MLB playoff picture: Updated bracket, standings and clinching scenarios

Shortly after rolling out of bed and being grateful that the dog didn’t chew up the pillow, Major League Baseball fans woke up Friday morning to see that we’re oh so close to having a finalized postseason bracket.

By this point, we have to hope you know that each league has six playoff spots. The White Sox officially clinched a postseason berth on Thursday afternoon and are one game behind Cleveland in the AL Central. Elsewhere in the AL, Houston and Texas are tied atop the West, but the Astros hold the tiebreaker.

Over in the National League, the Brewers and Dodgers have already secured home-field advantage, and the Braves will host the No. 6 seed in the first round. Whether that’ll be the Phillies or Diamondbacks, though, has suddenly become very interesting. 

The easiest way to keep tabs on how close teams are to clinching is by looking at magic numbers. The formula to calculate a magic number is as follows, per MLB.com:

• Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)

American League standings and playoff picture

Things are fairly straightforward headed into the regular season’s final weekend. The Yankees will host the Red Sox in the best-of-three Wild Card Round, though Aaron Judge’s status remains unclear. Aaron Boone has also hinted that Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham could be active next week, which would throw the playoff roster into chaos.

Whoever wins the AL Central gets a first-round bye, and the runner-up will hit the road to battle the AL West champion. Chicago locking up a playoff berth means that whichever team doesn’t finish atop the West will miss the postseason entirely.  

If the regular season ended today, here's a look at what the AL Wild Card round matchups would look like.

• Bye: (1) Tampa Bay Rays
• Bye: (2) Cleveland Guardians
• (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Chicago White Sox
• (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox

National League standings and playoff picture

The Phillies aren’t really going to blow this, are they? Don Mattingly’s club failed to clinch on Thursday night, and the surging Diamondbacks are still mathematically alive. Oh, and these two split the season series, meaning the league will use the second tiebreaker: intradivision record.

Arizona already owns that tiebreaker, having gone 31-18 against NL West foes entering this weekend's three-game set with the Padres. Philadelphia finished 28-24 in NL East play.

If the regular season ended today, here's a look at what the AL Wild Card round matchups would look like.

• Bye: (1) Milwaukee Brewers
• Bye: (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
• (3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) San Diego Padres
• (4) Chicago Cubs vs. (5) Philadelphia Phillies

MLB magic numbers: Which AL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?

Barring a three-game sweep by either the Rangers or Astros, the odds favor us seeing our first non-winning team reach the postseason in a non-shortened season. The 2005 Padres hold the current record for fewest wins by a playoff team, having finished 82-80.  

Regardless of what narratives you see on social media, we personally don’t expect Major League Baseball to change the postseason format anytime soon. The NFL seemingly never considered altering its process after the 7-9 Seahawks won the NFC West in 2010. If teams don’t like it, then they should win more games.

MLB magic numbers: Which NL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?

Luckily for the Cubs, they own the 5-1 head-to-head tiebreaker against the Padres. As for the Braves, they’re locked into the No. 3 seed and will host whoever claims the No. 6 spot. It’d certainly be something if the Diamondbacks overtook the Phillies, now wouldn’t it? 

The Phillies have no one to blame but themselves, though, having gone just 9-12 since the start of September. Did they enter the month automatically assuming they’d secure one of the three Wild Card berths? Because we certainly did.

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