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Phillies magic number update after Jesus Luzardo's shutdown outing

Philadelphia inches closer to the postseason.
ByChristopher Kline
Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies | Heather Barry/GettyImages

The Philadelphia Phillies earned a hard fought 1-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves on Monday, splitting their four-game series. A Kyle Schwarber home run in the eighth inning provided the Phillies' only run, while ace Jesús Luzardo put his name in the history books with a complete-game shutout.

Luzardo threw 109 pitches, allowing just two hits and a walk with 12 strikeouts. He now has a 2.87 ERA on the season with 221 strikeouts in 178.2 innings. Over his last 15 games, Luzardo has a 1.51 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, with a crisp 9-1 record. There is no hotter pitcher in baseball at the moment, and Luzardo is helping the Phillies charge toward another postseason appearance.

NL East standings after Jesús Luzardo blanks Braves

Team

Record

Games Back

Atlanta Braves

85-59

--

Philadelphia Phillies

81-63

4.0

Miami Marlins

72-72

13.0

Washington Nationals

67-78

18.5

New York Mets

65-78

19.5

After Ronald Acuña led a triumphant late-innings comeback on Sunday, the Phillies were able to even the score and even the series. Philadelphia surely would have loved to make up some ground on the Braves in this series, but both teams will meet against soon, with a three-game series in Atlanta starting on Friday, Sept. 11. That will be another opportunity to cut into Atlanta's division lead, although Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle and the Braves' best pitchers will be lined up against the Phils.

It would be misleading to call this division race "wide open" with three weeks left in the season. Atlanta has built a nice cushion for itself and will get a chance to properly close the book, all but officially, later this week. That said, it's not over yet. If Philadelphia comes into Atlanta and steals two or three games, the gap between them will shrink expeditiously.

Phillies magic number: What Philadelphia needs to clinch a playoff spot

A magic number effectively means the required number of wins or rival losses necessary to clinch a postseason berth. The Phillies' number is now 14 with 18 games remaining on the schedule. There is much left to play for, but Philadelphia now has 99.5 percent odds of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. Their chances to win the division sit at 9.4 percent, which is low — but certainly not zero.

The Phillies are now tied in the standings with the Chicago Cubs; that is shaping up to be the No. 4-vs-No. 5 matchup in the NL Wild Card round, assuming the Braves end up clinching the division. Moreover, Philadelphia holds a 5.5-game advantage over the seventh-place San Diego Padres, who are the first team out of the postseason right now.

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