Predicting the MLB Gold Glove winners was an easy task in the days before the explosion of advanced defensive metrics.
The formula was simple. Whichever player won the award at his position in his league the previous season would repeat and win it again the following season.
Voted on by league managers and coaches, the winners were players who had developed reputations as strong defenders. The top defensive metric was fielding percentage. Even before statistics like defensive runs saved and outs above average, baseball people knew fielding percentage was flawed, which is why the Gold Gloves were based on reputation.
Things are different today. DRS and OAA can immediately tell us who the best and worst fielders are in the major leagues, even if those metrics can occasionally contradict each other. With that in mind, let’s predict this year’s Rawlings Gold Glove winners. The actual winners will be announced next month.
American League
Catcher: Dillon Dingler, Tigers
Dingler emerged as an All-Star in his second full major-league season, and defense played a major role. Dingler led MLB catchers with 15 DRS. Dingler was also graded the best pitch framer, throwing out 27.4 percent of runners attempting to steal and picking off four runners. Dingler also hit a career-high 27 dingers, which has nothing to do with defense, but is fun to type.
First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
Guerrero had a subpar offensive season, hitting just nine home runs in the second year of a 14-year, $500-million contract. However, his 10 DRS led a weak group of AL first basemen. Little consolation, though, for the Blue Jays, who went from being a hair away from winning the World Series in 2025 to last place in the AL East in 2026.
Second base: Cole Young, Mariners
Here is why I am sometimes suspicious of defensive metrics. Young led AL second basemen with 16 DRS but graded out at minus-5 in OAA. I defer to Perry Hill, one of the best infield coaches I have known in 39 years of covering MLB. Fired by the Mariners earlier in the week, Hill told me Young “absolutely” had a Gold Glove season. I defer to Hill, bias or not.
Third base: Caleb Durbin, Red Sox
The diminutive Durbin’s defensive skills transferred easily from the National League to the AL after the Brewers traded him to the Red Sox just before spring training. Durbin helped the Red Sox reach the postseason by leading AL third basemen with 13 DRS and seven OAA.
Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
Witt has long been an OAA darling but hadn’t fared well in DRS until this season. He topped MLB shortstops in OAA with 24. Witt’s eight DRS were well behind the Rays’ Taylor Walls' 21, but most baseball people consider Witt the top defensive shortstop in the game.
Left field: Cody Bellinger, Yankees
Bellinger was the 2019 NL Gold Glove first baseman during a season in which he was NL MVP with the Dodgers. Seven years later, Bellinger is poised to be a Gold Glover at a second position after leading MLB left fielders with 21 DRS and finishing second in OAA with six.
Center field: Ceddane Rafaela, Red Sox
Rafaela should win his second straight AL Gold Glove following a season in which his 21 DRS paced MLB center fielders and his 16 OAA topped all AL players at the position. The Red Sox moved Rafaela from shortstop to center field in 2024, and it has proven to be a very good idea.
Right field: Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox
Abreu is either an extraordinary defender if DRS is your metric of choice or ordinary with the glove if you believe in OAA. Abreu’s 28 DRS led all major leaguers regardless of position, in part because he had an AL-best 13 outfield assists. Yet his net OAA was zero. Some scouts feel Rays rookie Victor Mesa, Jr. is better than Abreu, but the DRS total is eye-popping.
Utility: Ezequiel Duran, Rangers
Duran had seven DRS overall while playing 57 games at third base, 53 at shortstop, 37 at second base, 21 in left field, 18 in center field, 14 in right field, and three games at first base.
Pitcher: Tanner Bibee, Guardians
Bibee had a good season around the mound with five DRS. On the mound, he was a disappointing 7-15 with a 4.36 ERA in 33 starts but has a chance for redemption in the postseason.
National League
Catcher: Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks
Moreno has been one of baseball’s best-kept secrets but is finally getting noticed. He won the NL batting title this season with a .311 average. Moreno also topped NL catchers with 11 DRS while his nine OAA tied Marlins rookie Joe Mack and the Mets’ Luis Torrens for the league lead. And Moreno was charged with just two passed balls in 104 games.
First base: Matt Olson, Braves
Olson figures to win his fourth career Gold Glove despite a strong challenge from the Padres’ Ty France. Olson’s tally was 11 in both DRS and OAA. He led MLB first basemen in DRS while France paced big-league first sackers with 15 OAA.
Second base: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals
This one is a close call between the NL Rookie of the Year candidate and Brewers veteran Brice Turang. Wetherholt’s 25 OAA led all MLB second basemen, as did Turang’s 23 DRS. It’s a coin flip, but Wetherholt and Young as the Gold Glove second basemen would have some cool symmetry, as both grew up in Pittsburgh’s North Hills suburbs.
Third base: Alex Bregman, Cubs
The Cubs signed Bregman to a five-year, $140.03-million contract as a free agent last offseason to bolster their offense. As a bonus, Bregman is likely to win his second Gold Glove. Bregman’s 15 DRS tied the Giants’ Matt Chapman for the MLB lead, and his nine OAA trailed the Padres’ Manny Machado.
Shortstop: Masyn Wynn, Cardinals
Winn is in line to win the Gold Glove in back-to-back seasons, and he and Wetherholt, both 24, should give the rebuilding Cardinals strong middle-infield defense for years. Winn’s 19 OAA and 10 DRS led NL shortstops.
Left field: Jackson Chourio, Brewers
At just 22, Chourio has already strung together 20/20 seasons in each of his first three years, a big reason the Brewers have won four consecutive NL Central titles. Chourio is also turning into an elite defender. He led NL left fielders with 13 DRS and six OAA, positioning Chourio to end the Cubs’ Ian Happ’s streak of four straight Gold Gloves.
Center field: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
Crow-Armstrong is the heavy favorite to win the NL MVP award, but the race for the NL Gold Glove at center field is much closer, as the Dodgers’ Pedro Pages also had a great season defensively. Pages led NL center fielders with 20 DRS, and he topped MLB outfielders with 15 assists. Crow-Armstrong had 16 DRS, but his NL-leading 20 OAA more than doubled Pages’ nine.
Right field: Seiya Suzuki, Cubs
It seemed time for Suzuki to become a full-time designated hitter after posting a minus-5 DRS in 2025. Yet he jumped to 14 this season, the best mark among NL right fielders. That certainly boosts the 32-year-old’s value as he approaches free agency.
Utility: Mauricio Dubon, Braves
Dubon is trying to make it three Gold Gloves in four years during his first season with the Braves. Dubon had 10 combined DRS in 85 games in left field, 62 games at shortstop, 16 games in center field, eight games at third base, and four games at second base.
Pitcher: Shota Imanaga, Cubs
No pitching staff relied on its defense more than the Cubs, who lacked hard throwers in their rotation. Imanaga’s five DRS tied the Cardinals’ Michael McGreevey for the NL lead among pitchers, so why not give the Gold Glove to the spry 33-year-old?
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