With the MLB offseason officially underway, most of the attention has turned toward free agents like Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, and understandably so. No matter where they sign, those players will shape the offseason.
Trade candidates, on the other hand, don't get as much shine because it's far from guaranteed that they get moved. Buster Olney and Jeff Passan listed 12 possible trade candidates this offseason, and while it’d be fun to see all 12 on the move, the reality is only a handful will actually be dealt. With that in mind, here’s how we see it: the players staying put, the ones most likely to be traded, and the stars as good as gone (and where they might land).
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Stars most likely to stay put and why
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
I can understand why teams are going to call the Baltimore Orioles about Adley Rutschman. He's only under team control through 2027, he's had back-to-back lackluster seasons, and Samuel Basallo, arguably the best catching prospect in the game, who debuted in September for Baltimore, can take over for Rutschman behind the plate long-term.
For these reasons, the Orioles should listen to offers for Rutschman, but what are the odds that they'll get appropriate value for the catcher? Rutschman, at his best, is one of the best catchers in the sport. We saw him perform at a star level in both 2022 and 2023. Trading him now, fresh off a .673 OPS campaign, feels like a major mistake, and one Mike Elias will avoid making. The Orioles can, and presumably will, keep Rutschman behind the plate and use Basallo at first base or DH primarily. Revisiting Rutschman trade talk if he has a better year in 2026 makes more sense for now.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
McKenzie Gore's name surfaced in trade rumors around the trade deadline, and honestly, that was pretty disheartening. I have no issue with trading players for hauls, but Gore is the pitcher for the Washington Nationals to build around. Why would they seriously consider trading him barring an outrageous return?
He's under control through the 2027 campaign, so it's not as if he's a free agent this winter or next. He's only 26 years old, so it's not as if he's passed or even in his prime. Sure, he didn't finish particularly strong, but he was an All-Star for the first time in 2025 and has immense upside. The Nationals have a solid core to build around with guys like Gore, James Wood and C.J. Abrams leading the way. They should be focused on surrounding the core with talented players rather than trading Gore.
Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox
The only reason Wilyer Abreu is even on this list to begin with is because the Boston Red Sox have an outfield logjam. There are four outfielders (Abreu, Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela) for three spots. Anthony, obviously, isn't going anywhere, and there's a good chance that Rafaela, one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, will also stay put. That leaves Abreu and Duran as the most likely trade candidates.
I think the Red Sox will, and should prioritize holding onto Abreu, a player who hit 22 home runs, had a 116 OPS+ and won a Gold Glove in 2025. Abreu has more power than Duran, is a better defender, is cheaper, and has an additional year of club control. If the Red Sox are set on trading one of these two outfielders, it shouldn't be Abreu.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
I think it's fair to wonder whether the Detroit Tigers should trade Tarik Skubal. He's entering his final year of club control, and the odds of him agreeing to an extension with Detroit before he hits the open market, particularly with Scott Boras as his agent, are practically zero. Trading him now, to ensure they get a massive haul assuming they think he'll sign elsewhere next winter, makes a lot of sense, as painful as that reality might be.
However, Passan literally said, "as of now, the industry expects Detroit to hold onto him, even with his free agency approaching after the 2026 season." With that in mind, it's pretty clear Skubal belongs in this tier. Perhaps this changes, but until a report out there suggests he's more likely to get dealt, there's no reason to believe there's even a 50-50 shot of that happening. The same cannot be said about other players, though.
Players with a 50-50 chance to stay or go
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan was a popular name floating around at the trade deadline, but while the Minnesota Twins traded virtually all of his teammates, Ryan stayed put. This doesn't mean the Twins won't place Ryan on the trade block again this winter, but it does tell me that their price to trade him is going to be sky-high, and understandably so.
Ryan has ace upside, and is under cheap club control through the 2027 campaign. The Twins should strongly consider trading him now, as teams would be willing to trade more for two full years of him rather than one and a half or one, but they're not in a position where they have to move him. They can hold out for an absurd offer, which might come through, but I'm not so sure it actually will.
Potential landing spot: Chicago Cubs
If Ryan is traded, the Chicago Cubs are a team that could desperately use a frontline starter. Ryan could fill that void without breaking the bank for them financially. The Cubs have tradable prospects, and if they want to get back to the postseason in 2026, adding to their rotation feels like a must.
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals are not in as clear a rebuilding spot as the Twins, but with the Chaim Bloom era set to begin, it feels likely that they're going to head in that direction. Several of their veterans have already been linked in rumors, and while Nootbaar is only 28 years old, it's fair to wonder how much more time in St. Louis he has left.
Nootbaar is under club control through 2027. Assuming the Cardinals do rebuild or retool, they probably won't be ready to win before he hits free agency anyway. Trading him now to an outfield-needy team makes a lot of sense because of that, but they don't have to rush to trade him without the right offer in place.
Potential landing spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
The outfield was an underrated weakness for the Los Angeles Dodgers this past season. A Kyle Tucker pursuit would make a lot of sense for the reigning champs, but Nootbaar is a cheaper alternative who'd fit in nicely in the lower third of their stacked order for the next couple of years until one of their many outfield prospects is ready.
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
Since I believe Abreu will stay, it makes a lot of sense to have Duran in this tier. Duran was in trade rumors around the trade deadline, and while it isn't a guarantee that he'll get dealt, the outfield logjam makes this easy to consider.
Duran, even coming off a subpar year relative to his 2024 breakout, is still a really good player who comes with several years of cheap club control. He's going to be of interest to just about any team looking for outfield help, and can get the Red Sox a sizeable return. They don't have to trade him or any of the other outfielders - they can simply use one of them at DH - but there's reason to believe that if the Red Sox get a deal of their liking, they won't be shy when it comes to pulling the trigger.
Potential landing spot: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies need outfielders - there's no disputing that. Brandon Marsh is fine, but Nick Castellanos is as good as gone, and both Harrison Bader and Max Kepler will be free agents this winter. A Kyle Tucker pursuit would be the dream scenario, but assuming they re-sign Kyle Schwarber, making a trade for a cost-controlled outfielder like Duran might be more realistic. Plus, a lineup starting with Duran, Trea Turner, Schwarber and Bryce Harper would be really tough to contain.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
In an ideal world, Freddy Peralta's name would not be in this article. He's the ace of the Milwaukee Brewers' staff, and the Brewers are coming off a 97-win season. The unfortunate reality, though, is that the Brewers are a small-market team, and they're not shy when it comes to trading stars who are approaching free agency. Look no further than Devin Williams, Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes.
The Brewers will almost certainly make Peralta available, knowing he can (and probably will) walk in free agency next offseason, but look at Willy Adames, for example. The Brewers didn't trade him even though he was a pending free agent and were willing to let him walk as a free agent. With Adames in mind, the Brewers will presumably only trade Peralta if the right deal presents itself. There's probably a greater than 50 percent chance of that happening, but Brewers fans shouldn't put away his jerseys quite yet.
Potential landing spot: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have Hunter Brown under control, but their rotation in 2026 (and beyond) looks incredibly shaky beyond him, especially with Framber Valdez hitting free agency this winter. Peralta presents a cheaper Valdez alternative who won't require as much prospect capital to acquire as a guy like Tarik Skubal. Granted, the Astros can easily get outbid by other pitching-needy teams, but I do think Houston makes a lot of sense as a landing spot.
Trade candidates most likely to be moved
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Passan said this about Nolan Arenado: "One player widely expected to be moved: St. Louis third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is willing to waive his no-trade clause." Yeah, he's as good as gone.
Sure, we heard Arenado's name in trade rumors this past offseason, and nothing ended up happening, but that was when he was more reluctant to waive his no-trade clause. Now that Arenado appears willing to be more open-minded, it's far more likely that he'll end up on a new team in 2026. The Cardinals already have internal options ready to replace him, and with a rebuild on tap, there's no reason to believe Arenado will want to stay put any longer.
Potential landing spot: Los Angeles Angels
Admittedly, this doesn't make much sense for anyone. Arenado, a 34-year-old who hasn't won a World Series ring, presumably wants to join a contender, and the Los Angeles Angels, a non-contender, shouldn't want Arenado, who is clearly in decline. With that being said, Arenado is from Southern California, and there might not be a better team interested in his services. We've also seen the Angels do things I wouldn't do before. This fit is probably more realistic than we'd like to admit.
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
Arenado is the Cardinal most likely to get traded, but Sonny Gray feels as good as gone, too. He, like Arenado, has a no-trade clause he was unwilling to waive last offseason, but following another down year in St. Louis, appears more open to a change of scenery.
Gray is still a good pitcher, but at this point, he's 35 years old and 2026 is his final guaranteed year under contract. The Cardinals will want to go younger, and Gray should want to join a contender. His future is not in St. Louis, and everybody knows that.
Potential landing spot: Baltimore Orioles
Unlike Arenado, Gray should draw a good amount of interest around the league because starting pitching is incredibly valuable and he's still solid. A team that could show interest is the Orioles, given their past reluctance to hand out long-term deals and their need for starters. Gray could be a short-term fix that's relatively easy to acquire for a starting-pitching-needy team.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez is in more of a similar spot to Joe Ryan than we might expect. Both Lopez and Ryan are 29 years old, and both Lopez and Ryan are free agents after the 2027 campaign. The reason why I have Ryan in the tier above and think Lopez is as good as gone comes down to the money. Ryan is entering his second year of arbitration while Lopez is making $21.75 million in 2026 and 2027.
The Twins shouldn't penny-pinch as much as they do, but this team is very clearly trying to save money. Ryan doesn't cost much at all, and while Lopez is very affordable, Ryan probably won't even make the $21.75 million Lopez is in 2026 in his final two years of arbitration. The Twins will want to continue to tear things down, and they should get a nice haul for Lopez, a really solid frontline starter.
Potential landing spot: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were linked heavily to Ryan at the trade deadline and could easily acquire him, but Lopez won't cost as much to acquire because of his contract. The Red Sox are a team that should, and presumably will, be adding payroll, and they can choose to prioritize Lopez while the cheaper teams circle Ryan. He might not be as big a name as Ryan, but I'd argue Lopez is as good, if not better right now, even if Ryan has a higher ceiling.
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Perhaps it's a hot take that I think Steven Kwan is as good as gone from the Cleveland Guardians, but should it be? I mean, it felt like Kwan was going to get traded at the deadline until Cleveland elected to keep him around at the last minute. Kwan did help them get to the playoffs, but he was on the block for a reason - this is not particularly close to a World Series-caliber roster as constructed.
Additionally, the Guardians, like the Brewers, have a history of trading away star players before they hit free agency. Kwan might not bring much in the power department, but he's been a mainstay at the top of Cleveland's batting order for years now and has won a Gold Glove award in each of his four MLB seasons. The Guardians don't have to trade Kwan now as he's under control through 2027, but they aren't built to win now and the trade talks around the deadline were so loud to the point where it feels like this winter could be when he gets dealt.
Potential landing spot: New York Yankees
I think the New York Yankees should make a push to sign Kyle Tucker, but Kwan is a cheaper alternative who'd also be a nice fit. I don't think a lack of contact hitters is why they've fallen short in October, but one as pesky as Kwan would be a nice fit on this team, and his defense, as mentioned above, is extraordinary. Having him patrol Yankee Stadium's left field while being annoying to face in front of Aaron Judge certainly sounds appealing.