Playoff baseball. The most wonderful time of the year.
The opening round features two fantastic rivalries with both Phillies-Braves and Yankees-Red Sox. It also features the rise of an emerging young White Sox team facing a playoff-tested Astros team, and two of the best offenses in baseball squaring off in the Cubs and Padres (who also face plenty of questions surrounding their pitching staffs).
Who steps up? Who advances? Here’s what I got for the Wild Card series.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
It’s not as if either team is exactly lighting it up at the moment. The Phillies narrowly escaped a collapse of epic proportions by clinching on the final day of the regular season and are without Luis Arraez, their prized trade deadline acquisition, who badly sprained his ankle late last week. Their Game 1 starter, Jesus Luzardo, just returned from left shoulder inflammation and it’s unclear how long he’ll go — or how effective he’ll be — after he threw a four-pitch eighth inning on Sunday.
The Braves, meanwhile, have a lineup that has struggled recently, with Ozzie Albies scuffling late and Austin Riley finishing the year slashing .219/.290/.364 with 19 home runs and 72 RBI. But what should give Atlanta optimism is the late-season resurgence of Ronald Acuna Jr., who hit .316/.365/.589 with seven home runs and 20 RBI over the last 28 days — which includes a 1.377 OPS against the Phillies.
Chris Sale gives the Braves a definitive advantage in Game 1 and Tyler Mahle, their underrated trade deadline acquisition, will play a key role in this series too. And what gives Atlanta the definitive edge is their bullpen, which features Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Didier Fuentes and Robert Suarez.
Series prediction: Braves in 3
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
I remember Brewers manager Pat Murphy saying early this season that the White Sox were coming and thinking, “What does he know?”
Turns out he knew everything.
The White Sox have been one of the best stories in baseball this season. They’ve been tremendous, and the Murataki Murakami signing looks like a stroke of genius by general manager Chris Getz. The return in the Garrett Crochet trade has played a key role in getting the organization to this spot and it’s why this should be the first year in a sustained run for Chicago.
The Astros, meanwhile, have the American League MVP in Yordan Alvarez and were 5-2 against the White Sox this season. But Houston's lineup is top-heavy and has been inconsistent at times in the second half of the regular season. Could the White Sox pitch around Alvarez and make someone else beat them?
I believe the White Sox do exactly that, and a winter of change in Houston begins as everyone across baseball is watching closely what happens with manager Joe Espada. Because if he’s let go, there will be other teams calling.
Series prediction: White Sox in 3
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
On The Baseball Insiders, Tom Verducci said it best: We wish this series was seven games. Because it promises to be electric.
This is going to be a pitching-dominated series with every game seemingly primed to finish 3-2 or 2-1. Cam Schlittler is the likely American League Cy Young winner and he’s joined by Max Fried and Gerrit Cole. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are trotting out Payton Tolle, the breakout left-hander, for Game 1, followed by Sonny Gray and offseason acquisition Ranger Suarez.
What this series ultimately comes down to is who is going to step up offensively? Willson Contreras, in one of the best seasons of his career, played for the first time Sunday after getting hit by a pitch on the hand on September 17. Ben Rice will be on MVP ballots and showed he can hit both right and left-handed pitchers in his 41-homer breakout season. But a series like this is why the Red Sox gave up five players to acquire Adley Rutschman. And I envision him stepping up to help Boston advance to the American League Divisional Series.
Series prediction: Red Sox in 3
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Truth be told, the San Diego Padres are my dark-horse team to win the World Series. They have the feel of an October darling.
Both the Padres and Cubs have been tremendous offensively in the second half of the season. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been electric, hitting .289/.358/.470 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI. Jackson Merrill is a star, and has hit 26 home runs this season. Manny Machado, even in one of the worst seasons of his career, hit 30 dingers.
The Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong, the eventual National League MVP, and lead the league in runs scored and OPS. Seiya Suzuki had one of the best seasons of his career with a 131 OPS+ and .841 OPS. Alex Bregman, who had 19 home runs in a dominant second half, has returned after suffering multiple facial fractures.
What this ultimately comes down to is pitching. Both teams have weaknesses in the rotation, but the definitive advantage lies in the Padres’ bullpen — where Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez form one of baseball’s most dominant units. This has the feel of a series that comes down to the wire in Game 3, and I have more trust in the Padres relievers to finish the job.
Series prediction: Padres in 3
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