, and as one executive said recently: “He’s a f**ing beast, bro.” Seiya Suzuki could be too pricey for the Cubs and will have a qualifying offer attached to him, most likely. Luis Arraez was looking likely for a multi-year deal before his season-ending injury, and one team that loved him at the deadline was the Tampa Bay Rays.
A thin free-agent class could put big names in trade talks
This is where it gets interesting.
Among the top names who will be asked about in trade talks are Reid Detmers, Zach Neto, Drew Rasmussen, Ketel Marte, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, CJ Abrams, Jeremy Pena, Alec Burleson, Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes.
No, that’s not a guarantee that they all will be moved. But in a weak free agent class, it’s possible that teams will be motivated to be aggressive on the trade market. It’s also possible that teams will be hesitant to add a big salary for 2027 and beyond with the uncertainty of the lockout. It’s a game, one rival executive said, of the unknown this winter, and that’s part of what makes this so fascinating.
Detmers and Neto were the topic of massive interest at the deadline, and Detmers in particular had over half the league interested. Rasmussen is set to earn $20 million in 2027 and for the small-budget Rays, could prompt them to move on this winter, and there would be a long list of teams interested in prying him out of Tampa Bay. Kirby and Hancock were discussed plenty at the deadline, too, with some rival executives surprised that one wasn’t moved. Abrams has received repeated interest, but the Nationals place a premium on him, and the debate in league circles is if he’s a shortstop or outfielder moving forward.
Expect to hear these names plenty this winter. It also would hardly be a surprise if other names emerge on the trade market as teams look to get creative. Which is exactly what the GM Meetings are for.
Qualifying offers bring the offseason’s first major decisions
Among the players who will be in the qualifying offer discussion are Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, David Bednar, Jazz Chisholm, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Adrian Morejon, Ryan Jeffers, Jake Bauers, and Trevor Rogers.
It's possible that none accept the qualifying offer and elect to go through free agency. But it marks the first big decision that free agents and teams will have to make this winter.
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