The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks enter Sunday in a virtual dead heat for the third and final National League Wild Card spot. Though the Padres have a 72-64 record and the Diamondbacks are 73-65, both teams have .529 winning percentages, though San Diego’s is a teeny bit better. Neither team holds an edge in the head-to-head tiebreaker, as they have split 12 games this season.
The rest of the competition for the final playoff berth has trailed off, as the Miami Marlins are four games behind and the St. Louis Cardinals are 4.5 games out. Thus, looming large is a three-game series between the teams to end the regular season from Sept. 27-29 at San Diego.
These Padres need to step up to make sure that final weekend at Petco Park is meaningful.
OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
The three-time All-Star right fielder is having a fine season, hitting .284/.353/.442 with 17 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 134 games. Yet Tatis can do better, as his .794 OPS is 61 points lower than his career mark of .755.
An encouraging sign is that Tatis is having a much better second half after hitting just five home runs and posting a .714 OPS in 95 games before the All-Star break. Since then, Tatis has homered 12 times in 39 games with a .301/.383/.608 slash line.
Tatis needs to continue that production over the season’s final month.
OF Jackson Merrill
Merrill has regressed since finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2024 to Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes. The center fielder’s OPS+ is just 98 this season, as he is hitting .239/.292/.420 with 22 homers and 24 steals in 133 games.
It might be unfair to be tough on a 23-year-old who is having a 20/20 season. However, Merrill has struck out 136 times in 558 plate appearances and drawn just 37 walks. In the high-pressure stakes of September, Merrill will need to tighten his plate discipline.
RHP Walker Buehler
The Padres signed the right-hander in the offseason with the hope he could be a veteran stabilizer in their rotation. Buehler hasn’t lived up to that expectation, going 8-6 with a 4.66 ERA in 27 starts.
Buehler has pitched at least six innings in just six starts. The Padres bullpen has been able to absorb the innings Buehler hasn’t provided, though an encouraging sign is his 2-1 record and 3.16 ERA in six starts in August. Given the injury concerns around Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove moving forward, San Diego will need its starters behind Michael King to pick up the slack. And speaking of which ...
LHP Robbie Ray
The Padres acquired the veteran left-hander at the trade deadline from the San Francisco Giants, and he has gone 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA in four starts. San Diego has a 2-2 record with Ray on the mound.
The 34-year-old may not regain the form that enabled him to win the 2021 American League Cy Young Award with the Toronto Blue Jays. However, the Padres would love to see the pitcher who was 10-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 22 games for the Giants this year.
Jason Adam
The Padres bullpen has been able to survive and thrive without Adam, who has been on the IL since June 30 with a shoulder strain. He is rehabbing at the team’s spring training complex in Peoria, Ariz., and the Padres are hopeful he can be activated in mid-September.
Adam has a 2.51 ERA in 36 games this year. However, he was an All-Star last year and posted a sub-2.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons. Relief pitching is the Padres' strength, and Adam’s return would make it even better.
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