Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The MLB trade deadline is approaching, and league execs describe asking prices as unrealistic.
- San Diego is listening on star reliever Mason Miller but unlikely to trade him given his performance and affordable contract.
- Toronto is trending toward being sellers with Kevin Gausman expected to draw strong interest despite a higher ERA this season.
The MLB trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and word from sources across the league is that while conversations have picked up, things have yet to really progress.
Which is to be expected with so many teams uncertain of their trade deadline direction. One prominent National League executive said that “most teams seem to be in the gathering info stage,” while an American League executive said that “action will pick up next week,” noting that the current asking prices across the league are “ridiculous.” Here's what else I'm hearing around MLB.
Why the Padres are unlikely to trade Mason Miller
The San Diego Padres will listen on star reliever Mason Miller. But that doesn’t mean a trade is likely. And at this point, I’m skeptical that the Padres will ultimately move him.
Before acquiring Miller last year, GM A.J. Preller coveted the right-hander, and ultimately parted with Leo De Vries and others to get him. Since being acquired, Miller has exceeded expectations and posted a 0.83 ERA in 62 games in San Diego, establishing himself as baseball’s premier closer. He’s also signed for three more seasons at a very affordable rate.
Preller isn’t typically in a hurry to move cheap, controllable superstar-type players, especially when the Padres are only three games out of a Wild Card spot.
But Preller will do what Preller does. He’ll listen on Miller, talk to teams about various scenarios that would help the Padres compete now and in future seasons, and canvass the market. But the Padres would need to be blown away to trade Miller, and while that could happen, especially in a sellers’ market, there’s skepticism in league circles that such an offer will come.
Clay Holmes is emerging as a legitimate trade candidate
At this point, an extension between right-hander Clay Holmes and the New York Mets ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline appears unlikely, multiple major-league sources say.
Things can change with one phone call, especially at this time of the year, so nothing can be totally ruled out. But Holmes is expected to draw significant trade interest in the coming days as he’s getting closer to returning from a fractured fibula that’s sidelined him since mid-May.
Holmes, when healthy, has been terrific for the Mets since being moved to the rotation. He posted a 3.53 ERA in 31 starts last season and had a 2.39 ERA in nine starts this season before the injury. He’s scheduled to throw three innings in a rehab start with Scranton on Thursday, and scouts from almost every contender will surely be in attendance.
The Blue Jays are trending toward becoming sellers
Toronto had World Series aspirations entering the year. Yet, they are 46-55 and 7-16 in their last 23 games and are trending toward becoming sellers. And rival teams are monitoring right-hander Kevin Gausman.
Gausman, 35, is expected to draw strong interest from rival teams, sources say. While his 4.51 ERA is the highest it's been since 2019, he’s been one of the most consistent innings-eaters in baseball. He’s pitched at least 31 games since 2021. His ERA has hovered anywhere from 2.81 to 3.83 in that stretch. And in a seller's market, Gausman will be a hot commodity.
Rival teams also have their eyes on free-agent-to-be Daulton Varsho. George Springer, in his 13th season, has 10-5 rights and can veto a potential trade. Others on the Blue Jays’ roster who figure to draw interest include Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer, among others.
The Orioles' next week could determine everything
Rival teams are watching the Orioles over the next 7-10 days in hopes that Trevor Rogers and Taylor Ward become available.
Yet, the Orioles are 50-53, three games out of a playoff spot, and have a legitimate chance at advancing despite a disappointing first half. If they ultimately buy, adding a high-leverage reliever, a starting pitcher and/or another infielder in the wake of Blaze Alexander’s injury would make sense.
Rogers and Ward, meanwhile, are both on expiring contracts. Teams in need of starting pitching are monitoring Rogers, who has performed very well after a tough start with the Orioles in 2024. Ward, 32, would be a rare right-handed bat available on this market, and while his power numbers are down (seven homers this year; 36 homers last year), he’s already up to a career-high 79 walks and is hitting .251/.386/.361 with a .748 OPS.
The Orioles’ deadline strategy, much like many other teams across baseball, likely comes down to what happens in the next week.
Don't expect the biggest catchers to be available
The current expectation is that star catchers Shea Langeliers, Adley Rutschman and Hunter Goodman are unlikely to be traded.
Ryan Jeffers of the Minnesota Twins remains a player of interest across the league, and rival executives are monitoring it. Others who could be available include the Twins’ Victor Caratini and Reds’ Tyler Stephenson, among others.
Josh Smith could help reshape the Rangers' roster
As noted recently, one move that the Rangers could consider is moving infielder Josh Smith to address a different part of the roster. Among the teams that make sense for the veteran include the Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins, among others.
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